Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 15, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 3 of this series, we identified the type and size of wing we would have on a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. It’s now time to go through all the considerations around the engines for the aircraft.
Figure 1. Concept for new widebody airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The aircraft would enter the market around 2025. We would have to decide on what size engine that would be needed, what engines would be available at the time and could this project motivate any new engine developments.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body as outlined would require engines in the size class of the Boeing 787-9/10.
- GE and Rolls-Royce have been mentioned as engine suppliers. The question would be: will they offer updated 787 engines or new designs and will Russia compete with its announced engine project for the aircraft?
Boeing’s transition to more automation
Subscription Required
Introduction
Robots drill holes for fasteners. Boeing photo via Google images.
Sept. 12, 2016, © Leeham News: Boeing is on a transition to improve manufacturing efficiency that will take years to complete.
Dominic Gates of The Seattle Times Sunday provided a detailed comparison between the Airbus wing production plant in Broughton, Wales, and Boeing’s 777X wing production plant in Everett (WA).
The Broughton facility is a unit of ElectroImpact of Mukilteo (WA), next to Everett’s Paine Field, where all of Boeing’s wide-body assembly is done. ElectroImpact also is a supplier to Boeing.
Boeing is also adding robotics to the 777 Classic assembly process, from wing-painting to riveting. The latter has some glitches, Gates recently reported. Boeing officials blame delays and traveled work on a three-month strike by supplier Triumph Group. The robotics on the Classic are getting their baptism in advance of becoming the principal method of assembly on the new 777X, which begins in 2018.
Finally, or perhaps not, Boeing began a transition to more automation with the assembly of the 737 MAX. A dedicated, third assembly line was created for the MAX that includes more efficiencies.
Summary
- Boeing, which began shifting to Lean Production and Six Sigma principals a decade or more ago, has made great strides.
- But integrating advanced, automated assembly into mature programs in old factories has its disadvantages to “greenfield” sites and new airplane programs.
- Opportunities to make great leaps forward come with the prospective Middle of the Market airplane and the replacement for the 737.
Russian-Chinese wide-body; The aircraft Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 08, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having covered the possibilities of reusing parts of the Il-96 fuselage for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s now time to look at the existing IL-96 wing and how far this is from a modern design.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The intent is not to propose that the existing wing is reused but rather to check the technology level against western designs and how big a leap it will be for the partners to make a modern high performance wing for the aircraft.
Summary:
- The IL-96 wing is roughly on the technological level of the Airbus A340-300 wing with a bit lower aspect ratio.
- The dimensions are close to what is needed for the new wide-body but sweep and aspect ratio needs to be changed for a new wing.
- A wing for a 2025 long range wide-body also need a more modern construction technology than classical aluminum alloys.
New value Guide: A look at A320, 737
Subscription Required
Introduction
Sept. 5, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The semi-annual update to The Guide, from appraiser Aviation Specialists of Herndon (VA), indicates Airbus and Boeing single-aisle aircraft remain hotly competitive in current market values and future residual values.
The Guide covers all in-production jets from Airbus, Boeing (including McDonnell Douglas), Bombardier and Embraer, plus their out-of-production airplanes. Passenger and freighters, including some P2F conversions, are included. BBD’s CS300 is included, although it doesn’t enter service for another few months.
The Guide is a for-purchase product.
Summary
- The A321ceo, sans sharklets, has a higher current market value than its competitor, the 737-900ER. It also has higher residual value forecast based on the higher Current Market Value starting point, but as a percentage of the starting point, the two airplanes are the same.
- The 737-800W has a better CMV and as a result a better residual value forecast. But it also has a fractionally higher RV as a percentage of the starting point.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
September 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1, we concluded that the existing Il-96 fuselage cross section would be suitable for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. This means that a lot of experience and existing designs for fuselage sections can be re-used.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
Most importantly, it means that mock-ups and cabin sections can be made early in the project to start work on new and better cabin equipment. This is an area where the partners really lag their western competitors.
We will now look at what aircraft capacities can be conceived with the existing Il-96-300 and -400 fuselages and what changes will be necessary to achieve the targeted sizes that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) have communicated.
Summary:
- The IL-96 fuselage can be re-used for a Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- The existing IL96-300 cabin is on the small side whereas the Il-96-400 cabin is a bit larger than needed.
