Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
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- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
Farnborough Air Show, July 16: MRJ program analysis
After a long drought of orders or even LOIs and MOUs, the Mitsubishi MRJ program saw some life at this Farnborough Air Show.
Sales of Japan’s first commercial airplane since the propeller-era’s YS-11 stalled with orders from SkyWest Airlines, Trans States Airlines and Japan’s ANA.
But at the FAS, Mitsubishi announced an MOU with Eastern Air Lines, a US start-up carrier, for up to 40 and a much smaller order for six from Air Mandalay.
The Eastern MOU can fairly come under scrutiny if for no other reason than the company is a start-up. Little is known about its financial fund raising and the business model–to begin as a charter airline and transition to a scheduled carrier in the highly competitive US Southeast–doesn’t instill a lot of confidence. EAL, named after the old trunk carrier that went out of business in 1991, has also ordered the Boeing 737-800 after initially announcing plans to begin service with the Airbus A320.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show, July 15: Orders summary
Here are the orders and commitments announced today that we saw–there could be others we haven’t seen:
- Airbus: Avolon (a lessor) ordered 15 A330neos; CIT Aerospace, MOU for 16 A330-900s, five A321neos; SMBC Aviation (lessor), 110 A320neo and five A320ceo aircraft; BOC Aviation, 36 Airbus A320ceo and seven A320neo family 17 of which will be fore the A321 family; AirAsiaX, MOU 50 A330-900s.
- ATR: Air Lease Corp. purchased seven ATR-72-600s.
- Boeing: Intrepid Aviation, 6+4 777-300ERs; Air Lease Corp, six 777-300ERs, 20 737-8s; CIT Aerospace, 10 787-9s.
- Bombardier: One Q400 from Horizon Air; revealed an unidentied customer, Abu Dhabi Aviation, for two Q400s; LOI from Falcon Aviation for five Q400s.
- CFM: Air Lease Corp. ordered the LEAP-1A for 20 A320neo family aircraft.
- Embraer: Azul Air, LOI for 30+20 E-195 E2 (and becomes launch customer for this sub-type); Fuji’s Dream Airlines, 3+3 E-175s, a previously unidentified customer.
- Mitsubishi: six MRJ90s from Air Mandalay.
- Pratt & Whitney: SaudiGulf Airlines orders the V2500 to power four A320ceos; Philippine Airlines executes a previous LOI to a firm order for the GTF for 10 A320neos; BOC Aviation, V2500 for eight of the A320ceo family listed above; International Airlines Group (Vueling Airlines), V2500 for 30 A320ceo family.
- Viking Air: Air Seychelles, two Twin Otters.
Items of note:
- Airbus’ John Leahy says he expects a total of 100 A330neo orders from FAS;
- BOC Aviation endorsed the launch of the A330neo but didn’t (yet) order any.
- Boeing said its new 777X will have a cabin altitude of 6,000 ft, the same as the 787, larger windows than its 777 Classic and the A350; features borrowed from the 787 and many that go beyond the 787 passenger experience; and lower noise.
- Bombardier launched its Q400 Combi, seating 50 passengers and carrying 8,200 lbs of cargo.
- Steven Udvar-Hazy, CEO of Air Lease Corp, which has a large order book for the ATR-72-600, says, the Q400 is a good aircraft, but “much more expensive to operate” vs ATR. [However, that’s at the Q400’s high cruising speed. If it’s throttled back, the operating costs are said by BBD to be comparable.–Editor.]
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
737-8, 777-300ER, 777X, A320ceo, A320NEO, A321NEO, A330-900neo, A330neo, Airbus, ATR-72, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, GTF, LEAP-1A, Leap-1B, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Q400, Q400 Combi, Twin Otter, Viking Aircraft
Farnborough Air Show, July 15: WA State and Mitsubishi; PW GTF issue revealed, finally;
The news that Mitsubishi will stage flight testing for its new MRJ 90-seat jet program at Moses Lake (WA) is, parochially, good news. And it is exactly the type of non-industrial aerospace business that we’ve been advocating for Washington since our consulting days to the State Department of Commerce in 2010, and during our tenure as a member of the Board of Directors for the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) for three years (2010-2013).
Washington, understandably, has been married to, and focused on, industrial aerospace. Boeing is here, of course. The supply based the supports Boeing has a huge footprint in Washington. But industrial business is highly capital-intensive, and winning this business is highly competitive.
