Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
Widebody sales prospects this year
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Introduction
June 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Sales of widebody jets have slowed going into the Paris Air Show in under two weeks. Airbus sold six A330-200s, four A330-200Fs and
Boeing hopes to make a sale to Emirates Airlines later this year for the 787-10, giving a boost to this program and acing out Airbus in the process.
25 A330-900s, or 35 widebodies. No A350s. No A380s. Boeing sold three 747-8s, one 767, 25 777 Classics and (net) 34 787s, or 63 widebodies.
But we expect sales to pick up for the second half of the year, propelled by what appears to be enticing hints by Airbus that it may have finally achieved sales from China for its long-stalled A330ceo Regional airliner.
But the big prize, the Emirates Airlines order for 50-100 Airbus A350s or Boeing 787-10s (the number varies), is likely a late-in-the-year deal. There are a couple of others of decent size being competed as well.
And then there is the prospect of the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
Summary
- Airbus looks to Air Show to boost orders
- Boeing continues to hope 777F will save the day on the Classic
- Deals by year-end hoped for.
- Next big opportunity: the Dubai Air Show.
Pontifications: re-engining airliners and the A380
By Scott Hamilton
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins in two weeks. One thing that won’t happen is the launch of the Airbus A380neo.
We still think it will happen, though at a later date.
Re-engining the A380 is highly controversial. The A380 is the plane critics love to hate. You can argue whether it should have been built in the first place. You can argue whether it was 10 years too soon. You can argue whether Airbus misjudged the size of the market. You can even argue its passenger appeal. I haven’t flown on the A380 yet, so I can’t speak from personal experience on the latter. I’ve previously discussed the other points.
You can argue whether the airplane should be re-engined. Leeham News concluded in January 2014 Airbus really had no choice but to re-engine the A380 if it wants to continue offering the model. If done inexpensively (a relative term, to be sure), it makes sense given the arrival around 2020 of the Boeing 777-9. It’s when design creep happens that trouble arises. Just ask Boeing on the 747-8.
Emirates Airlines says it will buy up to 200 A380neos if Airbus proceeds. Qatar Airways expresses interest. Lufthansa Airlines said a neo is needed to keep the A380 viable in the future, though it hasn’t taken the next step of saying it will buy more.
Re-engining is hardly new. Let’s take a look. Read more
Paris Air Show: Qatar and others
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Introduction
June 1, 2015, c. Leeham Co. It could be called the Qatar Airways Air Show.
Qatar Airways plans to have five airliners on display at the Paris Air Show in two weeks: the Airbus A319, A320, A350, A380 and the Boeing 787. The carrier hasn’t 
announced whether it will provide an aerial display as it has at previous air shows, but Qatar may well have more airliners there than Airbus or Boeing.
As for manufacturers other than Airbus and Boeing, we don’t expect anything of consequence from these.
Summary
- Irkut, COMAC, Mitsubishi, Sukoi and ATR are other major aircraft producers that will be at the Paris Air Show.
- Engine makers CFM International, GE Aviation, Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and Engine Alliance will also be there.
- An update on Airbus expectations.
Bjorn’s Corner: Airbus Innovation days, activities and program updates.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: I am in Toulouse today attending Airbus Innovation days for Leeham News. It has been a good day’s briefings and I have presented what was perhaps the biggest change since we last met Airbus in the article “Airbus A350-1000 getting real”.
Apart from this program, there were more standard updates on Airbus other activities and programs. Here follows a rundown on these updates in a more paraphrased form.
Paris Air Show: Boeing
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Second in a Series of Previews for the Paris Air Show.
Introduction
May 10, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Don’t expect Boeing to come away from the Paris Air Show next month with a ton of orders. It never does; this is Airbus’ home turf.
Although Boeing has said over and over and over again that it doesn’t hold back orders to announce at air shows, the fact is that it does, both for its own public 
relations value and at the behest of customers. Is this as aggressive as Airbus? No, but we know from talking with customers and with
Boeing’s own personnel that Boeing is just as aware of the air show PR value as is Airbus.
That being said, what can we expect from Boeing at the air show? A little bit here. A little bit there. But not a whole lot. The order cycle has flattened (though it’s certainly not collapsed) and the wide-body campaigns that are underway probably won’t be ready for Paris.
Summary
- Look for “Unidentifieds” to be revealed to bolster air show numbers, though this will be strictly a PR exercise;
- Watch the 737 MAX 200–so far only Ryanair has ordered this variant;
- Closely watch whether new orders for the 777 Classic are forthcoming; last week’s Swiss order, for three, were already accounted for in the Unidentifieds;
- 777 Classic production gap is much larger than generally recognized;
- Don’t expect much in the way of 777X orders; there are active campaigns but these probably won’t be ready by Paris;
- It’s doubtful if there will be many 787 orders; the backlog stream is just too far out to prompt airlines to commit right now; and
- Nothing on the Middle of the Market airplane or (probably) the 747-8I.
Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus
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Introduction
May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our 
Market Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.
Summary
- First, an overarching look at what to expect;
- What to expect for Airbus at the show;
- The future of the A380neo;
- Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
- Outlook for the A321LR.
Looking ahead in 2015 in commercial aviation
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Click to enlarge for crisp view.