- The project will likely choose an intermediate size fuselage to reach the targeted 250 to 280 passenger capacity.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the capabilities of the joint venture partners for a Russian-Chinese wide-body and its possible market. Now we will look at what kind of aircraft such a cooperation can create, given technology and other constraints.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
There have been bits and pieces leaked to media from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
We will look at what has been said and combine that with our knowledge of existing and future technological capabilities of the parties to make predictions for what aircraft the project can produce.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-bodywill be made to cover the “small wide-body”market.
- Initial size will be a 250-280 passenger wide-body
- The aircraft will be a twin with engines from either GE or Rolls-Royce.
- Range with 280 passengers will be 6,500nm.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The market
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having dissected the players behind the Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s time to look at what market such an aircraft aims to capture.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The project participants, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), say they intend to make a 250-280 seat aircraft with a 6,500nm range.
We will look at what market such an aircraft can address from its Entry into Service (EIS) 2025 and over the next 10 years. We will also discuss the constrains that emerges with UAC and COMAC entering the market as new players.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body covers a market segment called “small wide-body” in the Global market forecast made by Airbus and Boeing.
- Based on data in these forecasts, the dominant market during the first 10 years after a 2025 Entry into Service (EIS) would be a captive Chinese market.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: background and outlook
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The discussions around a joint Russian and Chinese development of a 250-300 seat wide-body has been going on for years.
The project got a more concrete form at President Putin’s visit to China in June. On the 25th of June visit, an inter-governmental agreement to develop and market the aircraft was signed.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
At the same time Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) agreed to establish a joint venture for the program.
What market is this aircraft trying to address and will it become a serious player in the wide-body market? Will it give the duopoly Airbus/Boeing something to worry about?
We will address these questions in a series of articles. Before going into the questions around the wide-body program, we will look at the players, UAC and COMAC. Are they up to the job of making a competitive wide-body aircraft?
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- China’s first airliner project, ARJ21, just received local certification after years of delays.
- Russia has produced over 10,000 airliners and has made two generations of wide-body aircraft in the size category.
- The latest wide-body aircraft, Ilyushin IL-96, is on the level of Airbus A340-300 from a technological basis.
ExIm remains blocked by one US Senator
Subscription Required
Introduction
Aug. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co. The US Congress reauthorized the ExIm Bank after a long effort to kill the institution. But the Bank remains out of business for transactions for more than $10m. This means Boeing can’t use the Bank for export financing for purchasers of its 7-Series airplanes.
Why?
Because the Bank doesn’t have a quorum for its Board of Directors.
Why?
Because one US Senator is blocking appointments that would put the Bank back in business.
Who is this Senator?
US Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) is the lone senator blocking the US ExIm Bank from approving credit support for more than $10m. Boeing was a large beneficiary of ExIm support. Shelby is a supporter of the Airbus A320 plant in Mobile (AL). Photo via Google images.
Richard Shelby of Alabama. Shelby once supported ExIm Bank. Now he doesn’t.
According to news reports, Shelby became a convert to the extreme right’s view that ExIm is a form of corporate welfare and Boeing is its primary recipient. Boeing doesn’t need this support, Bank opponents say.
LNC believes there might be another reason.
Alabama is where Boeing rival Airbus opened an A320 assembly plant last year.
Summary
- Airbus had an advantage over Boeing with ExIm Bank shut down—until Airbus ran into its own export financing issues.
- Boeing has a defense unit in Huntsville (AL).
- Emerging Boeing rival Bombardier retains export credit financing support.
What’s happened to the VLA sector?
Subscription Required
Introduction
Aug. 15, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing says it may discontinue the 747 program.
Airbus put the A380neo on indefinite hold. Qantas Airways says it doesn’t want its last eight orders. The OEM will reduce the production to 12/yr in 2018.
There haven’t been any Boeing 777X sales since June 2015. There are only six identified customers and there has been a new, identified customer added since July
Boeing is considering a larger 777-10, which will carry 50 more passengers than the 777-9. But is there a market? Boeing photo via Google images.
2014, when ANA ordered the X.
Sales have dried up for the 365 passenger Boeing 777-300ER and only a smattering of orders have come in for its competitor, the Airbus A350-1000.
What’s happened to the Very Large Aircraft sector? What’s happened to the large, medium twin aircraft sector?
Summary
- The VLA market pioneered by Boeing and pursued by Airbus is virtually nonexistent.
- Yet there are those in Boeing who want to launch a 450-passenger 777-10 into a dubious market demand.
- 777 Classic sales dried up, but A350-1000 isn’t doing great, either. Are these too big, too?