Posted on July 15, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney
777-9, 777X, Airbus, Beyond Boeing, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, Gov. Christine Gregoire, Gov. Jay Inslee, GTF, Japan Air Lines, Jim McNerney, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Pratt & Whitney GTF, Space Shuttle
Farnborough Air Show, July 15: E-Jet program analysis
Embraer Monday at the Farnborough Air Show revealed its new interior designed the for E-Jet E2, the re-engined and re-winged airplane scheduled to enter service in 2018 through 2020 in the 195, 190 and 175 subtypes each year.
We had the opportunity to preview the prototype for this interior in May while visiting EMB’s Florida offices, but the viewing was put off the record in anticipation of the FAS reveal. We were impressed.
The YouTube video linked above shows the most notable feature at about 1:45: the staggered first class section. For anyone who has flown the current generation E-Jet, you will know that first class is 1×2, a reduction in the 2×2 coach seating. We’ve always complained that the overhead bin on the one-seat side was reduced to a fairly useless size (we joked that it barely could accommodate a water bottle). The design for first now allows for 2×2 seating.
Posted on July 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show, July 14: Orders Summary
Here are orders that were announced on the first official day of the Farnborough Air Show (at least the ones we’ve seen from Seattle–feel free to add to the list if we’ve missed any):
- Airbus: from Air Lease Corp: 25 A330neos and 60 A321neos. British Airways converts 20 A320neo options to firm orders; 20 A320neos from AerCap.
- ATR: NAC places firm order for 75 ATR 42-600s.
- Boeing: Announced what had been leaked before the show–30 737-8s from Monarch Airlines, an important “flip” from incumbent Airbus; six 737 MAX 8s and four Next-Generation 737-800s from Okay Airlines; six 787-9 Dreamliners and five additional 737 MAX 9 from lessor Avolon.
- Bombardier signed LOIs with: Chinese airline Loong Air for 20 CS100s; Petra Airlines of Jordon for two CS100s and two CS300s; and it converted a previously announced LOI for Falcon Air of Abu Dhabi for two CS300s to a firm order. BBD also revealed a previously unidentified follow-on order for three CS300s from Air Baltic. This was announced at the Singapore Air Show.
- CFM International won the large engine order from American Airlines to power its A319neo/A321neo fleet. We reported June 19 that this deal would come down to commercial terms, according to American CFO Derek Kerr. Given CFM’s position on the Boeing 737-800, 737-8 and Airbus A319ceo; and GE Aviation’s presence on AA’s widebody fleet, plus whatever maintenance agreements also exist, CFM/GE was in a position to offer commercial terms that Pratt & Whitney could not when offering the GTF. Also as previously noted, CFM won the easyJet A320neo family order for 270 engines.
- Embraer: 50 “reconfirmable” and 50 options for the E-175-E2 from Trans States Airlines of the USA.
- Mitsubishi: Eastern Airlines signed an MOU for 20 firm and 20 purchase rights for this MRJ90. Parenthetically, we’re happy that Mitsubishi also announced it will test the MRJ in Moses Lake (WA).
- Pratt & Whitney won the GTF order for VivaAerobus’s 40+40 A320 fleet and the V2500 for 12 A320ceos.
Things of note:
- Airbus predicts sales of 1,000 A330neos, plans two year overlap in production of A330ceo. EIS 4Q2017.
The sniping between Airbus and Boeing continues:
- “The only way a passenger will know he’s not on a 787 is that the seats will be bigger,” says John Leahy of the A330neo vs the Boeing 787. Leahy gives good quote.
- Ray Conner, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, calls the A330 an airplane of the 1980s. (Careful, Ray: the 737 MAX and the 747-8 are airplanes of the 1960s….)
Posted on July 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show, July 13: CSeries program analysis
The unexpected pre-Farnborough Air Show announcement by Bombardier for letters of intent for up to 24 CS100s is welcome news for the company and the program.
Although an announcement by Falko Regional Aircraft Leasing of a firm order would have been more welcome, history shows that LOIs tend to be converted into firm orders eventually, whether these are from Airbus, Boeing, Embraer–or Bombardier. With the Falko LOI, BBD now has 471 firm orders and commitments for the CSeries.
Hand-wringing headlines and stories over May’s engine incident in which a Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan during a CSeries ground test and the assumed hugely negative impact on the program these stories and headlines suggest are way overblown.
Posted on July 13, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Farnborough Air Show preview
The Farnborough Air Show is just around the corner, and we don’t expect the event to be especially newsworthy.
Here are our expectations for the show:
Airbus
Market expectations are that Airbus will launch the A330neo at the air show, and we know John Leahy, COO of Customers, would like to do so at this event. His bosses, Fabrice Bregier and Tom Enders, have been less than encouraging that this announcement could come at the show.
Although news stories last week indicated Airbus’ board may green light the program in advance of the FAS, it was nonetheless reported that a formal public launch may not be made at the show. So what might happen? An “Authority to Offer,” or ATO, might be how Airbus proceeds. We don’t think there will be firm orders ready to go when the FAS begins July 14—although certainly Airbus could also take Boeing’s 777X approach and announce “commitments” as was done at the Dubai Air Show.
We are skeptical whether there might be any A330 Classic orders announced, as customers await the neo. We certainly expect the usual orders for the A320 Family. We expect A350 orders. We’re doubtful of A380 orders.
Posted on July 7, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Embraer’s enhanced E-Jet passenger experience
We flew in a new American Airlines (operated by Republic Airways) Embraer E-Jet E1 on our way to the Pratt & Whitney media day and noticed the difference immediately with the E-Jet” Classic.”
It’s the “passenger experience.”
The E-Jet Classic had overhead bins that were better than the Bombardier CRJ and Embraer ERJ but non as good as the Airbus A320, Boeing 737 or the forthcoming Bombardier CSeries. The bins could accept larger bags than could the CRJ and ERJ but not as big as the other jets. The port side bin in the E-Jet Classic was a narrow little thing that we joked could accept your water bottle and that was about it.
The new E-Jet E1 Enhanced bins are much better. While the port side first class isn’t as big as the starboard side, it now accepts briefcases, tote bags and small backpacks. The star board bin easily accepts roller backs sized for three nights away, though Airbus, Boeing and CSeries still have an advantage.
Posted on May 21, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
PW Media Day 2: GTF gets 35,000 lb thrust rating
Pratt & Whitney today confirmed that it will offer a Pure Power Geared Turbo Fan engine with 35,000 lbs of thrust, an increase of two thousand pounds from the previously announced model that powers the Airbus A321neo.
Officials declined to confirm our previously reported thrust bump for the Bombardier CSeries GTF, continuing to stick with its prepared statement.
Thrust bumps are largely considered for hot-and-high operations, where the extra boost is needed to get off the runway with maximum payload. In most operations, the extra thrust isn’t needed. The trade for the extra thrust is higher maintenance costs.
Airlines, according to one engineer, tell engine OEMs that they don’t want the extra thrust as the engine is being designed because of the associated extra costs, but then invariably later say they do.
Market Intelligence tells us CFM is going to provide a 35,000 lb model of the LEAP that powers the A321neo and the Boeing 737-9 MAX.
Separately, PW announced:
- Six prototype V2500 engines built by affiliate International Aero Engines were shipped to Embraer for its KC-390 MRTT tanker. Flight testing will begin this year and certification is expected in the third quarter.
- PW is “significantly” increasing capacity in advance of increased engine production demands for the civil and military markets.
- PW signed $10bn in long-term supplier agreements with 90 companies globally for civil and military engines.
Posted on May 20, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
PW Media Day 2: President’s overview
Paul Adams, president of Pratt & Whitney, called 2013 a “transformational” year during his overview at PW’s Media Day today.
The CSeries GTF was certified and Embraer selected the GTF to power its E-Jet E2. Bombardier’s first CSeries also flew for the first time, representing the first time the GTF became airborne on an airliner (as opposed to PW’s Boeing 747SP test bed).
Adams said that PW, like other airframe and engine OEMs, plans to grow its after-market business as a profit center. By continuing to integrate the V2500 producer International Aero Engines and P&W AeroPower (APUs), Adams said that this is key to the transformational strategy going forward. Growing commercial and military engines is also key.
Integrating IAE presents “one face to the customer,” Adams said, particularly as the V2500 program on the Airbus A320ceo ramps down as the GTF-powered A320neo program ramps up. The aftermarket for the 6,000 V2500s now in service and about 2,000 more to be delivered before the program ramps down will be an important profit center going forward.
Adams said that PW now has greater than a 50% market share on the A320neo family vs the CFM LEAP. The first two flight engines have been delivered to Airbus.
Adams announced that PW will offer a 35,000 lb thrust version of the GTF on the A321neo.
Posted on May 20, 2014 by Scott Hamilton