Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Flying the Airbus A350
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 25, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Friday we showed our little video from our test flight of Airbus A350 at end of April. Now it is time to describe the impressions during the flight more in detail. Different from the excellent reports of other magazines that were present, we will look deeper into flying an aircraft with Fly By Wire in contrast to a conventionally controlled aircraft and less in trying to compare the A350 with other airliners, as we don’t have this experience.
Our lack of experience in flying airliners has an advantage when it comes to first impression of how it is to fly the much-discussed Airbus Fly By Wire (FBW) concept. My experience so far has all been non-FBW aircraft, from very small and slow (Tiger Moth) to the fast and a bit larger (Mach 1.7 SAAB Draken). In all, I’ve flown 14 different types. To that, one can add having flown the Embraer KC-390 simulator last October. Some of the aircraft have had no servos. Others had 100% servos with artificial feel through springs working on the stick. Autopilots have differed widely from wings leveler to flight director aircraft with coupled ILS approaches. None has had auto-thrust to date except for the KC-390.
Bjorn’s Corner: Bombardier’s and Embraer’s first quarter
By Bjorn Fehrm.
07 May 2015, C. Leeham Co: Last week we looked at Airbus first quarter result and compared its commercial aircraft unit with Boeing’s. Now with do the same with Bombardier and Embraer. As both have sizeable Business jet businesses we will include these in the analysis as they share many technologies and developments with the commercial aircraft.
Embraer reported their results last week and Bombardier today. Both reported quarters in the aerospace area which were a bit inferior to last years first quarter and for the same reason, the Biz jet market has gone soft.
Bombardier, who has a larger proportion of its turn-over in Biz jets, has managed this better, it has delivered more aircraft and generated slightly higher revenue and profits from the area but new orders has been slower.
Embraer does separate its business segments for revenue but not for profits. It reports that the lower revenue and profit for the quarter was mainly because the Biz jet area delivered fewer aircraft at less margin. Commercial aircraft deliveries were strong, with good efficiencies in the production and delivery of E-Jets. Read more
Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus
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Introduction
May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our 
Market Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.
Summary
- First, an overarching look at what to expect;
- What to expect for Airbus at the show;
- The future of the A380neo;
- Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
- Outlook for the A321LR.
United Airlines revises fleet plan
April 23, 2015: United Airlines announced its 1Q2015 earnings today (which will eventually be posted with commentary on SkyWriterAviation.aero). What caught our eye in the press release was the following. United will:
- Complete the removal of more than 130 50-seat aircraft from its schedule by the end of 2015. UAL will remove additional 50-seat aircraft in 2016 and beyond as aircraft come off lease.
- Exchange 10 787 orders with Boeing for 10 777-300ERs for delivery beginning in 2016. The new 777-300ER aircraft will provide attractive upgauge and range opportunities to the company at competitive economics.
- Extend the life of 11 additional 767-300ER aircraft. The company now plans to extend the life of all 21 767-300ER through investments in winglets, reliability improvements and interior modifications, which will improve financial performance and make the aircraft more customer pleasing.
- Reconfigure and transition 10 777-200 aircraft currently used in international markets into the domestic network, and position a number of its trans-Atlantic 757-200 fleet into the domestic and Latin markets, with the extension of the 767-300ER aircraft.
- Acquire additional used narrowbody aircraft. The company is in final negotiations regarding the lease of 10 to 20 used narrowbody aircraft for delivery over the next few years. In addition, the company plans to continue to seek other opportunities to acquire used aircraft to meet its needs as market conditions allow.
Next Gen turboprop R&D continues at Pratt & Whitney
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Introduction
Maria Della Posta, SVP Sales and Marketing, Pratt & Whitney Canada
April 5, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC) continues to develop the next generation turbo prop engine despite little interest from Bombardier for a replacement for its slow-selling Q400 or from Airbus, 50% owner of ATR, dominant producer of this type of aircraft.
Maria Della Posta, SVP of sales and marketing, said PWC is confident demand will prevail over the current lack of interest to see a new airplane program launched as early as 2016 or 2017–though she hedges that this could slip a year or two.
Summary
- In the meantime, PWC continues to undertake Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs) for its ubiquitous PW100 series that is now in its 38th iteration.
- Emerging market ambitions could create new opportunities for PWC to put its next engine on new entrant turbo prop producers.
- Airlines seek a new, larger turbo prop than the Q400 and ATR 72.
Bombardier sees solid future for CRJ
March 20, 2015: C. Leeham Co. Bombardier’s current challenges don’t end with the CSeries. The company has seen its once-dominate positions in the regional jet and turbo prop markets decline precipitously.
Ross Mitchell, VP of Business Acquisition and Commercial Airplanes, Bombardier. Photo: Fleigerfaust.
The CRJ struggles in its sales against the Embraer E-Jet. The Q400’s market share of the turbo prop sector has declined to a mere 10% of the backlog vs ATR.
Still, Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisition and Commercial Aircraft for Bombardier, gave a spirited defense and upbeat outlook of both products during last week’s ISTAT conference in Phoenix. In a one-on-one interview the next day, we posed a series of questions about the CRJ and the Q400. We reported on the Q400 yesterday. Today’s report is about the CRJ.
CRJ’s future
Mitchell said the CRJ has a lower unit cost than the rival Embraer E-175 and E190, the direct competitors to the CRJ-700/900 used most in the USA, where labor Scope Clauses limit the size and number of airplanes that may be operated by the regional airlines on behalf of the legacy carriers.