Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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A321neo plus a stretch too far for NMA: Avitas
Published 05 Mar 2018 by Airfinance Journal
Special to Leeham News.
March 8, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: A leading appraisal firm questions whether Airbus should respond to Boeing’s proposed new midsize aircraft (NMA) simply by enhancing its existing product line.
John Vitale. Source: Airfinance Journal
“There is a gap, a natural gap that needs to be filled, so I am not sure whether the A330 coming down…and the A321 coming up, fills the gap,” said John Vitale, president and chief executive officer of Avitas, speaking on a panel of appraisers at Airfinance Journal’s Korean Airfinance event, adding: “Airbus claims the A321 has all this range and that they can put in as many seats as they are talking about. Well, no you can’t in an equal comfort level.”
However, Vitale acknowledges a possible further stretch by Airbus of its A321neo, the A322, or enhanced versions, such as the ‘A321neo-plus’, or even an ‘A321neo-plus-plus’“pushes out the timing of the NMA aircraft.”
Retirement wave coming that will boost A330neo sales, says Airbus
March 6, 2018: Airbus is ramping up the messaging for the slow-selling A330neo, reiterating its view that a wave of retirements is coming from current A330 operators that will support new sales.
LNC first reported the message Dec. 6.
Jeff Knittel, the new president of Airbus Americas, reinforced this message yesterday at an industry conference.
Engine makers “inside the tent” on Boeing NMA, but airframer still ponders provider
March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The three engine makers, CFM/GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce, are the only suppliers that have been brought “inside the tent” by Boeing for the New Midrange Aircraft, a company executive said today.
Launching the program is critical on the engine companies, says Randy Tinseth, VP marketing for Boeing. Boeing hasn’t decided—officially—whether it will have a
Randy Tinseth. Photo via Google images.
single-engine or dual-engine source for the aircraft because the program hasn’t been launched.
Market intelligence tells LNC that Boeing wants two engine choices. Intel also indicates all three engine OEMs view the market demand as sharply smaller than Boeing’s publicly-stated forecast of 4,000 Middle of the Market sector airplanes over the next 20 years.
Embraer ponders new, smaller jet
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Introduction
March 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: News emerged last week that Embraer is considering a new jet family smaller than its current E2 line.
This would replace the E170, which Embraer decided not to upgrade to the E2. The E170 hasn’t sold well
in recent years, as the E175 became the preferred airplane in Embraer’s sub-90 seat market.
Embraer recognizes it needs a second family of airplanes to complement the E2. It’s been considering reentering the turboprop market, but demand is limited.
Restarting a sub-76-seat jet is not without risk, however.
Summary
- Turboprop market is small over 20 years.
- 60-99 seat market is a bit larger, but with competitors.
- Business cases for each are challenging.
Professionals see two types for Middle of the Market sector
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Introduction
March 1, 2018, © Leeham Co. Three industry professionals raised the question whether the Middle of the Market sector requires one aircraft type or two.
One raised the prospect Boeing might have to undertake concurrent aircraft development, as it did with the 757 and 767.
Richard Aboulafia, a consultant with The Teal Group, Ron Epstein, aerospace analyst for Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Kevin Michaels, president of AeroDynamic Advisory, made their remarks at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance last month in Lynnwood (WA).
Summary
- Low-cost Embraer engineers may play a role in Boeing’s development of the NMA.
- One consultant sees two distinct NMA aircraft.
- Boeing’s vertical integration of the supply chain may make sense only with two concurrent of consecutive airplane programs.
Airbus, plagued by “decapitation,” faces tough choices on NMA: consultant
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Introduction
Feb. 15, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Airbus’ plans to respond to Boeing’s prospective New Midrange Aircraft, aka 797, is a mystery to one of the industry’s leading aviation consultants.
Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group notes that Airbus’ research and development investment overtly disappears after 2018, with the introduction into service of the A350-1000 and the A319neo.
Aboulafia spoke at Day 2 of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) conference in Lynnwood (WA).
He’s long compared R&D spending between Airbus and Boeing, often praising the former for its level of investment and criticizing the latter for lagging.
Now, Airbus’ level of spending is a question mark while Boeing’s is a comfortable level compared with revenue, Aboulafia says.
NMA demand skeptics aren’t thinking outside the box, Boeing exec says
Feb. 13, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Skeptics who question Boeing’s market demand forecast of 4,000 airplanes for the New Midrange Aircraft aren’t thinking “outside the box,” says Randy Tinseth, VP Marketing.
Tinseth heads up the team that prepares Boeing’s annual Current Market Outlook for the next 20 years.
Boeing’s CMO forecasts a need for about 5,900 small twin-aisle aircraft (fewer than 300 seats but larger than single-aisle airplanes of more than 200 seats). About 4,000 of these are for the NMA.
Others, including Airbus, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and some key suppliers see the market as between 2,000 and 2,500. Leeham Co.’s own estimate is 2,300.
Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.
The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.
Let’s look at the NMA first.
Airbus, Boeing square off with A330neo, 787 in advance of NMA launch
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Introduction
Feb. 8, 2018, Leeham Co.: Boeing hasn’t launched the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) and may not until next year.
But the maneuvering to capture, solidify or preempt moves is already well underway by Airbus and Boeing.
Reuters synopsized this during its reporting at this week’s Singapore Air Show.
This is only the tip of the iceberg.
Summary
- Boeing 787 production rate increase to 14/mo next year is, in part, a head-‘em-off-at-the-pass maneuver to prevent customers from buying the Airbus A330neo.
- The 787-8 could see a new lease on life as interim airplane.
- A330-800 has steep uphill slog.
- Airbus, Boeing face off 787, A330neo.
2018 an important year for wide-bodied airplanes
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Introduction
Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This will be an important year for wide-body sales in commercial aviation.
It would be overstating to say 2018 will be a pivotal year for wide-body airplanes, but there should be some important developments.
Summary
- Boeing may—or may not—launch the twin-aisle New Midrange Aircraft this year.
- Sales of the 777X remain stalled.
- Sales of the A330neo remain stalled.
- Airbus must decide whether to boost the production rate of the A350.
