Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: What did we learn in 2015?
By Bjorn Fehrm
08 January 2016, ©. Leeham Co: It’s the first Corner for the year and a look at 2015 as a year of technology advancements is due. 2015 will be remembered as the year when three clean sheet airliners passed important milestones. This will not happen for many years to come, so it will be worth to look at what they brought to world of aviation.
I’m thinking of Bombardier’s (BBD) CSeries getting certification for its first variant; the Mitsubishi MRJ doing its first flight’ and COMAC’s C919 being rolled out. Going forward, we will only have derivatives progressing through such milestones for years except for the roll-out of United Aircraft’s MS-21 single aisle airliner in 2016.
The Airbus A320neo was certified in 2015 and Boeing’s 737 MAX rolled out, but these are derivatives of in-service aircraft.
Embraer’s E-Jet E2 will roll out in February but this is a further development of today’s E-jet and Airbus A350-1000 is a variant of the in-service A350-900.
It will be a long time before we see so much new in a year, so it can be instructive to look at to what extent did these new aircraft bring the state of the art of airliners forward.
CS100 certified; We review CS100’s birth with VP CSeries, Rob Dewar
Introduction
By Bjorn Fehrm
21 December 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Bombardier (BBD) received certification of the smaller CSeries, the CS100, by Transport Canada Thursday. Rob Dewar, vice president of CSeries, reflected on the journey to certification in an exclusive interview with LNC.
CSeries VP Rob Dewar with CS100 Certificate. Source: Bombardier.
The interview was done against a backdrop of more than two years of delays, which in turn drained the coffers of BBD. To save the project and let it prove its game-changing character, management sold 49.50% of the CSeries program to the Province of Quebec for $1bn and 30% of its train division to Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, for an additional $1.5bn.
Dewar has managed the project from the program launch in 2008. The transcript of the interview follows.
State investment in Bombardier further mockery of WTO
Nov. 24, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. With the $1bn investment by the Province of Quebec in the Bombardier 
CSeries program, another example of government funding emerges in commercial aviation development.
Setting aside whether the investment might be challenged before the World Trade Organization—and whether this makes good business sense for Quebec—the move makes a mockery of the entire concept of avoiding government support.
The turbo-prop conundrum: small market, high costs
ATR Turbo-prop. Photo via Google images.
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Introduction
ATR and Bombardier are incumbents. China has a home-market offering.
Indonesia and India want to create a product.
It’s the 60-seat and up turbo-prop market.
It’s too many companies chasing too-small a market.
Summary
- The 20-year demand for 60-99 seat turbo-props is small.
- Developing a new, clean-sheet design is costly.
- There is a solid demand for an inexpensive 19-34 seat turbo-prop—but nobody is interested.
Bombardier-Quebec investment another step in securing future
Nov. 19, 2015: The $1.5bn investment by Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec to take a 30% stake in Bombardier Transportation, the rail business, is another step in the financial restructuring of the distressed company.
This brings to $2.5bn Bombardier has funded in recent months. The Province of Quebec previously agreed to invest $1bn in the CSeries program.
CDPQ is a long-term instutional investor that manages funds primarily for public and private pension funds.
Embraer sees broadening market in North America
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Introduction
Nov. 17, 2015, © Leeham Co. The chief commercial officer of Embraer sees US mainline carriers adding
John Slattery, Chief Commercial Officer, Embraer. Photo via Google images.
aircraft in the 100-plus seat sector that will open new opportunities for the largest E-Jets hitherto a limited interest in this region.
First among high profile possibilities: United Airlines, which was identified as a major prospect for Bombardier and its CS100. According to multiple news reports, UA is holding out an order for the CS100 as an inducement for some pilot contract revisions. According to Market Intelligence, the potential order is for an equal number of orders and options, well below 50 orders but one which would be a crucial win for struggling Bombardier.
But Embraer isn’t going to let this order go without a stiff fight. Through United Express partners, EMB has a large installed base of E-175s operating for United. This is viewed as a major advantage by EMB’s CCO, John Slattery.
Summary
- United, JetBlue, Air Canada targets for CSeries sales.
- Embraer has large, installed fleet of E-Jets at these airlines.
- Broadened market potential seen with North American carriers for 100-plus seat airplanes.
Bjorn’s Corner: MRJ90 first flight
By Bjorn Fehrm
13 November 2015, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi flew their MRJ for the first time this week. I could have added “finally” because it is two years late compared to the original time plan. But who cares when the aircraft is finally ready to fly and everything goes well? (Well, the customers do, actually.)
It was a big moment for Japan, a nation with a sizable aeronautical industry. Japan has been a major partner to Boeing in their larger airplane programs over the 757/767 to the 777 and 787. For the Dreamliner, they even designed and made the hottest item, the high-tech Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic (CFRP) wing.
Despite having such a capable aeronautical industry, Japan has not built an own civil aircraft since it closed the production line for the YS-11 twin engined turboprop in 1973. Since then it has acted as sub-supplier and has worked on certain military programs like the Mitsubishi F-2 fighter, based on the Lockheed Martin F16.
The Mitsubishi corporation flew the MRJ90 for the first time Wednesday from the Nagoya Airport in Japan (screenshot from video from Mitsubishi). Most of the flight testing will be done in Moses Lake (WA), USA, where four test airplanes will be based.
Moses Lake is blessed with open skies, little air traffic, a long runway and good weather. It has a long history of flight testing, serving as a test-base for Japan Air Lines 747 pilot training for decades. Boeing also uses Moses Lake for flight testing.
We analyzed the MRJ90 and its main competitor the Embraer E175 in a subscriber article the 25th of January. We will revisit the main characteristics and then comment on what could be seen from the first flight. Read more
Embraer’s fundamental advantages
Subscription Required
Introduction
With the first Embraer E-Jet E2 under assembly, we take a look at the E1 and E2 programs in the run-up to 
roll-out of the E-190 E2 next year and projected Entry Into Service (EIS) in 2018.
Summary
- Broad customer base gives Embraer a major advantage against new competitors.
- More than 2,300 ERJs, E-Jets in service.
- More than 1,100 E-Jets in service.
- Broad product support a key advantage.
Pontifications: A380neo? Try A380TXWB. Dubai Air Show and other Odds and Ends
Click on image to enlarge. Airbus photo.
Nov. 9, 2015, (c) Leeham Co. Airbus last week launched its A380 flying test bed with the A350-1000’s Rolls-Royce Trent XWB 97,000 lb engine placed in the number two position.
The first thing that came to mind when I saw the photo was that if Airbus put three more engines on it, you’d have the A380neo. Or maybe call it the A380TXWB. Done and dusted, as they say in England.