Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
Airbus, Boeing backlogs in US, EU and tariff exposure
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers.
Introduction
April 25, 2019, © Leeham News: With the European Union now listing aircraft among the US products that will be subject to tariffs, in retaliation for the United States plan to levy tariffs on airplanes and other goods, Airbus faces a greater exposure than Boeing in a trade war.
The US proposes tariffs on aircraft, fuselages, wings and other components produced by the four Airbus member states: France, Germany, Spain and the UK.
Summary
- Airbus has more aircraft in backlog to the US than Boeing does to the EU.
- Delta Air Lines is the biggest Airbus US customer, followed by lessor GECAS.
- Ireland, with its lessors and discount carrier Ryanair, is Boeing’s biggest customer in the EU.
- The UK carriers are a distant second to Ireland, but Brexit muddles the picture.
Initial analyst reaction to Boeing 1Q earnings
April 24, 2019: Initial analyst reaction to Boeing’s 1Q2019 earnings, which were impacted by the grounding of the 737 MAX two weeks before the engine of the quarter, was positive.
Pre-market trading was initially up more than $6; at this writing an hour later, this eased, coming off slight to being up just under $6.
Here is the initial reaction from analysts:
Boeing 1Q earnings down on MAX grounding; full impact to come
April 24, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing took a $1bn revenue hit in the first quarter ended March 31, following the grounding of the 737 MAX on March 13.
Earnings from operations reported today were off $525m; net earnings were down $328m.
The press release is here.
The stock market took the news in stride; pre-market trading saw Boeing stock rise more than $6 (1.66%) an hour before opening.
The MAX was grounding March 13, affecting only two weeks of the first quarter. The full impact is to come. As a result, Boeing suspended guidance for the year and will reissue it at a later date.
EU lists goods, including airplanes, subject to tariff in WTO trade war
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: The European Union late last week released its list of US goods, including non-military airplanes (read: Boeing 
airliners) that will be subject to tariffs if the US proceeds to levy tariffs on $11bn in goods.
The EU upped the ante, valuing its list at up to $20bn.
Latest engine problem means NMA EIS slides
Subscription Required
Introduction
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: If there remains any doubt that Boeing’s prospective New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) won’t be ready for entry into service (EIS) by 2025, it should be dispelled by now.
The grounding of the 737 MAX March 13, which is likely to continue well into the summer, will delay any launch of the program—should Boeing proceed.
The Board of Directors is unlikely to approve Authority to Offer (ATO) the NMA for sale as long as the cash flow for the MAX is outgoing and not in-coming.
Although this has its own impact on the NMA timing, it’s not the critical factor.
Last week, it was revealed that the CFM LEAP engine on the MAX (and the Airbus A321neo) has a problem called coking, which led to the contained engine failure of a Southwest Airlines MAX being ferried from Orlando (FL) to Victorville (CA) for the grounding of the Boeing airplane (see here and here). It’s the latest in a long line of engine maker problems with their current generation of powerplants.
This issue is unrelated to the MAX MCAS grounding. It also affects some engines on the A320neo family.
Summary
Pontifications: Collins Aerospace resolved to compete for aftermarket services
By Scott Hamilton
April 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Moves by Airbus, Boeing and Embraer to increase their shares of aftermarket services are viewed by their own suppliers with a mix of trepidation or resolve, depending on who they are.
For Collins Aerospace, it’s resolve.
It’s also about become more efficient with advanced manufacturing of its parts supplied to the aerospace industry. This reduces costs, lead times and takes advantage of Collins’ own engineers and designs for value-added services to its customers.
I spoke with two officials from Collins at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta April 9-11.
Bjorn’s Corner: MCAS fix on the way
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 19, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Boeing’s CEO Dennis Muilenburg yesterday flew with the final version of the updated MCAS software on a 737 MAX. It will now enter certification flights, having completed 120 Boeing test flights.
Here my perspective on MCAS and the overall Boeing 737 safety record.
Union asks Congress to intervene in Boeing inspection issue
Subscription Required
By Bryan Corliss
April 15, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing faces federal investigations, shareholder lawsuits, Congressional hearings – and possibly subpoenas – linked to the 737 MAX crashes, another issue flying low on the radar could further complicate the company’s relationship with the Federal Aviation Administration and the elected officials who oversee it.
The issue revolves around the company’s plan to end quality control inspections for several thousand tasks performed by Boeing mechanics in the factory.
That plan – first reported by The Seattle Times in January – involves the use of more “smart tools” to perform work more precisely so that inspections will no longer be required for thousands of tasks. Instead of doing quality checks 100% of the time, as Boeing inspectors have been doing for generations, inspectors will sample 1-in-100 tasks, or maybe less, Boeing executives told the newspaper.
Now, the union for inspectors whose work is going away is asking its influential supporters in Congress to intervene with the FAA. It wants a chance to show the agency data it says proves that the new process will lead to more downstream rework on the assembly line, more injured workers and more production delays.
Summary
- Borrowing from the auto business
- Union says bad decisions put deliveries at risk
- Boeing says new system brings down defects
Read more
Training is a factor in the MAX crashes
By Scott Hamilton
April 15, 2019, © Leeham News: This column will no doubt light up the blog-o-sphere.
There’s been a major debate going on since the crash of Lion Air JT610, the Boeing 737-8 MAX that immediately became a huge controversy.
Boeing immediately blamed the pilots. So did some pilots of some US airlines, who said if the Lion Air crew had just flown the airplane, it wouldn’t have crashed. It was a training issue, some said.
Having got tremendous blow back over Lion Air, Boeing publicly held its tongue when Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 crashed five months later.
Still, Boeing officials quietly still said there was nothing wrong with the airplane.
Some US and Canadian pilots maintained, publicly and privately, that a lack of training and pilot skills in the Third World was responsible.
They’re not entirely wrong.
Read more
From the sidelines at MRO America, Day 2; the real reason for 737 production rate cutback
April 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Conversation from the sidelines of the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in Atlanta on Day 2:
Ramping the 737 production back up
Boeing already has its plans for ramping production of the 737 back up from the current rate reduction of 42 airplane per month.
According to the information here, this is the schedule for ramping back up:
Read more