Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Oil heading toward $40? Economist still thinks so, with caveats; and: NTSB issues 787 battery report, Azul’s A320/CFM order
Dec. 1, 2014: Adam Pilarski, an economist for the consulting firm Avitas, predicted several years ago that the price of oil would drop to $40bbl. Few believed him.
Oil hit $66 this week, on a steady decline over the past months, and, according to an article by Bloomberg News, could be on its way to $40.
Pilarski, who originally made his prediction in 2011 at a conference organized by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT). He predicted this price by October 2018.
In an interview with Leeham News today, Pilarski concurs that oil may hit $40 soon, though he believes the low end will be in the $40-$50 range. The low price will not for the reasons he outlined in 2011 and neither will it stay at or near $40 for long.
MTU investors day: views of its engine programs, future airplane timelines; separately, Embraer COO interview
Figure 1. Technical milestones have been passed on PW GTF programs for the applications on Bombardier, Airbus, Mitsubishi and Irkut airplanes and are approaching for Embraer. Source: MTU Investors Day. Click to enlarge.
Nov. 30, 2014: MTU Investors Day: MTU is a major participant in engine development and supplies, participating on the GEnx, GTF and GEnx program. It’s also a member of the joint venture in International Aero Engines and it’s a major player in the aftermarket Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector, providing a serious competitive alternative to the aftermarket contracts offered by the engine OEMs. Its held an investors day conference Nov. 25. Highlights included:
- Milestones have been passed on the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fanengine for the Bombardier CSeries, Airbus A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ and Irkut MC-21; and are on schedule for the Embraer E-Jet E2.
- The success of the GTF is requiring huge production commitments.
- The large number of airplane/engine programs require a major ramp-up of production during the next few years.
- The major investment in new engines is largely over for now, leading to the expectation of long-term revenue from MRO.
Happy Thanksgiving, 2014
Today we’re watching the Seattle Seahawks…Go Hawks!
We’re off until Monday.
Odds and Ends: Storm Warnings; Boeing photos now available to everyone; CSeries; Movin’ on up
Nov. 26, 2014:Storm Warnings: We’ve made references in recent posts about airlines on our “Storm Warning Flag” list.
Our 2013 Top Customers and Storm Warning Flag list for wide-body airplanes. The Red are Middle Eastern airlines, blue from Asia and black from the US and Europe. Only one airline for wide-body orders was on our Storm Warning Flag list: AirAsiaX. Expansion and ordering we considered too rapid landed the carrier on the list. Sources: Airbus, Boeing. Click to enlarge.
In 2013, we compiled the Top Customers for Single-Aisle and Twin-Aisle Airplanes for Airbus and Boeing. Here’s our 2013 Storm Warning Flag list. The name comes from the flag, which signals Storm Warnings. This list was compiled before the 777X orders announced at Dubai were firmed up, so the yellow boxes show what the Top 10 Boeing rankings would be had they been. We considered the quantity of orders, the current operations, financial status and other factors in placing a carrier on our Storm Warning Flag list. The Wide-body list also illustrates the growing importance of the Middle Eastern airlines (consider that this was a year ago). The wide-body list is pretty stable.
Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
Nov. 25, 2014: In our article series around the performance of a modern airliner we have now come to the climb after takeoff. 
We started with cruise as this was simplest because the aircraft is flying in steady state, then we looked at the modern turbofan and how this is affected by both altitude and speed. We then examined how this affects the takeoff and today we continue with the climb after takeoff.
Before we start, let’s sum up a few points we need for today:
- Drag is the one thing we always need to be aware of as this regulates how much excess power we have in different flight situations and therefore if we can stay on our altitude or climb.
- Drag diminishes with altitude as the airs density diminishes and thereby our dominant drag component, air friction against our aircraft’s skin. This is the major component of the aircraft’s dominant drag, parasitic drag.
- Our lift force is generated by forcing air downwards and this causes induced drag as this downwash cost energy to generate and maintain. Induced drag is mitigated by a wing with a large span.
Interview: CSeries program update with Bombardier’s program chief Dewar
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Now open to all Readers.
By Bjorn Fehrm and Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Nov. 24, 2014: Bombardier CSeries flight testing has now passed 500 flight hours, and with the addition of Flight Test Vehicle 5 to the test fleet soon, the head of the program believes BBD can hit its entry-into-service target of 2H2015.
Rob Dewar, VP-GM Bombardier CSeries. Source: Fliegerfaust.
Robert Dewar, VP and GM of CSeries, declined to affirm, or even confirm, a report that EIS now has an internal target of October 2015.
In a wide-ranging interview November 24 with Leeham News and Comment, Dewar talked about the flight test program; the repairs to the composite wing of FTV1 following an engine failure that showered the wing with debris; the Fly By Wire software that’s been nettlesome; and other issues.
Summary
- October 2015 now target for Entry-in-Service, reports Canada’s Desjardins. Dewar reiterated the 2H 2015 target, which remains the company’s official statement.
- Bombardier now has a four test aircraft flying with the fifth joining the test fleet around Christmas time.
- The test aircraft has flown the full flight envelope with the Fly By Wires “normal” mode enabled. Right now the testing is concentrated on the FBW failure modes.
- The next important test series is performance with FTV4, which has production engines fitted for the purpose. FTV4 had just had its first flights when the FTV fleet was grounded for three months following the engine failure in May.
- The final assembly facility is finished with its tooling in July and the first aircraft to be assembled there, the second production aircraft, is presently in final assembly in the facility.
Odds and Ends: Korean tanker competition sounds like US rerun; About that blister on the top of airliners; JetBlue explains bags, seats
Korean tanker competition: South Korean is holding a competition for an aerial refueling tanker and in many respects, it sounds like a rerun of the USAF competition between Airbus and Boeing.
In the US contest, major debates happened over Bigger vs Smaller between the A330-200-based KC-330 MRTT and the 767-200ER-based Boeing tanker, which ultimately won and which was named the KC-46A.
This article neatly sums of this same issue in the Korean competition. It’s a matter of greater range, more fueling capacity, vs “enough” and better airport access; and global compatibility.
About that blister: Have you ever noticed the big “blister” in the top of airliner
The “blister” on top of the fuselage contains internet connectivity antennae. The power line appearing to come out of the top of the blister is not part of this. Source: AirlineReporter.com
fuselages? This is for Internet connectivity, an increasingly popular feature on airlines as passengers bring their own Nookbooks, iPads and the like to watch movies or cruise the Net. But aircraft lessors apparently don’t find these features all that desirable and are increasingly talking about having airlines take them out at the end of lease terms. Mary Kirby of Runway Girl Network has this story on the esoteric topic.
JetBlue explains bags, seats: JetBlue is reducing seat pitch and adding bag fees. CFO Mark Powers explains these moves in a Bloomberg News interview.
Little progress on A330 production gap
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Introduction
With the end of the year a mere five weeks away, Airbus appears to have made little progress in closing its production gap for the A330.
Summary
- Airbus still has a gap of approaching 150 production slots at current and announced rates between now and the planned EIS of the A330neo in December 2017.
- Launch of A330neo helps, but does not cure production gap–especially between now and 2018.
- No Chinese order for A330 Regional after more than a year.
- AirAsiaX deferring orders–and will some CEO orders be swapped for the NEO?