Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 27. June 20, 2025
- Pontifications: A Personal Note June 19, 2025
- Airbus books 142 firm orders as Boeing retracts from the Paris Air Show June 19, 2025
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
PNAA Conference: Boeing’s supply chain chief: we are in a more-for-less world today
The quotations are paraphrased.
Feb. 11, 2015: The reality is that we are in a more for less world now, says Kent Fisher, vice president and general manager, Supplier Management, for Boeing Commercial Aircraft. The reality is that getting paid of technology advances is over. We have to cut costs as a result, he said at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference today in Lynnwood (WA).
JP Morgan aerospace analyst Joe Nadol dies in train-car collision
It is shocking and very sad news that the aerospace analyst for JP Morgan, Joe Nadol, died in that horrific Metro North-SUV crash Tuesday north of New York City.
I knew Joe professionally, though casually, and regarded him as one of the better aerospace analysts. He covered Boeing and was the first analyst to predict the 787 would be late.
All of us who knew Joe must be stunned by this news. I know I am.
Nadol was just 42. He is survived by his widow and three young children.
By Scott Hamilton
Exclusive: Emirates Airlines gets pitch for 100 Boeing 747-8s
- Update, 3:30pm PST: For those who may not be adept at reading literally what was written, we did not say Boeing made the pitch.
Feb. 4, 2015: In a pitch designed to save the Boeing 747-8 and simultaneously kill the prospect of an Airbus A380neo, Emirates Airlines has received a pitch for 100 of the slow-selling Boeing, two sources familiar with the situation tell Leeham News and Comment (LNC). This is isn’t yet a formal proposal, as far as we know.
Tim Clark, president of Emirates, said he would buy 100 A380s if Airbus re-engined and launched the neo. The neo would use the new Rolls-Royce Advance engine, according to two different sources. Neither Pratt & Whitney nor GE Aviation, which dominate the current A380 engine market share with its joint venture Engine Alliance GP7200, are interested in developing a new engine for the prospective A380neo, according to public statements by both companies. PW doesn’t offer an engine alone that could be adapted to the size required for the A380neo. GE’s GEnx engine, used on the Boeing 787, is in the thrust and size bracket but would only improve the efficiency with 4-5%, thus not worth the change effort. The smaller version of the GEnx is on the 747-8. Read more
Airbus/Boeing production rates forecast through 2020
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Introduction
Feb. 3, 2015: Boeing out-delivered Airbus in 2014, for the second year in a row, as the 787 program improved in delivery rates and before the A350 made its first delivery in December.
Topping Airbus in deliveries allowed Boeing to claim it is the world’s leading 
commercial airplane manufacturer. By the delivery metric, Boeing is. By orders, Airbus came in first again, maintaining a decade-long lead.
The A350 ramps up its production this year even as the A330ceo rate begins to come down at the end of the year and further next year. Boeing vows to maintain the current production rate of the 777 Classic at 100/yr. The 747-8 rate is declining. And both companies are ramping up rates of the single-aisle airplanes.
The production wars continue.
Summary
- Airbus is forecast to out-produce Boeing by 2018.
- Boeing’s ramp-up of the 737 line will drive the delivery stream.
- The 737 rate may hit 63/mo by 2020.
- Airbus will likely match.
Triumph Group loss on 747-8 gives more clues on program status
Triumph Group revealed an unexpectedly large forward loss related to the ailing Boeing 747-8 program on its fiscal third quarter financial results last week.
The forward loss was triggered by Boeing’s decision in December to reduce the production rate from 1.5/mo to 1.3/mo from September this year.
Investment bank Canaccord had this to say in its note following Triumph’s earnings call:
Airbus A400M; how good and how late?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
01 Feb 2015: Six years ago Tom Enders, then-CEO for Airbus (when the parent was named EADS), threatened to stop the A400M project. He then played hardball to get eight European states to understand they had to pay 5bn Euro more or get no plane. Airbus existence could be threatened by a project that its management when the program was launch (CEO Jean Pierson) did not want but that the politicians convinced Pierson’s successor, Noel Forgeard, to do.
Airbus A400M Atlas landing at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Wikipedia.
Now Tom Enders is CEO of Airbus Group and has to apologize to the same governments that he struck a deal with then to finish the project if Airbus got the money and a consent to three years of delays. Now Airbus can no longer fulfill the terms and the airplane is still falling short of performance specifications. Deliveries have been delayed further and promised capabilities will be delivered later than said. Like then, heads are rolling at Airbus and tighter control is being applied.
Summary
- The A400M rests between the Lockheed Martin C-130 and the Boeing C-17.
- European countries need an airlifter for military and humanitarian missions.
- Dirt airstrip capability is needed.
- The program will take longer to complete and this time Airbus has to pay.