Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Pontifications: Hawaiian Air ponders A380
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 31, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Hawaiian Airlines continues to ponder the possibility of acquiring one or two Airbus A380s, its CEO said on the third quarter earnings call—something that raises eyebrows and a lot of questions with industry officials.
Mark Dunkerley, responding to a question on the call, said there are two or three routes that could support the giant A380.
Visit to Bombardier for airBaltic CS300 roll-out
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 27, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: This week we have been at Bombardier (BBD) Mirabel Airport outside Montreal to observe the roll out of the airBaltic CS300 CSeries model and to later test fly the aircraft at BBD’s Wichita facility.
The preparation for the test flight and the flying experience will be described in subsequent articles.
Figure 1. airBaltic’s first CS300 rolled out for local media to see. Source: Leeham Co.
airBaltic will take delivery of the first CS300 by the end of November. This event was for Baltic media to see the aircraft and its final livery for the first time. It was fresh from the paint shop. The group also was able to see the CSeries Final Assembly Line (FAL) and to ask questions to airBaltic CEO Martin Gauss.
The evolving European legacy carrier
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Nice: Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) has fought its way back from a near-death experience in 2012, readjusting to the growing low cost carrier environment in Europe.
After nearly being bought by Lufthansa in 2008 the airline has had to slug it out themselves, gradually fighting its way back to sustained profitability.
Figure 1. SAS will receive 6 Airbus A350 from 2019 to complement the A330. Source: Airbus.
Things are now looking up and the development and future of SAS is a good example of the problematic past and future of European legacy carriers.
Airline assets and lessor assets: Bombardier and Embraer
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Part 2. Part 1 may be found here.
Introduction
Bombardier invented the regional jet. Despite some sales these days, the CRJ was eclipsed by the Embraer J-Jet. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Regional aircraft are much riskier assets for lessors than mainline aircraft.
Until recently, Bombardier and Embraer were the only two regional jet Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs).
Today, the Sukhoi SSJ100 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 join BBD and EMB in this arena.
Summary
- Bombardier’s regional jets CRJ series enjoyed a good life with airlines and lessors, but fell into disfavor as fuel prices spiked.
- BBD’s CSeries was ordered by four lessors, but two of them have question marks.
- Embraer’s E-Jet found good homes with lessors, but some worry about supply-and-demand in the secondary market.
Air Berlin, Europe’s ninth carrier, announces serious makeover
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 06, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Air Berlin, Germany’s second airline and Europe’s ninth largest carrier by passengers carried, announced that it will wet-lease 40 aircraft to Lufthansa together with many European routes, concentrate all tourist operations into a new business unit before spinning it off and that it will reduce staff further.
Figure 1. Air Berlin will focus on its long haul network. Source; Air Berlin.
This comes after combined losses of €1.7bn since 2010. Several restructuring programs have not stemmed the losses. Last year they rose to €0.45bn and they have continued on in 2016. Read more
ISTAT 2016: Air transport market at cross-roads
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We visited ISTAT (International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading) 2016 conference in Barcelona this week. The most interesting part of the conference was the economists panel with discussions between the economist: Brian Pierce, chief economist of IATA; Peter Morris, chief economist at Ascend; and Adam Pilarski, SVP and Head of Consulting, AVITAS.
The economists agreed that the air transport market is at a cross-roads, but not which route it will take.
Let’s start with the market facts presented by IATA’s Pierce: Read more
No sanctions will be levied on Airbus and Boeing in WTO dispute
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Now open to all readers.
Introduction
Sept. 26, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s hazardous to use the word “never,” but the US and European Union will never impose trade sanctions or tariffs on Airbus or Boeing airplanes.
No sane president would do so. (Cue Donald Trump.) It would start a devastating trade war and the collateral damage on innocents in the Airbus-Boeing illegal subsidies disputes would be severely harmed.
Summary
- US tariffs on Airbus aircraft and EU tariffs on Boeing aircraft would hurt engine makers, suppliers—innocents in the illegal subsidy disputes.
- Some key customers order from Airbus and Boeing. Tariffs on one or the other company risk alienating these customers.
- Sanctions/tariffs permitted on other companies, industries.
- Canada, Brazil never imposed sanctions in Bombard-Embraer violations.
The MAX’s first mission: Cross the Atlantic
By Bjorn Fehrm
14 September 2016, ©. Leeham Co: During 2014, we wrote several articles on what could be a good replacement for the Boeing 757-200Ws operated on trans-Atlantic missions. One of the aircraft we looked at was Boeing’s 737 MAX line.
We found that the most promising variant was the 737 MAX 8. It has a standard range without extra tanks of 3,600nm. Its practical maximum network range would be critically dependent on the cabin configuration. The best configuration would be with a light cabin such as that an LCC would use for transatlantic service—that is, not including heavy, lie-flat seats, but rather seats that might be configured with extra legroom and perhaps greater reclining ability. At the time, we looked at Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) as an example.
Figure 1. Norwegian Air Shuttle 737 MAX 8 artist impression. Source: Boeing.
Flight International now reports in their 13-19 September print magazine that Norwegian might be the first taker of the 737 MAX and that the missions would be trans-Atlantic.
The MAX 8 program is running ahead of schedule. Planned Entry Into Service (EIS) was summer 2017 with Southwest Airlines. Southwest still plans to take delivery of their first 737 MAX 8 at that time with operational service starting in September.
But Boeing is ready to deliver 737 MAX 8s as early as March 2017. The customer for these aircraft would be Norwegian and the planned use should be flights between Europe and US East coast. This means the first mission for the “short haul” 737 MAX should be to cross the Atlantic. Read more
Book review: Glory Lost and Found
Sept. 8, 2016: Glory Lost and Found: How Delta Climbed from Despair to Dominance in the Post-9/11 Era is a ponderous title for a ponderous book.
But this is not a criticism.
Glory Lost is one of the best books I’ve ever read about the turmoil in the airline industry. Authors Seth Kaplan and Jay Shabat, two journalists, put together a book of nearly 450 pages that goes beyond just the focus of how Delta Air Lines spiraled into bankruptcy following 9/11, emerged and suffered through more travails after the 2008 financial market meltdown.