The Zhuhai airshow has not brought the expected slew of announcements from Western aircraft manufacturers. Boeing announced an order for 80 737 MAX Monday but this was characteristically from a leasing company across the Chinese see, SBMC Capital of Tokio.
Airbus on the other hand has not been able to move the much talked about A330 regional to order yet, despite announcing it in China last year and enticing with an announcement for a Chinese completion center for the aircraft before the show. Flightglobal reports that the A330 regional needs further explaining, Chinese carriers seems hesitant to buy what Boeing pitches as “obsolete technology” in a weight variant that only could fly local missions.
Airbus China president Eric Chen explains that the 200t variant is not constrained to Chinese mainland and can fly any missions that its range would allow. He also points out that the weight variant is just that, a de-papered weight version that can be upped to whatever take off weight the customer wishes at a later date by paperwork changes (and perhaps some additional galley equipment). As for technology level, an aircraft shall be valued for its contribution to a carriers business says Chen, not by which years it says on its airworthiness certificate.
The smaller A320 did not disappoint reports Aviation Week, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier could announce a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) for 100 A320 from state affiliated China Aircraft Leasing whereof 74 would be A320neo. The order, once confirmed, can help Chinese carriers with the aircraft demand for the 2016-2020 economic planning period. Chinese carriers have been slow to place the necessary early OEM orders for the period (needed due to the large backlogs), the lessor sees it can back-fill that demand when the carriers comes around to needing the aircraft.
Airbus also has explaining to do in other corners of the world, Emirates intend to start second round talks around A350 in the next months according to Reuters. The first round of 70 aircraft was cancelled after Emirates did not understand a specification change that Airbus undertook without consulting Emirates. This time Emirates will see the aircraft flying with neighbor Qatar Airways before agreeing to any specifications according to Emirates CEO Tim Clark.
Bjorn’s Corner: China’s civil aviation, from nothing to world’s largest in 2030
Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
14 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: In my ISTAT Asia reports, I wrote about how China will overtake USA as largest civil aviation market in 2030. Airbus China Group chairman, Laurence Barron, and I had a chat after his ISTAT presentation where he described China’s evolution as a civil aviation market and how Airbus gradually worked itself from a late and hesitant start to today’s split of the market with Boeing.
Barron provided his slides, some of which we will use to review how China grew from virtually no civil aviation after the Chinese revolution in 1949 to the world’s largest market by 2030. We will also look at what aircraft have made up this growth and finally describe how Airbus progressed from a latecomer in 1985 to sharing the market with Boeing today.
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19 Comments
Posted on May 14, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Bjorn's Corner, Boeing, China, Douglas Aircraft Co, Leeham News and Comment, McDonnell Douglas
707, A310, Airbus, Boeing, EADS
ISTAT Asia day two: home for the elderly
Introduction
May 12, 2015, c. Leeham Co: As you would have guessed we are talking Asian civil airliners, where planning in the region for the fast growing older generations is inadequate. This was the subject of several sessions during day two of the ISTAT Asia (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference in Singapore.
The problem is new, as up to now a newly established airline fleet in Asia has not had any numbers of older aircraft. But the expansion over the last 20 years is now producing the first transition waves of aircraft and the planning around the problems this generates is inadequate.
The result will be surprising write-downs of airline assets as aircraft being replaced cannot be transitioned out at booked residual values. The scale of the problem was highlighted by a survey of the 500 gathered ISTAT industry experts. The question posed to them was “There are 4700 aircraft coming up for replacement until 2033, has Asian airlines planned adequately for this?”:
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5 Comments
Posted on May 12, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, China, ISTAT, Leasing, Rolls-Royce
777, A330, Airbus, Boeing
ISTAT Asia: Asian airline market update
Introduction
May 11, 2015, c. Leeham Co: We are participating this week in the ISTAT Asia conference in Singapore where IATA and different panels gave an interesting update on the Asian airline market. This is the fifth year that an ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) conference is held in Asia and participation has virtually doubled from last year to 500 delegates.
IATA’s Conrad Clifford opened the event with the following overview about the Asian market for airline passenger travel:
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8 Comments
Posted on May 11, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, China, Comac, Embraer, ISTAT, Leasing, Mitsubishi
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Mitsubishi
Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
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3 Comments
Posted on March 29, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embrarer, GE Aviation, International Aero Engines, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Sukhoi, United Aircraft, YAK
737, 737 MAX, 737-7, 737NG, A319neo, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, E-195 E2, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GTF, LEAP-1A, Leap-1B, Pratt & Whitney
Airbus Group 2014, analysis after press conference
By Bjorn Fehrm
Munich 27 Feb. 2015: The team from Airbus Group that met the press in Munich today consisted of Tom Enders, Airbus Group Chief Executive Officer, Harald Wilhelm, Airbus Group Chief Financial Officer and Marwan Lahoud, Head of Airbus Group strategy and M&A.
It was a team in good spirits that met around 150 on-site journalists from mainly Europe, with both Tom Enders and Harald Wilhelm clearly at ease with the groups improving results and giving Marwan Lahoud compliments for his restructuring work in the groups remaining problem areas.
Before we go into the areas with work in progress, lets focus on why these gentlemen felt at ease with presenting the state of Airbus Group after its first year operating under the new name. Read more
32 Comments
Posted on February 27, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, China, EADS
A400M, Airbus, Airbus helicopters, Ariane, EADS
Bombardier’s crisis of confidence perhaps the biggest challenge for CSeries
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 18, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: Alain Bellemare, Bombardier’s new president and chief executive officer, has his work cut out for him.
