Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Engine OEMs diverge on technology for next generation
March 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Representatives of the four major commercial engine
GE9X, the final engine in a decade-long engine renewal program for GE Aviation and CFM International
manufacturers have divergent views of the next round of engine development, either for the Middle of the Market/New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) or New Small Airplanes (NSA) coming in the next decade.
Officials of CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce appeared at the annual ISTAT conference in San Diego yesterday.
PW’s Rick Deurloo, SVP of Sales, Marketing Commercial Engines, had the added task of dealing with the highly-publicized teething issues surrounding its new Geared Turbo Fan engine on the Airbus A320neo.
Boeing soft launch for 737 MAX 10
Boeing 737 MAX 8. The MAX 10 is a double-stretch of this baseline aircraft.
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing effectively did a soft launch today of the 737-10 MAX at the ISTAT Americas conference in San Diego.
Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing, revealed basic specifications for the MAX 10, the first time Boeing has done so in a public forum.
Pontifications: Boeing 737-9 roll-out–Nothing Special in the Air
By Scott Hamilton
March 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing rolls out its 737-9 MAX tomorrow.
Last week, I received a call from one of the network/cable news organizations asking, What’s special about this airplane?
The answer is: Nothing.
Long-haul cost differences
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The single-aisle, long-haul operations are on the increase. The new re-engined Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX generations are good for destinations of up to 3,000 nm, after taking into account reserves, winds and alternates planning. The Airbus A321LR is good for up to 3,500nm sectors.
Last week, we showed the Bombardier CS300 is joining the crop of single-aisles capable of 3,000nm city pairs, the distance between London and New York.
We also wrote the cost level of the single-aisle aircraft is competitive with the next step up dual-aisle, the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo.
But how do the different cost areas pan out? Is fuel cheaper or more expensive for the dual-aisle? What about the single-aisle crew costs? For clarity, we engage our cost model.
Summary
- The total costs are similar per seat mile for single and dual aisle, but the parts are not.
- The fuel costs per seat are surprisingly similar; the differences are to find in other places.
AirAsia X; the long route to profitability
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 1, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: AirAsia X, the long haul sister of Tony Fernandes’ AirAsia, finally turned a profit during 2016. The airline, which started operation in 2007, had a bumpy ride from the start.
Initial operations were when fuel prices was at the highest, and the aircraft chosen, the Airbus A330-200 and A340-300, weren’t the most economical.
After scaling back operations in 2012 and focusing the fleet on the more economical A330-300, the business gradually turned. The low fuel prices of 2015-2016 finally brought the airline profitability for the last fiscal year. Read more
Pontifications: Boeing 777 production rates
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: When Boeing announced it will reduce 777 production to 5/mo, with actual deliveries of the 777 Classic to 3.5/mo beginning in 2018, the aerospace analyst at Goldman Sachs immediately concluded Boeing will have to reduce the rate to 2-2.5/mo.
Since then, and other analysts (whether publicly or privately) reached a similar conclusion.
On the 4Q/YE2016 earnings call in January and again last week at a Barclays conference, company executives said 90% of the positions in 2018 and 2019 are sold.
Shortly after the Barclays conference ended, one analyst called me to challenge the assertion by Greg Smith, Boeing’s CFO, about 2019. By his assessment, the analyst could only get to 60% in 2019. Did I see anything differently?
59% or 74%, but not 90%
At that point, I hadn’t looked. When I did later, I got to 59% based on firm orders. I could get to 74%, giving Boeing every benefit. But I couldn’t get to 90%.
Bjorn’s Corner: Aircraft engines in operation, Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 24, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: After having analyzed how the engine gets stressed during different phases of flight, we now look into how engines are used. The de-rating of engines for takeoff is important, as not 100% thrust is needed for all takeoffs. If the aircraft is lightly loaded or is taking off from a long runway, with low temperatures or altitude, the engine can be thrust de-rated so that it experiences less stress.
Once in the air, the engine is run below maximum settings by use of cost-index. These actions will result in less fuel usage and also longer engine operation between overhauls. We will now finish the operations part of our engine clinic with how airlines keep the engines away from the workshops by swapping the engines between fleet aircraft.
Figure 1. Principal picture of a direct drive turbofan. Source: GasTurb.
A visit to the engine workshop costs in the millions of dollars, so the longer the engine can operate before a shop visit, the better. Read more
Boeing company uses A321 in website promo
Feb 23, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: A Boeing company, Inventory Locator Service, yesterday posted an Evolution of Boeing graphic on its website that traces key points in
Boeing’s history.
There was a problem, however: the airplane at the top of the graphic, which was photo-shopped with Boeing 737 identification, was an Airbus A321.
A Twitter storm immediately commenced after one person saw the Evolution and posted it on his Facebook page.
It isn’t the first time an Airbus airplane showed up in a Boeing-focused promo piece. The promo piece was still up last night, but may not be when the company opens for business in the Midwest today.
The graphic is posted below the jump in this post.
The A321 wasn’t the only problem. A 747-8 was used to represent the first flight of the 747-100. A 737NG freighter represented the first flight of the 737, which was the -100 series. A 787–which didn’t even exist at the time–was used to represent the 1997 merger with McDonnell Douglas. And a 777F was used to represent the first flight o the 78.
This isn’t the first time an Airbus A320 was used to promote Boeing.
In November 2013, the Washington Aerospace Partnership (“WAP,” as in upside the head, somehow seemed fitting) used an A320 in a full page Seattle Times advert touting the state as the best place in the US to do aerospace business.