Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: Heard around the Paris Air Show
June 24, 2019, © Leeham News: Heard around the Paris Air Show last week:
Airbus
Reporters long used to the entertaining and sometimes acerbic tongue former super-salesman John Leahy wondered how Christian Scherer would compare.
By Scott Hamilton
Scherer’s own sharp tongue began to emerge at the Airbus Innovation Days pre-air show briefing last month and got sharper at the
executive round table the Friday before and on Day 1 of the international event.
On Day 2, Boeing and International Airlines Group (British Airways, et al) stunned the world journalists and Airbus with the LOI for 200 737 MAXes. On Thursday, Scherer expressed his displeasure.
The deal wasn’t unprecedented. In the 1990s, Boeing blindsided Leahy with an exclusive deal with American Airlines, followed by Delta and Continental airlines. “I was…pissed,” Leahy told LNA years later.
It seems Scherer is following in Leahy’s shoes in more ways than one.
The launch of the A321XLR was totally expected. The top question: does this kill the Boeing NMA? (LNA’s answer: Nope.)
IAG’s super MAX deal likely means super discounts, services
June 20, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing gets a Letter of Intent for 200 737 MAXes from International Airlines Group (British Airways, et al), announced Tuesday at the Paris Air Show.
Today, Airbus complained the deal came as a surprise—there hadn’t been a tender, Airbus had no chance to bid.
Christian Scherer, meet John Leahy.
Scherer is Leahy’s successor, and like Scherer, Leahy was blindsided in 1996 when American Airlines signed a 20-year exclusive procurement deal with Boeing.
Then, Delta and Continental airlines did the same.
Leahy complained bitterly that he didn’t know of American’s deal and had had no chance to bid.
Paris Air Show, Day 4: Closing orders, commitments
June 20, 2019, © Airfinance Journal: By day four of the Paris Air Show, most of the OEMs had already wrapped up their deal-making, but there was still time for Airbus to tempt another two airlines and another lessor towards the A321XLR and the A220-300 products.
Airbus and CFM are the manufacturers that will leave Paris the happiest, although ATR was keen to make its case, citing 75 “new orders” at the show. However, in line with the odd phrasing employed by most marketing departments this week, it was difficult to discern what those “orders” meant. ATR said they included “35 firm orders from NAC disclosed on June 18”, but its press release about that deal described only a “letter of intent for 35 firm ATR -600s, with options for a further 35 and purchase rights for another 35.”
Paris Air Show Day 3: Eyes focus on Boeing for more MAX commitments
June 18, 2019, © Leeham News: As the Paris Air Show prepares for Day 3 (June 19, Paris time), eyes will be on Boeing to see whether another commitment for the 737 MAX will be forthcoming.
Headlines the first day were split between Boeing’s early morning briefing in which executives apologized for the fatalities on the Lion Air and Ethiopian crashes, sympathies to their families and disruptions to the airlines for the groundings and the Airbus launch of the A321XLR.
Tuesday’s headlines belonged to Airbus until 4:30pm when International Airlines Group, the parent of British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus, Vueling and LEVEL, announced a commitment for 200 MAX 8s and MAX 10s.
If any such order was to come at the air show, observers expected it to be from Ryanair, whose CEO Michael O’Leary already had publicly endorsed the MAX and said he could order more.
Paris Air Show, Day 2: Orders and commitments
June 18, 2019, © Airfinance Journal: Boeing received a much-needed vote of confidence in its grounded 737 Max aircraft with a commitment for 200 of the type from IAG.
Nonetheless, the US manufacturer failed to register a firm order from the second day in a row.
Airbus, in contrast, continued to build momentum for its new A321XLR with orders and commitments from IAG and Cebu Pacific.
CFM also had a good day, registering big orders from lessors and AirAsia for its LEAP engine.
IAG (British Air) gives huge boost to MAX
June 18, 2019, © Leeham News: In a major vote of confidence for the embattled Boeing 737 MAX, International Airline Group (IAG), parent of British Airways, Vueling, Iberia, LEVEL and Aer Lingus, signed a letter of intent late today for 200 737-8/10s.
This is a huge shot in the arm Boeing, which until the Paris Air Show, hadn’t booked an order in two months following the March 13 grounding of the MAX.
Airbus CEO says the airline industry must cut carbon emission with 50% by 2050
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 18, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Airbus new management team has set the company ambitious targets for the future. These not only describe how to develop and produce new, more competitive airliners but also defines Airbus’ contribution to a sustainable aviation industry, contributing its part in the fight against climate change.
The new Airbus CEO, Guillaume Faury said at the opening of the Paris Air show “We must find a way to decarbonized aviation. This is for our generation to do. It’s expected of us by the flying public and by society”.
Airbus launches long-expected A321XLR with ALC order; lessor also orders A220-300
By Judson Rollins
June 17, 2019, © Leeham News, Paris: Airbus launched its much-awaited A321XLR today with an initial order of 27 airplanes from lessor Air Lease Corp. ALC also ordered another 23 A321neos, which can optionally be taken as A321LRs. This brings ALC’s total Airbus order count to 387, making it Airbus’s third largest lessor.
Airbus also announced that ALC has ordered 50 A220-300s to be delivered between 2021 and 2026. ALC is the largest lessor to date to order the former C-Series aircraft. ALC executive chairman Steven Udvar-Hazy said, “We believe this aircraft will be a wonderful replacement for aging A319s, 737s, Fokker 100, BAe-146s, and other smaller jet aircraft.”
The order is structured as a letter of intent. ALC chief executive John Plueger said the LoI covers “all commercial business points” but that it will be converted to a firm order once certain terms are firmed on the A220 portion of the order.
Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer declined to discuss catalog pricing for the A321XLR.
Paris Air Show Orders, Day 1
June 17, 2019, (c) Leeham News: Here are the orders and commitments for Day 1 of the Paris Air Show, courtesy of Airfinance Journal.
How useful is an Airbus A321XLR? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week we looked at the route structures an Airbus A321XLR could support compared with the original A321LR. We could see the A321XLR is a more flexible long-range aircraft than the A321LR.
It covers trans-Atlantic routes from Mid-US to mid-Europe and it can for several route types replace larger aircraft, thus allowing increased frequency on existing routes or the start of new thinner routes than possible with widebody aircraft.
This all assumes the economics of the A321XLR and a widebody like the Airbus A330neo or Boeing 787 are comparable. We use our Aircraft Performance Model to find out.
Summary:
- Our comparison over a typical long-range route shows the operating costs of an A321XLR and an A330-800 or 787-8 are close.
- This creates flexibility for the airlines. The A321XLR can open new, thinner routes between secondary city pairs or increase the frequency on established long-haul routes.
- It can also serve routes during off-peak hours or during the slower winter period. All that’s needed whether the route is within the range capability of the A321XLR.