Figure 1. The CSeries was supposed to enter service in late 2013, two full years ahead of the Airbus A320neo. This market advantage has been lost with repeated delays. BBD is sticking to its public statement that EIS is now the second half of this year (most put EIS in the fourth quarter), but there is growing belief EIS will slip to the first or even the second quarter of next year–after the A320neo EIS. Source: Bombardier, Airbus, Leeham Co. Click on image to enlarge into a crisp view.
We outlined the corporate and market perception challenges ahead of him in our Feb. 13 post. Investor and media reception to the CEO leadership change was mixed. Although Bellemare’s appointment was seen as a positive, stock traded down and Bombardier took a pounding in the press (see some reaction at the bottom of this post).
He also has challenges with a changing market place, driven by two years worth of delays in the CSeries program and exacerbated by a changing global political environment.
Summary
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Posted on February 18, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, China, CSeries, Embraer, Premium
737-7, 737-8, A319neo, A320NEO, Airbus, Alain Bellemare, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, E-190 E2, E-195 E2, E-Jet E1, E-Jet E2, Embraer, Pierre Beaudoin
Turboprops’ future is OK but not great as ATR corners market
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Introduction
Jan. 5, 2015: Conventional wisdom suggests that turboprops are making a bit of a comeback because these remain far more efficient for routes up to 400 miles than jets, particularly at high fuel prices.
Even though oil prices have plunged to a seven year low, few expect that long-term prices will remain at today’s levels. While fuel between $50-$60bbl breathes new life into aging regional jets, there remains efforts in several corners to develop a new generation of turboprops.
ATR wants to launch a new, 90-100 seat turboprop.
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Posted on January 5, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Bombardier, China, Embraer, Premium
Airbus, ATR, ATR42, ATR72, AVIC, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, JADC, Japan Aircraft Development Corp., MA60, Q400, Regio Aviasi Industri
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.
20 Comments
Posted on December 26, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
767-2C, A320NEO, A350-1000, A350-900, A380neo, air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GTF, KC-46A, LEAP, MC-21, Mitsubishi, MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Trent XWB
World’s dud airliners
While we’re in the slow-news Holidays, we thought we’d have some irreverent fun. There have been many attempts at building airliners. There are the obvious successes but there have been many, many failures. Starting with the end of World War II, we’ve collected the following for our nominees for duds–sales or technological failures. We invite readers to make their own nominations. If you have photos, add them to your Comments.
This list is in no particular order. Next week we’ll construct a poll to see how the airplanes rank. Read more
74 Comments
Posted on December 23, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, China, Comac, Douglas Aircraft Co
707, 727, 880, 990, Airbus, Airlift, American Airlines, ARJ21, AVIC, BEA, BOAC, Boeing, Braniff Airlines, Bristol, Britannia, British European Airlines, Budd, Canadair, CL-44, Comac, Comet, Constoga, Convair, Dassualt, DC-4 M2, DC-8, de Havilland, Electra, Flying Tiger, Fokker-VFW, Fokker-VFW 614, Howard Hughes, Lockheed, Lockheed Electra, Loftleider, Martin, Martin 202, Martin 303, Martin 404, Mercure, Seaboard World, Stratocruiser, Trident, TWA, United Airlines
Zhuhai airshow: Airbus gains A320 MOU while regional A330 needs explaining
The Zhuhai airshow has not brought the expected slew of announcements from Western aircraft manufacturers. Boeing announced an order for 80 737 MAX Monday but this was characteristically from a leasing company across the Chinese see, SBMC Capital of Tokio.
Airbus on the other hand has not been able to move the much talked about A330 regional to order yet, despite announcing it in China last year and enticing with an announcement for a Chinese completion center for the aircraft before the show. Flightglobal reports that the A330 regional needs further explaining, Chinese carriers seems hesitant to buy what Boeing pitches as “obsolete technology” in a weight variant that only could fly local missions.
Airbus China president Eric Chen explains that the 200t variant is not constrained to Chinese mainland and can fly any missions that its range would allow. He also points out that the weight variant is just that, a de-papered weight version that can be upped to whatever take off weight the customer wishes at a later date by paperwork changes (and perhaps some additional galley equipment). As for technology level, an aircraft shall be valued for its contribution to a carriers business says Chen, not by which years it says on its airworthiness certificate.
The smaller A320 did not disappoint reports Aviation Week, Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier could announce a Memorandum Of Understanding (MOU) for 100 A320 from state affiliated China Aircraft Leasing whereof 74 would be A320neo. The order, once confirmed, can help Chinese carriers with the aircraft demand for the 2016-2020 economic planning period. Chinese carriers have been slow to place the necessary early OEM orders for the period (needed due to the large backlogs), the lessor sees it can back-fill that demand when the carriers comes around to needing the aircraft.
Airbus also has explaining to do in other corners of the world, Emirates intend to start second round talks around A350 in the next months according to Reuters. The first round of 70 aircraft was cancelled after Emirates did not understand a specification change that Airbus undertook without consulting Emirates. This time Emirates will see the aircraft flying with neighbor Qatar Airways before agreeing to any specifications according to Emirates CEO Tim Clark.
17 Comments
Posted on November 13, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, China, Uncategorized
A320, A320NEO, A330, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Emirates Airlines
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