Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
CSeries, the long-ranger for thin routes
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: At the end of 2014, we predicted the Boeing 737 MAX 8 would be used by LCCs to open new long-range destinations. And sure enough, the fourth MAX 8 off the line went to Norwegian Air Shuttle, for trans-Atlantic operations.
The Bombardier CSeries launch of operations from London City Airport last week gave us the chance to discuss CSeries long-range characteristics with Rob Dewar, VP CSeries program at Bombardier.
With the improved performance data to be announced, the CS300 will pass the range of the MAX 8.
To understand with what margin and costs we feed our performance model with the latest information.
Summary:
- At an equivalent load (standard 2 class or HD cabins) the CS300 flies further than the 737 MAX 8.
- It will transport about 30 fewer passengers, in higher comfort and at lower trip costs.
- The seat mile costs will be only slightly higher than the 737 MAX 8.
Air Berlin files for bankruptcy
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 16, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Air Berlin, Germany’s second largest airline, with 85 destinations, 8,000 employees and 72 aircraft, filed for bankruptcy yesterday.
We wrote about Air Berlin’s problems in October last year and we’ve covered its part owner, partner and moneylender, Etihad Airways, in articles this year.
It was the latter that no longer believed in Air Berlin’s turnaround plan and stopped the money flow.
Small airlines face replacement challenges
Aug. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Small airlines face continuous challenges about acquiring modern aircraft at prices they can afford.
There was once a number of manufacturers producing small airliners. British Aerospace (BAe) produced the 19-seat Jetstream and Beech the 19-seat 1900. Saab built the 340 and later the 2000. BAe tried to update the old Hawker Siddeley 748 with the ATP, Advanced Turbo Prop. Fokker upgraded the F-27 to the F-50. Embraer got its start with the small Bandierante and really hit the mark with the Brasilia.
Bombardier produced the Dash-8 40-seat turboprop in competition with ATR’s ATR-42 and both compete with a 70-90 seat turboprop. BBD dropped its Dash 8 and barely holds on with the Q400. ATR is the dominant player now. (China produces a turboprop, but it’s mostly a captive-market airplane.)
BAE, Saab and Beech exited the commuter airplane business. Fokker went out of business. Embraer moved to jets.
This leaves smaller, independent regional and commuter airlines in a real bind. There are simply no replacements for the 19- to 30-seat airliner, save one: the Viking Twin Otter. More about this below.
Pontifications: Avolon sees strong sales for Boeing 737-10
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Avolon, one of the world’s largest aircraft lessors following the acquisition of the CIT Aerospace portfolio, believes Boeing will see 2,000 of the 737-10—doubling the internal figure Boeing used to launch the program.
In a new white paper, which Avolon periodically issues, the lessor “projects that the MAX 10 will account for approximately 20% of all 737 MAX family deliveries, which would equate to around 2,000 aircraft. This compares to the A321neo, which is forecast to account for 40% of the A320neo family, with over 4,000 deliveries,” writes Steve Mason, Avolon’s SVP of Strategy.
Mason joined Avolon from CIT acquisition, where he held a similar position and likewise issued periodic white papers.
“The value proposition of the MAX 9 has been impacted by the launch of the MAX 10. It is unclear what role remains for the aircraft, but it is likely to have a limited future,” Mason writes.
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 7
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 11, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In this Corner, we will design the hybrid propulsion system for our 50-seat regional turboprop. We could see in previous Corners that we can’t use batteries as a backup for our gas turbine core and main generator.
The battery gets too heavy as the specific power weight of a battery is simply too low. We will now design a hybrid power chain with a different redundancy concept.
Figure 1. ATR 42-600 serves as a template for our 50-seat regional turboprop. Source: ATR.
Can Airbus improve the A321neo further? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we started the look into how the Airbus A321neo could be incrementally improved. To understand what can improve an aircraft, ones need to understand its limitations.
The A321neo is mainly limited by its wing, which is highly loaded. But there are ways around this limitation other than developing a new wing, an exercise which would require time, money and a new certification program.
Having understood the limitations, we now look into what can be done about them.
Summary:
- The changes to the wings can be limited to those that are easy to do, resulting in longer range.
- Combined with fuel capacity improvements and stronger engines it produces a very interesting aircraft.
CSeries starts operations from London City Airport
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries has done its first revenue flight to London City Airport. It was a scheduled Swiss International Airlines (SWISS) flight from Zurich that landed on the airport yesterday.
With the CSeries operational from London City, the route network that can be flown from the downtown airport changes significantly. Europe out to Moscow or Las Palmas is accessible and an all business class CS100 could fly direct to New York.
Delta asks Commerce to redefine scope of Boeing-Bombardier case
Bombardier CS100.
Aug. 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Delta Air Lines asked the US Department of Commerce to redefine the scope of the Boeing complaint of Bombardier price dumping in its CS100 order with the carrier, filings at DOC show.
Delta asked the DOC to redefine the aircraft definition from 100-150 seat to 125-150 seats, arguing that Boeing doesn’t make in airplane in the 100-125 seat size and therefore isn’t harmed by competition in the sale of the 110-seat CS100 that Delta ordered.
Key lessors see strong wide-body market despite worries
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Introduction
Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Amid talk that Middle Eastern airlines, which are the largest group of users for wide-body aircraft, may defer Airbus and Boeing airplanes, there are conflicting signs that the bleak view of the sector isn’t as weak as perceived.
Just last week, two big lessors—Air Lease Corp and AerCap–of widebody airplanes said they are confident in the sector.
Few orders have been received for the Boeing 777-8 ultra-long range airplane. Sales for its larger sibling, the 777-9, have stalled. Along with the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8, demand is seen as limited.
AerCap ordered 30 Boeing 787s at the Paris Air Show. ALC has a significant order of Airbus A330neos.
And, the chairman of Emirates Airline said in an interview with the region’s The National newspaper that despite the current challenges at the carrier, it expects to announce an order before the end of the year for either the 787 or the Airbus A350—and possibly the Airbus A380.
Quantities on the former weren’t discussed. Airbus is pitching 20 A380s, according to accounts.
Still, there are a large number of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s coming off lease in the next few years that could slow orders if these aircraft are offered on the secondary market with low enough lease rates.
Summary
- Air Lease Corp.’s wide-body aircraft are placed. A330neo orders late due to engine delays.
- AerCap sees strong wide-body market, reaffirmed with 787-9 order.
- More than 100 A330ceos and 777 Classics potentially entering secondary market soon.
Boeing’s tactical option for MOM sector
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Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s not a done deal yet—the business for the so-called Boeing 797 remains a challenge. But the consensus is that Boeing will launch the program next year, for an entry-into-service around 2025.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
Yet there are airlines that say they don’t want to wait that long for a new airplane.
What are their choices?
Read more
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Posted on August 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
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