Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Leahy’s retirement from Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 14, 2016, © Leeham Co.: News emerged last week that Airbus super-salesman John Leahy has a new deputy, Kiran Rao.
A new title for Rao wasn’t revealed in the Bloomberg story. He currently is EVP-Strategy and Marketing, so he already was right up there behind Leahy.
But the report, which is presumed true (Bloomberg has a good track record on this sort of thing) is pretty clear indication that the 66-year old Leahy is soon to retire and Rao is almost certainly his successor.
Leahy is Chief Operating Officer-Customers for Airbus Commercial.
CSeries out of London City Airport, Part 2. UPDATED 2017.01.24
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
This article, which was published on the 14 November, has been updated with new information from Bombardier. The range of the CS100 from London City airport has increased due to improved performance from the aircraft and a new engine version with more thrust, the PW1535G engine.
November 14, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In the last article about operating the Bombardier (BBD) CS100 from London City Airport (LCY), we could see that the runway is about half the length of an international airport’s runways. This will have a significant impact on the Take Off Weight (TOW) that can be used when commencing a route from London City.
Figure 1. London City airport, housed in the docklands of London’s east end. Source: Wikipedia.
The manufacturers have data in their aircraft brochures that state that one should be able to takeoff with e.g. the CS100 at Maximum Take Off Weight (MTOW) from a runway which is 1,463m/4,800ft long. London City Airport’s runway is 1,508m/4950ft long, so then things should be fine?
No, the figures from the OEMs is the planning figure for actual runway used and London City airports usable take-off Runway is given as 3,934ft. In addition there is 394ft stopping distance available.
To understand how this can be used required a bit of information that we did not have at the time of writing the original article. Some of the information we used was not up to date and we did not use the strongest engine available (PW1535G) when analyzing if an operator could fly direct between New York from London City.
Bombardier came to our help and we have now been able to update the data with which to feed our performance model. This shows among other things that it’s possible to operate a direct connection between London City airport and New York, given that the number of passengers (the payload) is restricted to around 50 passengers or below.
We have revisited the two cases, SWISS European operations from London City and how would a direct operation London-New York work. You find the updated article below.
Summary:
- London City Airport puts special requirements on the aircraft serving it.
- It puts stringent requirement for takeoff and approach/landing.
- We use new information and our performance model to present what routes can be served with a CS100 from the London City Airport.
Clouds overhang Bombardier ahead of earnings call
Subscription Required
Introduction
Nov. 9, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier reports its 3Q2016 and nine month earnings Thursday and as the year prepares to enter its last 45 days, disappointment 
hangs over the company and the stock.
Summary
- Despite winning firm orders for the CSeries from Air Canada and Delta Air Lines early in the year, no other new orders have been announced.
- Deliveries of the CSeries will only be about half those projected, due to engine delivery delays from Pratt & Whitney.
- The $1bn investment from the federal Canadian government hasn’t been achieved, but an announcement may come as early as next week that an agreement has been reached.
- Boeing revised the design of the 737-7 to sit “right on top of” the CS300.
- Embraer (Brazil) is taking the government bailout of CSeries to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in inquiries, with the USA lending support.
Flying the CSeries
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 09, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After my preparations at Bombardier (BBD) in Montreal, it was time to take an early flight to BBD’s test center in Wichita (KS) the next day. We spent the afternoon in briefings and went flying Wednesday.
Figure 1. FTV8 (CS300) and FTV2 (CS100) at BBD test center. Source: Leeham Co.
The trip to Wichita was with American Airlines regional carrier American Eagle on a BBD CRJ200. Within two days, I would experience the first and smallest regional jet, the CRJ200 (albeit in coach) and Bombardier’s latest and largest jet, CS300, which encroaches on the turf of the single aisles as a direct competitor to the Airbus A319 and Boeing 737-700/7.
At the test center, just off the runway to Wichita International, I would be joined by Mike Gerzanics, who was test flying for FlightGlobal. We last met when we test flew the Airbus A350 in Toulouse in Spring 2015. Read more
Pontifications: Hawaiian Air ponders A380
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 31, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Hawaiian Airlines continues to ponder the possibility of acquiring one or two Airbus A380s, its CEO said on the third quarter earnings call—something that raises eyebrows and a lot of questions with industry officials.
Mark Dunkerley, responding to a question on the call, said there are two or three routes that could support the giant A380.
Bjorn’s Corner: Turbofan engine challenges, Part 1
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 28, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Before we go into the details on the innards of airliner turbofans, we will look at some basics. We do that so that everyone is on the same page.
A turbofan engine generates thrust by pumping air out the back of the engine. This air has a higher speed than surrounding air. Air is actually quite heavy: it weighs 1.2kg per m3 at sea level. By kicking out air at an overspeed in relation to the aircraft, thrust is generated.
In a modern turbofan, the kicking gets done by the fan to 80-90% in the modern By Pass Ratio (BPR) 8-10 engines. A single aisle engine generating 10 tonnes of thrust throws around 350kg of air per second backwards at close to sound speed in a take-off situation. To drive the fan to do that, there is a lot of shaft horse-power needed, around 30,000hp.
Figure 1. Work cycle for jet engine/turbofan core compared to car engine. Source: Rolls-Royce book “The Jet Engine.”
These hp are generated by the core. The thermodynamic cycle to generate all these hp in a jet engine or turbofan core (we call both a gas turbine) is like the one in a normal car engine, Figure 1, with the difference that it is a continuous cycle.
We will now go through this cycle in steps. Read more
Counting down to 737-10, NMA
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Introduction
Oct. 27, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing faces decisions in the near term on whether to proceed with the 737-10 stretch of the MAX 9 and the New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) to serve the Middle of the Market sector (MOM).
The 737-10 is intended to compete with the Airbus A321neo, stemming significant bleed at the top end of the 737 line.
The NMA will address the top end of the MOM sector, carry more passengers and have more range than the Boeing 757 and A321neoLR.
Boeing still has critical issues facing it before proceeding with either airplane.
Summary
- A simple stretch to create the 737-10 has technical and operational issues.
- The proposed date for entry-into-service still gives Airbus an insurmountable lead.
- The market for the 737-10 remains limited. Is the return on investment there?
- The market for the NMA is identified in the abstract—but price will be a key driver.
Visit to Bombardier for airBaltic CS300 roll-out
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 27, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: This week we have been at Bombardier (BBD) Mirabel Airport outside Montreal to observe the roll out of the airBaltic CS300 CSeries model and to later test fly the aircraft at BBD’s Wichita facility.
The preparation for the test flight and the flying experience will be described in subsequent articles.
Figure 1. airBaltic’s first CS300 rolled out for local media to see. Source: Leeham Co.
airBaltic will take delivery of the first CS300 by the end of November. This event was for Baltic media to see the aircraft and its final livery for the first time. It was fresh from the paint shop. The group also was able to see the CSeries Final Assembly Line (FAL) and to ask questions to airBaltic CEO Martin Gauss.
Airbus results depressed from continuing delivery delays
Oct. 26, 2016: Airbus Group reported that its nine months financial results continue to be depressed by delivery delays in the A320neo and A350-900 programs.
The Group reported revenues of €43bn for the period and charges that lowered profits.
Net cash fell by nearly €5bn from the same period last year. Earnings at the Commercial unit fell 59% YOY.
The press release with detailed results may be found here.