Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
- Engine makers tout “Plan A” but have “Plan B” backups in R&D June 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
Pontifications: No rate increase on Boeing 787 predicted
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing will decide this year whether to boost 787 production to 14/mo from 12/mo by the end of the decade.
I don’t see how this can happen. Neither do several aerospace analysts.
Book:bill sales were just 0.36 in 2014, 0.53 in 2015 and 0.42 in 2016. The last three years saw a book:bill rate average of just 0.43, or an average of 57 airplanes per year.
Boeing is burning off the backlog, not adding to it. At this rate, Boeing won’t be able to sustain rate 12 beyond 2020, let alone boost the rate in 2019.
Not unless there is a plethora of sales this year. This doesn’t seem likely.
Two “Boeing countries” on Trump’s no-fly list
Jan. 30, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Two of the seven countries on President Trump’s own “no-fly” list of travelers coming to the United States committed to 108 Boeing airplanes.
One of the governments is an ally of the United States: Iraq.
Iraq remains on the US government list of a terrorist state. Iran, Sudan, Somalia, Libya Yemen and Syria were targeted in Trump’s Executive Order Friday as presenting terrorist threats to the US.
Airline flight crews who come from these countries, even if flying for airlines not of these nations, are affected, said the International Air Transport Assn. (IATA), an industry trade group.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 27, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In the last Corner, we began looking at the in-service operation of a Turbofan. We covered how thrust and fuel consumption varies in the different phases of an airliner’s mission.
Now we will dig a little deeper into how a mission will stress the engine’s different parts.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
With this knowledge, we will later look at how operators make sure their engines are safe and in good operational condition over the 20 years life of an aircraft. Read more
Assessing A330, A350 production futures
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Introduction
Jan. 26, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus A350 production rates are solid at 10/mo through 2022 but can’t support increasing them to the oft-discussed 13/mo, based on LNC’s analysis of the current backlog.
Airbus A330-900 and A350-900. Source: Airbus.
The backlog currently falls off sharply in 2023. At six years out, there is plenty of time to fill the production gap—in theory. The dearth of wide-body orders through the end of the decade could make this challenging.
The A330 is a near-term challenge.
According to an analysis of its backlog, only three-quarters of the delivery slots are filled in 2019 and fewer in 2020. The backlog begins to fall sharply in 2021.
Summary
- A350, like Boeing 787, is not achieving 1:1 book:bill.
- Like the 787, the A350 production is currently living off the backlog.
- A330neo sales are focus at Airbus this year. Delivery schedule falls off in 2019.
Boeing to decide this year 787 production rate of 14/mo
Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing CEO
Jan. 25, 2017: Boeing today reported slightly lower revenues for 2016 vs. 2015.
Revenues were down 2% to $94.6bn vs $96.1bn.
Net profit was down 5% year-over-year, reflecting the lower revenues and after charges on the KC-46A tanker and 747-8 programs. Operating profit was $5.8bn vs $7.4bn.
Net profit under GAAP accounting was $4.4bn vs $5.2bn.
Boeing took a pre-tax $312m charge on the KC-46A in the fourth quarter. Charges are now approaching $2bn.
The full press release is here.
Note that officials will make a decision this year whether to increase 787 production to 14/mo by the end of the decade (see Highlights).
SkyWest MRJ90 commitment unchanged
Jan. 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: SkyWest Airlines, which stunned the aviation community in 2010 with an agreement to order 100 Mitsubishi MRJ90s and options for 100 more, is sticking with the airplane so far in the wake of another delay.
The Japanese company Monday announced a new delay of two more years, making a total of seven. Entry-into-service with launch customer ANA is now slated for 2020. Before this announcement, SkyWest was slated to receive its first airplane in 2019.
“Our conditional firm orders of the MRJ aircraft remain unchanged, and are dependent on flying contracts and scope availability,” a spokeswoman said in an email to LNC.
Mitsubishi lists the SkyWest order as firm on its web site.
A380, from flagship to LCC mass transport
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 23, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The Airbus A380 was introduced as the flagship aircraft for an airline’s fleet. Legacy carriers with a large long-haul network introduced the aircraft on the routes with the most traffic in the network. After an initial rush of inductions, only Emirates continued to buy the aircraft in larger numbers. The aircraft had become too large for the airlines which sought frequency over capacity at their hub airports.
Airbus and its leasing partner, Amedeo, are convinced the aircraft will have a second spring when airport congestion has grown in the next decade. Until then, both are seeking the market niches that will keep production at minimum one aircraft per month.
We sat with Amedeo’s CEO, Mark Lapidus, at the Air Finance Journal conference in Dublin to find out what market will require a new or used A380. Lapidus has spent the last two years in meetings with the world’s major airlines, discussing all aspects of operating an A380. He presented some surprises.
MRJ regional jet delayed until mid-2020
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 23, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Mitsubishi announced a further two years delay of the MRJ regional jet project in a press conference in Tokyo today.
The 90-seater variant of the aircraft will be delivered to the first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), mid-2020.
The previous scheduled Entry Into Service (EIS) of mid 2018, was announced December 2015. In total, the MRJ program has announced five delays, totaling seven years. Read more
Pontifications: Airbus, Boeing single-aisle production rates solid
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The global economy is softening and airlines are deferring airplanes, but we don’t see Airbus or Boeing trimming aircraft production for their single-aisle airplanes.
Over-sales and rising fuel prices support today’s A320 and 737 production rates and the increased rates previously announced by Airbus and Boeing.
While oil prices are low compared with the pre-Great Recession levels, Embraer’s John Slattery noted that fuel costs went up more than 48% last year alone. Fuel now costs more than $50/bbl. West Texas Intermediate Crude was selling at $51.08 Thursday, off $1.40. There will be ups and downs, but the trend is up.
Slattery, the president of Embraer Commercial airplanes, believes “fuel efficient fleets will become more critical in the coming years,” he wrote in a Tweet Jan. 7.
A380 cost analysis
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Introduction
Jan. 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In a sister article, we will describe how Airbus A380 might change from a flagship aircraft for legacy carriers to a competitive tool for long-range LCCs.
This change of the A380’s profile is based on bringing cabin densities to the levels of other long haul aircraft. We have historically made detailed operating costs studies of the A380 versus other large long-haul aircraft.
With the possible change in the aircraft’s operating profile, we decided to update the study with the A380ceo pitted against its main competitors, Boeing’s 777-300ER and 777-9. Different from the previous study, we now compared all aircraft in a higher density, two-class seating.
Summary:
- The A380neo is pushed out in time for now. Airbus has instead started a cabin density program.
- We update the study of A380 versus its main competitors to see if the cabin changes goes far enough.
- In the last study, the A380 had lower seat mile cost than 777-300ER but was beaten by the 777-9.
- We check if a denser cabin makes the A380 competitive with the 777-9