Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
AirAsia update, Dec. 30: Key questions in the investigation
Dec. 30, 2014: With the apparent discovery of the main wreckage of AirAsia Flt 8501 in about 100 ft of water, recovery of the airplane and its black boxes should be a relatively straight-forward operation.
Our previous posts have outlined general areas of inquiry. With this post, we drill down into some of the flight and airplane questions that will be part of the inquiry. We talked with an Airbus A320 captain for a major US airline in forming these issues. This captain has been flying for US carriers for 30 years and is rated on Boeing 737s, the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and the A320.
Key points:
Top 10 Leeham News stories of 2014
Dec. 30, 2014: This was a highly active news year. Airbus launched the A330neo and A321neoLR. Boeing firmed up more than 200 orders for the 777X. Emirates canceled 70 A350 orders, a record cancellation when no customer collapse was involved. Boeing and its principal union, the IAM 751, faced off in a bitter contract vote. And on the truly dark side, Malaysian Airlines lost MH370 and MH17.
The Top 10 stories read on Leeham News included all of the above but MH17. Others made the Top 10 list. Here it is:
World’s dud airliners: a poll of your choices
Dec. 29, 2014: Now’s your chance to vote on what you think are the world’s dud airliners. Here are the parameters:
- Post World War II.
- A commercial airliner that entered service–not a prototype or a concept or a mock-up.
- “Dud” is defined as poor sales (typically fewer than 100, but it could be more) or something with a technological fault, or both.
- The final lists below are gleaned from our original post and choices, and some of the suggestions by readers. Not all suggestions have been incorporated and we’ve added a couple more.
- In our Honorable Mentions, we’ve included derivatives of successful airplanes that turned out to be sales duds.
You may vote for more than one airplane.
Airbus/Boeing duopoly single-aisle is safe well into 2030 decade
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Introduction
Dec. 28, 2014: Two challenges to the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the 150-220 seat single-aisle sector move forward in development in 2015, but neither is in a position to be a threat for the balance of this decade, nor even in the next.
Both challenges, the COMAC C919 from China, and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia, will for various reasons fall short of the Airbus A320/321 and Boeing 737-8/9 and plans to design the next generation new single-aisle airplane.
Summary
- The C919’s chief advantage was eliminated when Airbus and Boeing moved to reengine the A320 and 737 families.
- C919 retains pricing advantage but won’t overcome duopoly dominance.
- By the time the C919 enters service, Airbus and Boeing will have the second generation of LEAP and GTF engines available.
- The MC-21 takes into account better passenger comfort through a wider fuselage, but engines will be no better than those used on Airbus and Boeing.
- The MC-21 sales potential will be highly limited because Russia still hasn’t become a full trading partner due to political direction.
AirAsia A320 disappears en route in bad weather, but weather won’t be only area of investigative focus
Dec. 28, 2014: Weather will be a prime area of focus by investigators of the disappearance of AirAsia flight QZ8501. The flight, an Airbus A320-200 manufactured in 2008 and powered by CFM 56 engines, deviated from its intended flight path due to weather conditions, according to reports from officials in Indonesia.
It’s presumed the airplane’s disappearance is an accident.
With these reports, investigators will put weather conditions at the top of their list of areas to probe. They will attempt to determine whether there was a high altitude upset due to turbulence that caused the plane to lose control; whether the plane was intact when it presumably crashed into the sea or whether it came apart in flight, and if so whether this possibility was caused by stresses beyond design limits. Investigators will attempt to determine whether the plane was struck by lightning, causing a chain of events leading to a crash.
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.
Boeing 777-300ER and its replacements; A350-1000 and 777-9X.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
Dec. 21, 2014: Last week we did a deep analysis of A380 and its competition. It has been windy weeks for the aircraft since the Airbus Global Investor Forum and it was time to bring some needed facts on the table. These facts showed there is a clear difference between the hype being perpetuated in the media and the reality. As we cleared the situation around the A380, we also touched on the large twins that could fulfill at least parts of its missions.
There has been a lot of discussion around these aircraft as well as they form the battle of titans one level down from A380, the large, long-haul market today dominated by Boeing’s 777-300ER (the A380 does not have a real competitor–the 748i is clearly smaller, in fact so much smaller that it will be engulfed by the 777-9X).
Summary
- The 777-300ER had an exclusive run in its size until launch of the A350-1000;
- The A350-1000 doesn’t enter service until 2017;
- 777-9 EIS set for 2020, with hopes to advance by six months;
- We undertake a full economic analysis which gives good cues as to the future dominance of Boeing or Airbus in this highest margin segment of the market.
Odds and Ends: Qatar gets first A350-900; WTO Airbus-Boeing fight, continued; A380, continued; 767-2C first flight; our Holiday schedule
Dec. 21, 2014
- Here’s a piece we did for CNN.com on the Year Ahead in Aviation for 2015.
Qatar gets first A350-900: Unless U-Turn Al U-Turns again, Qatar Airways
Source: USA Today.
will take delivery of the world’s first Airbus A350-900 on Dec. 22. Reuters has a retrospective of the airplane’s development.
- Update: The A350 got delivered, and Airbus says it won’t cancel the A380. Reuters has this report.
WTO Airbus-Boeing fight, continued: It never ends. As we reported Friday, the European Union filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over Washington State tax breaks extended to Boeing for the 777X. Long-time readers of this column know how we feel about the WTO generally and the trade dispute between Europe (Airbus) and the US (Boeing) specifically. We consider it all a waste of time and money.
Now that the EU has officially complained about the 777X tax breaks, we fully expect the US Trade Representative to officially file a counter-action against allegations Airbus is receiving illegal subsidies for the A350. During the height of the previous complaints, USTR and Boeing complained about launch aid provided for the A350. The EU said this aid complied with the findings and compliance requirements of the previous dispute. The USTR tried to wrap the A350 aid into the then-ongoing complaint, which was rejected by the WTO for procedural reasons.
EU files subsidy complaint over 777X WA State tax breaks; we raised issue at the time
The European Union has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization over $8.7bn in tax breaks offered by Washington State to Boeing in exchange for locating the 777X assembly site and wing production plant in the state.
Reuters has this report.
We raised concerns at the time the breaks were offered that these were illegal. These were extensions of the state tax breaks provided in 2003 for the Boeing 787 program, which were ruled illegal in 2012 under a separate EU complaint to the WTO.
Our stories are here and here. Boeing recently issued a card talking about the tax breaks. This may be found here.
Reuters reported earlier that the 777X complaint might be filed.
Update, 1:00pm: Boeing provided this statement in response:
“The EU already failed to make these claims as part of the current proceedings.
“The EU’s effort to again raise this issue is a mere diversion from the fact that European governments have provided, and continue to provide, massive amounts of illegal launch aid to Airbus for every airplane development program. It is an effort to further delay EU compliance with the WTO’s 2011 ruling that launch aid is an illegal, market-distorting subsidy.
“The tax measures the EU challenges today are not market-distorting subsidies. They are available to all aerospace companies, including Airbus and its suppliers.”