Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Airbus risks losing market share if it doesn’t boost A350 production
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Introduction
June 11, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing is increasing the production rate of the 787 next year from 12 to 14/mo.
Airbus is reducing the production rate of the A330neo from 10 to 6/mo.
Last year, buried deep in its website, Airbus indicated plans to go to rate 13/mo, although no date was listed.
With few sales of the airplane last year or so far this year, will demand support a rate hike next year? If so, a decision is needed pretty much now to go forward.
One London-based aerospace analyst tells LNC the top executives say no rate hike will be coming.
Scheduled deliveries may lend a clue.
Summary
- Boeing is winning the wide-body order race and retaken the lead in market share.
- Airbus’ former top sales chief bemoaned the lack of delivery slots for the A350.
- Supplier issues still slow A350 deliveries.
Pontifications: Photo essay
By Scott Hamilton
June 11, 2018, (c) Leeham News: In a change of pace, here are a number of photos gathered from recent visits to museums in the US and Canada.
Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum of Kansas City Downtown Airport, Photo by Scott Hamilton.
The Lockheed L-1049 Constellation of the Airline History Museum in Kansas City is labeled the Super G, but it actually is an H model, delivered as a passenger/freighter. It was restored to G markings in TWA colors. The airplane was airworthy until 2007, when an engine fire prompted the museum to park the airplane. AHM hopes to restore the airplane to flying operation.
How competitive is A330neo? Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 7, 2018, © Leeham News: In Part 1 we compared the base characteristics of Airbus’ A330-900 and Boeing’s 787-9. In Part 2 we compared the fuel consumptions. Now we continue with the other costs of operation.
With these we form Cash Operating Costs and then add capital costs to get Direct Operating Costs.
Summary:
- The operating costs for the A330-900 and the 787-9 are close.
- The difference can be compensated with lower capital costs. Monthly lease rates for the A330-900 are below the 787-9 lease rates.
- We think there are other Boeing strengths which turn the deals the 787 way.
How competitive is A330neo? Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 31, 2018, © Leeham News: We continue our analysis why the Airbus A330neo has lost to Boeing’s 787-9 in recent sales campaigns. In the first part of the series, we analyzed the key data of the aircraft, including their weight, drag characteristics and payload capacity.
Now we continue with flying the aircraft over typical routes with our performance model. What’s the route capacity of the of the aircraft and how about their fuel consumption?
Summary:
- The equalized range difference between the aircraft boils down to a maximum of 15-hour routes for the A330-900 versus 17 hours for the 787-9.
- There is also a difference in fuel efficiency between the types.
How competitive is Airbus’ A330neo?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 24, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 787-9 has won some important fights against the Airbus A330neo. After Hawaiian Airlines, American Airlines and a possible loss at United, one asks: Is the A330-900 not competitive against a 787-9? The aircraft are similar in size and use the same engines.
We take a deeper look at the A330-900 compared with the 787-9 to understand what’s behind this trend.
Summary:
- The A330-900 and 787-9 are virtually identical in size.
- They are also aerodynamically closely matched.
- Their primary difference is the method of construction, with the Carbon Fiber structure of the 787 giving a lower empty weight.
Boeing 777-9 or Airbus A350-1000 for the Gulf carriers?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 17, 2018, © Leeham News: The recent agreement between the US and the Gulf carriers limits the expansion of the carriers on the US market. As the premier long-range destination area from the Gulf is the US market, this will influence the lift needed by the three.
All three carriers, Emirates, Qatar Airways (Qatar) and Etihad, have decided on the 777-9 as the mainstay for their long-haul needs. With the change, the question arises, will Qatar increase the buy of the A350-1000 instead of taking the 777-9 and will any of the others reconsider?
To understand what’s involved we compare the capacity and the costs of the 777-9 and A350-1000. How large is the difference? Is the A350 the better choice if the extreme long-haul capacity needs decline?
Summary:
- The maximum range and per seat costs of the 777-9 and A350-1000 are close when compared apples to apples.
- The advantage for the 777-9 at full aircraft disappears quickly as load factors decline.
- If the needed capacity of the long-haul US routes declines, the 777-9 can be too much aircraft for the Gulf carriers.
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Pontifications: Engine problems are getting worse
By Scott Hamilton
May 14, 2018, © Leeham News: The engine problems are getting worse.
These have moved beyond the technical issues with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000, GE Aviation GEnx, Pratt & Whitney GTF and CFM56.
The problems are trickling down to the maintenance, repair and overhaul shops.
LNC previously touched on the back-up in MRO shops due to the RR Trent 1000 problems, affecting even Trent 700 (Airbus A330) MRO scheduling. We’ve also reported the knock-on effect of the GTF MRO on other engine shop visits.
The mandated-inspections of CFM56 fan blades in the wake of the Southwest Airlines accident last month inundated MRO shops with unexpected visits.
Now, a European appraisal company forecasts that the “bow wave” of CFM56 shop visits will create a crisis for spare engines and parts.
32 Boeing 787s are AOG due to Rolls-Royce Trent issues; number will climb
April 27, 2018 © Leeham Co.: There are 32 Boeing 787s grounded because of problems with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-C engines and the number will rise “a bit,” LNC has confirmed.
The US Federal Aviation Administration and Europe’s EASA this month issued Airworthiness Directives that limit ETOPS to 140 or even 60 minutes from the 330 minutes certified originally.
A Royal Brunei Boeing 787 sat engineless April 12 at Paine Field, awaiting Rolls-Royce powerplants. Photo by Jennifer Schuld.
Following the AD and inspections, the number of grounded aircraft rose from 15-20.
The limitations balloon costs on trans-ocean flights and render trans-polar flights impossible.
Engine deliveries affects Airbus 1Q2018 results
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 27, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Airbus Group presented its 1Q2018 results this morning. It’s heavily influenced by A320neo engine delivery delays.
Only 30 A320neos were delivered during Q1 out of a year total of 400. This has left Airbus with 60 A320neo gliders parked at Toulouse and Hamburg, waiting for engines.
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Airbus’ Ultra Long Range A350 starts flight test
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus Ultra Long-Range version of the A350-900 took off for the first time Monday. The aircraft will conduct a short flight test program before being painted in Singapore Airlines’ colours and handed over after the summer.
Airbus touts the A350-900URL as an aircraft which can fly ultra-long routes with flight times up to 20 hours and distances of 9,700nm. So, what so different with this aircraft to the normal A350-900? We use our performance model to show where the differences are.
Summary:
- The A350-900URL has got a higher fuel capacity to extend its range when used as an Ultra Long Range aircraft when loaded with fewer than 250 passengers.
- At the passenger counts where Singapore Airlines will operate the aircraft, the additional range is about 1,000nm.
- For normal operations, there would be no gains.