Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
Pontifications: Transformation is key to increasing production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The likely prospect that Airbus and Boeing will increase single-aisle production rates next decade is outlined in our paywall article today.
The whys and capabilities to do so are outlined in the paywall post. The how is what I’ve been writing about since the first of the year, when LNC looked ahead to its 2018 forecast.
The “how” is the transformation in production that is underway in aerospace.
Airbus, Boeing likely to push for 70/mo single aisle airplane production rates: analysis
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Production rates for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families are already at record levels, and heading higher.
Airbus plans to hit a production rate of 60/mo next year. Boeing is taking the 737 to rate 57. Boeing is
studying rates of 63/mo and even 70/mo. Airbus is sure to match.
How will the airframers achieve these rates?
Information gleaned from the sidelines of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference last week give a reasonably good picture of how Boeing will get there.
Visibility was less on Airbus, which is unsurprising given the conference was in Boeing’s back yard in Lynnwood (WA).
Leahy remains steadfast in A380 future
Feb. 16, 2018, © Leeham Co.: It’s been a long struggle and there isn’t a re-engining any time soon, but John Leahy still firmly believes in the market viability of the Airbus A380.
John Leahy stand behind the Airbus A380. Photo via Google images.
Leahy, who retired last month as COO-Customers, continues to support the transition to Eric Schulz, EVP, Chief of Sales, Marketing & Contracts. One of Leahy’s last deals was to firm up an A380 MOU for 20 orders and 16 options for Emirates Airline.
In his final retirement interview with LNC, Leahy didn’t waver from the messaging Airbus used since the launch of the A380 program in 2000: passenger traffic doubles every 15 years, no new airports and few new runways are being added in Europe, the US or Asia outside of China and the need for the A380 remains.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft drag reduction, Part 17
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 16, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we discussed supersonic flow and drag. Now it’s time to talk about the drag created by transonic flow on an aircraft.
Figure 1. Pressure distribution of 787 during cruise. Source: Boeing and Leeham Co.
Airbus group 2017: The A320 is the group moneymaker despite problems
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 15, 2018, ©. Leeham Co in Toulouse: Airbus Group presents better results for 2017 than predicted, despite challenges in several programs. Profit was up 34% on flat revenues. The underlying driver for the strong performance is the A320 program, and with record 2017 orders and backlog, no end is in sight.
Airbus CEO, Tom Enders, says the A320 is “sold out’ until 2023 and the company is working on how to produce 70 per month, to keep up with demand.
Airbus, plagued by “decapitation,” faces tough choices on NMA: consultant
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 15, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus’ plans to respond to Boeing’s prospective New Midrange Aircraft, aka 797, is a mystery to one of the industry’s leading aviation consultants.
Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group notes that Airbus’ research and development investment overtly disappears after 2018, with the introduction into service of the A350-1000 and the A319neo.
Aboulafia spoke at Day 2 of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in Lynnwood (WA).
He’s long compared R&D spending between Airbus and Boeing, often praising the former for its level of investment and criticizing the latter for lagging.
Now, Airbus’ level of spending is a question mark while Boeing’s is a comfortable level compared with revenue, Aboulafia says.
No harm to Boeing, no threat to US aerospace, ITC finds
Feb,. 14, 2018: The US International Trade Commission’s 4-0 vote against Boeing in the Bombardier trade
complaint last month found no harm was suffered by Boeing and no threat to the US aerospace industry occurred with the sale of 75 CS100s to Delta Air Lines.
Reuters first reported the issuance of the Determination. The public version wasn’t supposed to be issued until March 2. The parties received it Feb. 9.
Here is the 194-page decision: ITC Public Opinion Aircraft.
LNC hasn’t yet digested the document.
Norwegian flies in thin air
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Norwegian Air Shuttle (Norwegian) is in an aggressive expansion phase. The airline is setting up as many low-cost routes as possible across the Atlantic, to gain critical market share before the competition gets organized.
Such expansion costs money, a rare commodity at Norwegian. The company presents its 2017 results Thursday. We analyze what to expect.
Read more
NMA demand skeptics aren’t thinking outside the box, Boeing exec says
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Skeptics who question Boeing’s market demand forecast of 4,000 airplanes for the New Midrange Aircraft aren’t thinking “outside the box,” says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing.
Tinseth heads up the team that prepares Boeing’s annual Current Market Outlook for the next 20 years.
Boeing’s CMO forecasts a need for about 5,900 small twin-aisle aircraft (fewer than 300 seats but larger than single-aisle airplanes of more than 200 seats). About 4,000 of these are for the NMA.
Others, including Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and some key suppliers see the market as between 2,000 and 2,500. Leeham Co.’s own estimate is 2,300.