Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The A350-900 explore its longer range capability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 7, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus signed an MOU with Philippine Airlines for six A350-900 with options for six more at Singapore Air Show. The deal is significant because the airline’s President & COO, Jaime J. Bautista, said that the aircraft’s range played an important role in the selection process.
The A350-900 was not designed as an especially long range aircraft, not more so than its main alternative, the Boeing 787-9. Yet in two recent selections, for Singapore Airlines and now Philippine Airlines, the range of the A350-900 has won the deal for Airbus. We explain why.
Summary:
- The Boeing 787-9 has a standard range which is equal to the A350-900, around 7,600nm measured under equal conditions.
- Yet the A350-900 comes out on top when Airbus and Boeing are asked to offer extended range versions of these aircraft.
- We use our proprietary aircraft model to go behind the scenes and investigate what makes the A350 more adapted to stretches into the space of ultra-long-range aircraft than Boeing’s 787-9.
IRKUT MC-21 analysis, Part 3. The Russian engine alternative
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Feb. 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In two articles we have been looking at the new Russian single-aisle aircraft, Irkut MC-21from United Aircraft. Now it’s time to analyze the new Russian engine, PD-14, which is offered as an alternative to the base engine for the aircraft, the Pratt & Whitney PW1400G. 
Summary:
- The PD-14 is a new engine designed by the Aviadvigatel company, a merger of the Soloviev design bureau with the Perm engine company.
- PD-14 is a modern 31klbf design aimed at several Russian aircraft, the first being the MC-21.
- The technology and performance of the PD-14 engine are approaching its Western counterparts, Pratt & Whitney PW1400G and LEAP-1A, but not quite reaching their level. We go through where it differs. Read more
IRKUT MC-21 analysis, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
Feb. 24, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Two weeks ago we started our analysis of the new Russian single aisle aircraft, United Aircraft’s Irkut MC-21. We looked at key design features and compared these to the Airbus A320.
We also analyzed the passenger capacity where we found that the model which will start flight testing, the MC-21-300, has a capacity between the A320 and the A321. The closest aircraft in capacity and performance in the MC-21 lineup versus the competition would be the MC-21-200 and A320neo.
We have therefore decided to do our efficiency analysis between these variants.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320. This is a positive as it allows passengers to pass each other in the aisle of the cabin.
- The drawback of the wider fuselage is a bit higher aircraft drag.
- Coupled with a lower wing aspect ratio, the lighter MC-21 cannot open a fuel consumption advantage over the A320neo, despite being a more modern design.
Welcome news for Bombardier, Mitsubishi
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Introduction
Feb. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The large order (Letter of Intent) last week by Air Canada for 45 firm and 30 option CS300s was welcome news for Bombardier.
And the LOI from the US lessor, Aerolease, for 10+10 MRJ90s was welcome news for Mitsubishi.
We take a look at both announcements and what this means for the two programs.
Summary
- The Air Canada order breaks the long drought in C Series orders, but it’s not enough for smooth sailing (to mix metaphors) for the aerospace company.
- Continuing the mixed metaphor, Bombardier still has a long hill to climb.
- MRJ order, by little known lessor, helps diversify customer base.
Bombardier earnings preview
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Introduction
Feb. 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier’s fourth quarter and full year 2015 financial results will be reported
Wednesday, and we don’t expect the situation to be pretty.
Yes, officials will highlight the recent closing of the sale of 30% of the Transportation (Rail) subsidiary.
Yes, the C Series is now on a world tour and appearing at the Singapore Air Show this week.
Yes, the CS100 will enter service in the second quarter.
Yes, the CS300 should be certified, delivered and enter service before the end of this year.
But missing will be any concrete information about new orders.
Summary
- Still no C Series orders since September 2014.
- Bombardier has its hand out for more government aid.
- ATR is making a new push in China and North America, the latter a stronghold for the Q400.
Dissecting Boeing cost-cutting
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Introduction
Feb. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co. The news yesterday that Boeing is undertaking a new round
of cost-cutting has been buzzing around management and labor circles for months.
LNC last year began hearing management at Boeing Commercial Airplanes would likely face personnel cuts of 10% to 15%. Cuts were expected within the marketing/sales departments, in part due to struggling sales of the 7-Series airplanes, sources told LNC.
The leading labor unions, SPEEA (engineers) and IAM 751 (touch labor), each told LNC last year they expected workforce layoffs were in the future.
More ominously, a consultant who occasionally worked with Boeing, told LNC that the elevation of Dennis Muilenburg from president and chief operating office to president and CEO (and, eventually, chairman) would make former CEO Jim McNerney’s cost- cutting efforts pale by comparison.
Summary
- Major layoffs predicted at Boeing’s Share Services Group.
- Work continues to be shifted out of Washington State.
- Large number of retirements at IAM and SPEEA expected by year end.
- Airbus pricing pressure, 787 deferred production costs, commitments to shareholders and 777X squeeze cash flow.
- “Mac the knife.”
Discussion Read more
Can the 787 pay its debts?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
04 February, 2015, © Leeham Co: Boeing has presented its results for the last quarter of 2015. It was a quarter for Boeing with solid performance in revenue ($96.1bn) and in cash generation ($9.4bn).
Despite that, Wall Street was not pleased. The 747-8 program is not selling well and the upcoming production bridges for 737NG to 737 MAX and 777 to 777X are no longer to be ignored.
The results presentation is also our chance to check our analysis around the 787 program; will it be able to pay its debts within the forecasted period by Boeing (in the program accounting block of 1,300 units)?
Summary:
- Boeing reports deferred costs in line with or slightly better than expectations. We decode what this means for the deferral curve for the 787 and from which parts of the 787 program the improvements came.
- Smith also gave new information regarding learning effects for 787-8 and 787-9 and when the 787 goes cash positive. We check if this changes any of our assumptions for our forecast for the program. Read more
A380 order welcome, but may not add to Airbus backlog
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Introduction
The news of orders by Iran Air and ANA for 12 and three A380s respectively is good news for Airbus, but 
these probably don’t do much to boost the backlog in practical terms.
These orders will likely replace some of those in the A380 backlog that are unlikely to be delivered.
In our annual examination of the backlogs of Airbus and Boeing, little has changed for the A380—until the Iran Air and ANA orders, there hasn’t been a sale of the A380 in more than two years.
Summary
- As deliveries continue, the backlog shrinks.
- Orders from Virgin Atlantic are deferred and unlikely to be delivered. Look for a swap to another Airbus aircraft.
- Amedeo has yet to place any of its orders. First deliveries in 2017.
- Air Austral orders deferred, unlikely delivery.
Airbus needs more vertical integration, says official
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Introduction
John Leahy, chief operating officer-customers. Airbus photo.
March 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus may well have avoided the supplier-driven delivery delays on its A350s had the company brought some key work in-house and become more vertically integrated, says its chief operating officer-customers.
Airbus has been bedeviled by delays in business class seat and galley deliveries from supplier Zodiac, resulting in delayed deliveries of the A350-900 to several airlines.
John Leahy, in an interview with LNC at the International Society for Aircraft Transport Trading (ISTAT) conference Feb. 29-March 1 in Phoenix (AZ), said Airbus shouldn’t be at the mercy of suppliers of interiors. His wide-ranging interview also touched on several other topics.
Summary
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Posted on March 3, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, ISTAT, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
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