April 28, 2015: Airbus is celebrating 10 years of its A380 super jumbo.
Just about everybody else is taking pot shots at it.
There’s little doubt the airplane is a masterful achievement. But production miscues delayed the airplane by two years, the market moved on it and when it was envisioned in the late 1990s, the Boeing 777-9 wasn’t.
So 10 years after entry-into-service, and a mere 15 after the program was launched, Airbus faces a crossroads: does it re-engine the airplane on an iffy business case or can it come up with enough Performance Improvement Packages for the airframe and with the engine makers chipping in to give it new life until the market grows into the airplane–if it ever does, say detractors.
Some at Boeing we talked with are rooting for Airbus to take the neo plunge. Read more
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
26 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: With Emirates Airlines deciding for Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines for its 50 new A380s and admitting that it would accept that this could be for all of them if Airbus does not proceed with an A380neo, the time has come to look at how much incremental improvements can be brought on the present A380.
Our proprietary aircraft model is particularly suited for such studies as we can change any parameter and read the result off the efficiency scale. We can also play with the aircraft’s configuration and see what effect it will have. Based on Emirates’ new configuration of A380s equipped with the Trent 900 engine, we have checked what incremental improvements are doable and what would they bring.
Summary
Rolls-Royce, in a major upset, won the Emirates Airlines order to power 50 Airbus A380s ordered in November 2013. The win displaces Engine Alliance, which to now has been the sole-source provider for EK’s A380s.
Two sources confirmed the RR win. RR and Airbus did not comment on the win. EK and RR have not made any announcement. EA also did not comment.
According to one source, EK determined the RR Trent 900 was determined to be up to 4% more efficient than EA. But it’s unclear if there were other factors involved. Read more
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Introduction
April 14, 2015: Several airlines operate the Boeing 757 across the Atlantic on “thin” routes but sometimes have to do refueling tech stops when high westerly winds
occur.
The 757s are aging, with engine maintenance, repair and overhaul costs increasing under the tightly-controlled contract with Rolls-Royce and Pratt & Whitney.
Some airlines want a “757 replacement.” Boeing and Airbus don’t see a market for “just” a 757 replacement and argue the 737-900ER/9 and A321neo/LR are the replacements. Even these fall somewhat short.
Industry observers and pontificators nonetheless are obsessed with a “757 replacement” (except us—we’ve redefined the replacement as one needed for the 225/5000 Sector [225-250 seats, 5,000 miles] and concluded an airplane very similar to the 767-200 is needed).
While all this debate is going on, Aviation Partners Boeing (APB) is close to seeking board approval to offer a scimitar option for the 757 that will improve efficiency by about another 1.5%. A scimitar for the Boeing 767 may not be far behind.
Summary
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
12 April, 2015: In our study of the options for Boeing’s market study called Middle of the Market (MOM), we could conclude that the most likely aircraft to cover their 200-250 seat 4750nm range requirement would be a seven abreast twin aisle aircraft using their patented new oval construction, thereby saving weight and drag.
After finishing the series, Readers requested that we conclude the work by showing what market segment a family of such airliners would cover and how they would relate to the Boeing 787-8. As it is pretty straight forward to see with our aircraft performance model how much of a range of aircraft variants one can make from one base development of aircraft and engine, we decided to fulfill the wish from our Readers.
We have therefore looked at how far the concept MOM airliner could be stretched and what segment in the market would be covered by it. We also studied how much such a family would encroach on Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner market.
Summary
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary