Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus appears poised to launch A321XLR
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Introduction
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: The longer Boeing dithers on launching the New Midmarket Airplane, the harder it is to close an already difficult 
business case.
News last week that Airbus finally, at long last, is appears about to launch its Xtra Long Range A321XLR this year is overdue. Doing so will make Boeing’s NMA business case more difficult to close.
The aircraft should have been launch in late 2017, an insider told LNA recently. But the corruption scandals enveloping Airbus disrupted plans and drove executives to indecision. Launching the A321XLR was put on hold.
Summary
- Killing the NMA.
- A321XLR details.
- Narrow market.
- Engine down select soon.
Pontifications: March is a critical month for engine OEMs
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Even as Boeing put off a decision whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft until 2020, next month could be an important milestone—not only for the program but especially for the engine makers.
Unless delayed, engine down-select is supposed to be made in March.
This is a critical decision that could have huge implications to one of the engine OEMs—Rolls-Royce.
Pontifications: The 747 revolutionized air travel
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 11, 2019, © Leeham News: Few airplanes truly can be called revolutionary. Most are evolutionary.
The Boeing 747 was one of those that falls into the former category.
Just as the Boeing 707 revolutionized air travel, so did the 747.
The spaciousness and, after a period of engine difficulties, the economics put the 747 into a class by itself.
Countdown to NMA decision, Part 4: Time out
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Feb. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time for Airbus to launch the A321XLR.
Boeing last week announced a program launch for the New Midmarket Airplane won’t come until 2020 at the earliest.
Authority to Offer (ATO) may come as early as March or April. It had been widely expected a program launch would be announced at the Paris Air Show in June.
Airbus has been mulling the XLR launch since 2017. Inside information says a November 2017 launch was planned when all the distractions over the corruption scandals, coupled with key executive retirements, overwhelmed events.
Fifteen months later, Airbus dithers while Boeing vacillates.
Key customers shrug off Boeing’s 2020 NMA launch date
Jan. 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Key customers and suppliers shrugged off Boeing’s announcement today that a program launch for the prospective New 
Midmarket Aircraft won’t come until 2020.
If Boeing goes ahead with the NMA, a decision yet to be made, an announcement was widely expected at the Paris Air Show in June.
Authority to Offer (ATO) the airplane for sale may still come as early as March or April.
Pontificatons: From the sidelines at the AFJ Dublin conference
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Launch by Boeing of the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is pretty much a given, despite a still undecided business case, say people on the sidelines of the Airfinance Journal’s Dublin 2019 conference.
Here is a potpourri of information picked up at the conference, which is attended by about 2,000 people.
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Rolls-Royces sees NMA “addressable” market as 4,000-5,000, same as Boeing
Jan. 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce sees an “addressable” market for the Middle of the Market Aircraft at between 4,000 and 5,000 over 20 years—the same size Boeing sees.
But at the Airfinance Journal annual conference today in Dublin, an executive declined to be specific about the details of this assessment.
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Countdown to decision on Boeing’s NMA, Part 3: Engine selection
By Dan Catchpole
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Introduction
January 21 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing number crunchers are feverishly working through engine bids from Rolls-Royce, Pratt & Whitney and CFM International, the partnership of Safran and General Electric (GE), the three competitors vying to power Boeing’s New Midmarket Airplane (NMA). Boeing is expected to ask for a best and final offer by the end of January, with engine selection planned in February.
That gives Boeing enough time to get authority to offer from the board of directors, likely in March or April, and to launch the NMA (likely as the 797) at the Paris Air 
Show in June.
Boeing faces big challenges in closing the business case, though. The process has slogged on far longer than company leaders had expected. Even so, Boeing executives’ relentless optimism about the NMA business case stands in sharp contrast to the skepticism of many industry insiders. At least two of the engine makers, for example, think market demand is about half of Boeing’s public forecast.
Each of the three engine makers vying to get on the NMA have some significant liability. The industry insiders and analysts interviewed for this article say is the decision really comes down to Pratt and CFM. Given the pressures on NMA business case, many see a scaled-up CFM Leap as the front runner. It offers the least risk, even if it also has the least upside.
Summary:
- CFM: The LEAP has performed well since going into service, but GE’s financial troubles could weigh down its bid.
- Pratt & Whitney: PW’s GTF is a great fit for NMA requirements, but the engine maker has a full plate with the GTF on five new airplane programs.
- Rolls-Royce: The NMA would be an opportunity to launch Rolls’ UltraFan, but does Boeing want to bet on a completely new engine?
Countdown to Boeing’s decision on NMA, Part 2
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Now open to all readers.
Introduction
Jan. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: As the airline, lessor and aerospace industries await Boeing’s decision whether to launch its New Midrange Airplane (NMA, aka 797), as of last month the company still hadn’t closed the business case.
The aerospace analyst from JP Morgan met last month with Boeing’s top executives in Chicago. CEO Dennis Muilenburg and CFO Greg Smith told Seth Seifman that the business case must stand alone, on a program P&L basis, and not rely on aftermarket MRO services through Boeing Global Services. A Boeing spokesman last week reaffirmed the business case is still a work in progress.
As LNC has written many times, the business case involves the usual cost, pricing, production, supply chain and related issues.
But one overarching issue is how bid the market demand is. In large part, this drives everything else.
And market demand continues to be a matter of debate.
Summary
- Boeing says the demand is 4,000-5,000 airplanes over 20 years.
- Nearly everyone else surveyed by LNC sees the demand as closer to 2,300-2,500.
- Engine makers, Tier 1s, LNC, others see the demand as the lower number.
- Dissecting the difference.
2019 Outlook: leaving Airbus’ troubled year behind
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
December 19, 2018, © Leeham News.: Next year is a time when Airbus hopes to leave its troubled 2018 behind.
But 2018 was also when the company wanted to leave the troubles of 2017 behind it.
Not only did 2018 not improve. In a number of ways it turned worse.
Engineless A320neos at Toulouse Airport. Airbus hopes this is a thing of the past. Photo via Google images.
Turmoil in the management ranks brought back memories of the politically infested Airbus of 20 years ago. And there were other issues.
Production problems with the A320 continued. The A330neo was further delayed and the A380 order from Emirates to save the program took forever to materialize. The negotiations to fix the contracts for A400M couldn’t be brought to a close.
There were two bright lights in the year. The A350 was now out of its cabin supplier problems and delivering aircraft to plan. The other was the gift from Boeing’s suing Bombardier and its CSeries the year before. The top modern Bombardier CS100/300 became Airbus A220 on the first of July. Price tag; $1 for 50.01% of the program.
Summary
- Changes in executives are almost over.
- Pratt & Whitney’s engine delivery delays are caught up and CFM’s delays are diminishing.
- Production ramp ups are peaking (for now) and deliveries should be at a record rate next year.
- Airbus is waiting for Boeing to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft.