Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
- Better transparency needed on Boeing’s 1Q earnings call April 22, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 4. Propulsive efficiency April 19, 2024
Farnborough: First day order recap
By Alex Derber
July 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Day One of Farnborough 2018 belonged firmly to Boeing in terms of firm orders,
although the US manufacturer saved up many of its largest announcements from deals done earlier in the year. Airbus, meanwhile, almost achieved parity if one includes softer commitments from airlines and lessors, although there were some speculative deals, notably a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 17 A350s from Starlux, a Taiwanese start-up not yet in business.
Other noteworthy deals included lessor Jackson Square Aviation’s first new aircraft order and United decision to buy E175s rather than the newer E2 variant.
Farnborough: Boeing reconsiders metal fuselage for NMA as cost remains major challenge
July 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Farnborough: Boeing has returned to considering a metal fuselage for the New Midmarket Aircraft as an alternative to the ovoid-based composite design that has been the focus for the past two-three years, multiple sources tell LNC.
Boeing hasn’t been able to narrow the cost of the composite design to a point where selling the aircraft in the $70m-range is feasible, sources say.
JetBlue orders 60 A220-300s in surprise timing
July 10, 2018, (c) Leeham News: JetBlue announced an order today for 60 Airbus A220-300s, nee Bombardier CS300s. The airline took options on 60 more.
The timing is a surprise–JetBlue previously said it would not be ready to order until toward the end of the year.
The order is a blow to Embraer, which has 60 E-190s in service with JBLU. The airline had orders for 20 more, but delivery had been deferred several times. Industry insiders told LNC the order could be canceled with little or no penalty.
The order is a blow to Embraer for the flip and for the loss of a potential E2 order. The E195-E2 seats slightly fewer passengers and has less range than the A220-300.
JetBlue has a large fleet of Airbus A320ceos, a few A321ceos and a large order book for neos.
Laser focus for MRJ program
Subscription Required
By Dan Catchpole
July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: It’s been two years since a small army of Japanese aerospace workers landed in Moses Lake, a sleepy former Air Force base town in rural Central Washington. The Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) will be in Moses Lake for another four or five years as it nudges its new regional jets—the MRJ70 and MRJ90—into service.
Japan’s All Nippon Airways is the launch customer and first operator for the Mitsubishi MRJ90. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first Mitsubishi Regional Jet, the MRJ90, originally was supposed to enter into service in 2013, but myriad develop delays have dogged the sleek jet, which now is slated to deliver to launch customer All Nippon Airways in mid-2020.
Pontifications: C Series to Airbus, 10 years since program launch, lower fuel burn
By Scott Hamilton
July 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus officially became the majority partner yesterday of the C Series Aircraft Limited Partnership, or CSALP.
Airbus has a 50.01% stake in the LP, with Bombardier and the province of Quebec holding minority stakes.
Things will move quickly, now that Airbus has control.
Airbus is expected to announce a rebranding of the C Series at its July 10 pre-Farnborough Air Show media briefing. An aircraft is in the process of being repainted in Airbus colors for display at the event.
Bloomberg reported in April new names were to be assigned to the CS100 and CS300, probably the A210 and A230 respectively.
Construction of the new C Series Final Assembly Line in Mobile (AL) will begin sooner than expected. This was announced at the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile, organized by Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal.
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
US start-up has a lot of Moxy
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.
Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.
The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.
Summary
- Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
- Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
- Initial funding of $100m raised.
- Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
- Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.
Airbus-C Series closing a “positive catalyst,” say analysts
June 13, 2018, © Leeham News: The news Friday that Airbus and Bombardier concluded the deal in which Airbus takes a 50.01% ownership in the C Series program was greeted favorably by two analyst reports LNC saw.
Credit Suisse and JP Morgan each called the approval by all regulatory authorities and closing the deal—well ahead of schedule—as positive catalysts for the C Series.
A synopsis of the two research notes are below.
The partnership becomes effective July 1, just two weeks ahead of the Farnborough Air Show.
Countdown to Airbus-CSeries deal: boost needed to backlog
Subscription Required
Introduction
May 28, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier and Airbus may clear regulatory approvals next month, allowing for consummation of the latter’s acquisition of 50.01% of the CSeries program.
If all works, this will be well in advance of the Farnborough Air Show that begins July 15. Industry eyes will be on the FAS to see what orders might be announced by
Airbus for the CSeries, which reportedly may be renamed the A210 and A230 for the CS100 and CS300 respectively.
As May fades to June, Bombardier has beefed up its skyline quality, but there are some orders that are in doubt, including a big one for 40 airplanes.
Summary
- No sales since Dubai Air Show.
- Airbus-CSeries deal expected to close next month.
- Three questionable orders affect nearly 20% of backlog.
- Farnborough Air Show will be keen to watch for news.
After Boeing yields, what’s next for Bombardier CSeries?
Analysis
March 26, 2018, © Leeham News: With the decision by Boeing to let last week’s deadline go by without filing an appeal in the Bombardier trade complaint, eyes turn to “what’s next” for the CSeries.
Source: Bombardier.
LNC broke the news on Twitter that Boeing would not appeal the 4-0 decision finding it suffered no harm in the 2016 BBD-Delta Air Lines order for 75 CS100s and options for 50 more, with conversion rights to the CS300.