Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The decline and fall of Bombardier
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Introduction
May 6, 2019, © Leeham News: Bombardier was once the leader in providing regional airliners to the industry.
Today, it’s all but exited the industry.
With the announcement that its Belfast manufacturing facility and a smaller one in Morocco are for sale, only the CRJ regional airliner remains.
Expectations are that that, too, will be gone before too long. Bombardier has been weighing its “strategic options” of the CRJ since last year, when it agreed to sell the Q400 turboprop to Canada’s Viking Air. This deal is to close mid-year.
Here’s a look back how Bombardier went from a leader to an also-ran.
Summary
- Bombardier pioneered the regional jetliner and dominated the turboprop sector.
- Embraer surpassed the former and ATR the latter.
- A bold move to jump into the lower end of the market dominated by Airbus and Boeing, coupled with bad management and over-extending the balance sheet, nearly bankrupted the company.
Bjorn’s Corner: Bombardier selling off unique CSeries technology
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 06, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Bombardier’s CEO, Alain Bellemare announced yesterday the company will streamline to a Train and Business jet company.
This means there is no longer place for a Commercial aircraft division nor its Aerostructures parts in Belfast and Morocco serving these aircraft.
Figure 1. The CSeries/A220 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) wing. Source: Bombardier.
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Ascend takes a close look at MAX values, future
April 30, 2019: Aviation consultancy Ascend took a close look at the Boeing 737 MAX in a 30 minute Youtube video.
The consultancy begins and ends the video talking about other airplanes, but the middle focuses on the MAX, lease rates, values and considerations about the grounding.
The video is below.
Bjorn’s Corner: Time to reassess the safety standards for our airliners
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 26, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In the wake of the 737 MAX crashes the standards to which Boeing and the FAA qualified and approved the 737 MAX MCAS function is questioned.
FAA has called the world’s aviation regulators to a meeting on the 23rd of May to discuss how the revised MCAS function will be approved. But it’s time to discuss more than how the updated MCAS shall pass.
Airbus, Boeing backlogs in US, EU and tariff exposure
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Now open to all readers.
Introduction
April 25, 2019, © Leeham News: With the European Union now listing aircraft among the US products that will be subject to tariffs, in retaliation for the United States plan to levy tariffs on airplanes and other goods, Airbus faces a greater exposure than Boeing in a trade war.
The US proposes tariffs on aircraft, fuselages, wings and other components produced by the four Airbus member states: France, Germany, Spain and the UK.
Summary
- Airbus has more aircraft in backlog to the US than Boeing does to the EU.
- Delta Air Lines is the biggest Airbus US customer, followed by lessor GECAS.
- Ireland, with its lessors and discount carrier Ryanair, is Boeing’s biggest customer in the EU.
- The UK carriers are a distant second to Ireland, but Brexit muddles the picture.
EU lists goods, including airplanes, subject to tariff in WTO trade war
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: The European Union late last week released its list of US goods, including non-military airplanes (read: Boeing 
airliners) that will be subject to tariffs if the US proceeds to levy tariffs on $11bn in goods.
The EU upped the ante, valuing its list at up to $20bn.
Latest engine problem means NMA EIS slides
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Introduction
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: If there remains any doubt that Boeing’s prospective New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) won’t be ready for entry into service (EIS) by 2025, it should be dispelled by now.
The grounding of the 737 MAX March 13, which is likely to continue well into the summer, will delay any launch of the program—should Boeing proceed.
The Board of Directors is unlikely to approve Authority to Offer (ATO) the NMA for sale as long as the cash flow for the MAX is outgoing and not in-coming.
Although this has its own impact on the NMA timing, it’s not the critical factor.
Last week, it was revealed that the CFM LEAP engine on the MAX (and the Airbus A321neo) has a problem called coking, which led to the contained engine failure of a Southwest Airlines MAX being ferried from Orlando (FL) to Victorville (CA) for the grounding of the Boeing airplane (see here and here). It’s the latest in a long line of engine maker problems with their current generation of powerplants.
This issue is unrelated to the MAX MCAS grounding. It also affects some engines on the A320neo family.
Summary
Pontifications: Collins Aerospace resolved to compete for aftermarket services
By Scott Hamilton
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Moves by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer to increase their shares of aftermarket services are viewed by their own suppliers with a mix of trepidation or resolve, depending on who they are.
For Collins Aerospace, it’s resolve.
It’s also about become more efficient with advanced manufacturing of its parts supplied to the aerospace industry. This reduces costs, lead times and takes advantage of Collins’ own engineers and designs for value-added services to its customers.
I spoke with two officials from Collins at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta April 9-11.
Training is a factor in the MAX crashes
By Scott Hamilton
April 15, 2019, © Leeham News: This column will no doubt light up the blog-o-sphere.
There’s been a major debate going on since the crash of Lion Air JT610, the Boeing 737-8 MAX that immediately became a huge controversy.
Boeing immediately blamed the pilots. So did some pilots of some US airlines, who said if the Lion Air crew had just flown the airplane, it wouldn’t have crashed. It was a training issue, some said.
Having got tremendous blow back over Lion Air, Boeing publicly held its tongue when Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crashed five months later.
Still, Boeing officials quietly still said there was nothing wrong with the airplane.
Some US and Canadian pilots maintained, publicly and privately, that a lack of training and pilot skills in the Third World was responsible.
They’re not entirely wrong.
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From the sidelines at MRO America, Day 2; the real reason for 737 production rate cutback
April 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Conversation from the sidelines of the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta on Day 2:
Ramping the 737 production back up
Boeing already has its plans for ramping production of the 737 back up from the current rate reduction of 42 airplane per month.
According to the information here, this is the schedule for ramping back up:
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