Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Russian-Chinese wide-body: background and outlook
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 21, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: The discussions around a joint Russian and Chinese development of a 250-300 seat wide-body has been going on for years.
The project got a more concrete form at President Putin’s visit to China in June. On the 25th of June visit, an inter-governmental agreement to develop and market the aircraft was signed.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
At the same time Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) agreed to establish a joint venture for the program.
What market is this aircraft trying to address and will it become a serious player in the wide-body market? Will it give the duopoly Airbus/Boeing something to worry about?
We will address these questions in a series of articles. Before going into the questions around the wide-body program, we will look at the players, UAC and COMAC. Are they up to the job of making a competitive wide-body aircraft?
Summary:
- Russia and China enter the wide-body project with widely different knowledge bases.
- China’s first airliner project, ARJ21, just received local certification after years of delays.
- Russia has produced over 10,000 airliners and has made two generations of wide-body aircraft in the size category.
- The latest wide-body aircraft, Ilyushin IL-96, is on the level of Airbus A340-300 from a technological basis.
Irkut MC-21-300 analysis, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August04, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the classification of the Irkut MC-21-300 done in terms of its size segment (it’s close to the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in size) and the key data of the aircraft analyzed, it’s now time to look at aircraft efficiency and payload-range performance.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 prototype on the final assembly line. Source: Irkut
We will do this with two cabin configurations for the aircraft. The first will be the nominal two class seating as proposed by the OEMs. For the second, we use a single class layout with 30-inch seat pitch.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has problems to compete with the re-engined 737 MAX 9 in terms of efficiency when using the standard two class cabins.
- When we switch to a single class high density layout, the fuel efficiency improves. The MC-21-300 exit concept is then more similar to the MAX 9, which affects efficiency in a positive way.
Irkut MC-21; we look at the MC-21-300, Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: After having found the nearest competitor to the Irkut MC-21-300 as the Boeing 737 MAX 9 in our first article, we now go deeper in the comparison of the two aircraft.
Figure 1. MC-21-300 at the roll out in June 2016. Source: Irkut
In the first article, we found that the aircraft have almost identical cabin dimensions. Now we will look at other areas like airframe dimensions, weights and data which dictate overall performance.
Summary:
- The MC-21 has cabin dimensions which are very close to the 737 MAX 9.
- The nominal two class seating by Irkut is lower than the MAX 9. We have assumed that this will increase during the lifetime of the MC-21.
- We also compare other data between the MC-21-300 and the MAX 9, such as weights, wetted areas and effective wingspans to see if these are similar as well. In the end these dictate the aircraft’s efficiency together with the engines.
Airbus Group 1H2016 results: Trouble in key programs
Updated with analyst reports.
By Bjorn Fehrm
27 July 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group presented its first half year results today, posting strong results in the face of delivery troubles with the A320neo and A350; and more charges on the ailing A400M. It has been a troubled start to 2016 with deliveries in key programs (A320, A350, A400M, Super Puma H225) being far behind targets. In total only the space segment is going well in Airbus Group at the moment.
The key commercial aircraft segment is still enjoying a vast backlog (6,700 aircraft) and sales which point to a book to bill of one for the year. But deliveries are not going well. Twenty A320neo “gliders” are just now getting their first engines and the A350 delivery problems are dragging on.
On top of that, the A400M program has hit new problems in the engine area where the propeller gearbox needs a redesign. An interim fix is needed to keep customers flying.
Airbus helicopter side has also hit trouble. The large Super Puma H225 helicopter suffered a fatal off-shore area crash in April and is still grounded as the investigation to what broke in the helicopter is taking time.
The financial results for the Airbus Group for the first half of 2016 (1H 2015) were revenue €28.8b (€28.9b) with net profit €1.8b (€1.5b). These figures includes €1.9b in write offs (A400m €1b, A350 €0.4, Currency €0.5b) and €2.1b in capital gain one offs (Launchers JV valuation €1.1b, Dassault shares €0.9b, Divestitures €0.1b). This means that one time effects kept the result up for 1H 2016 but these will not be there the next quarters should the troubles continue. Airbus Group maintains 2016 guidance for Revenue, EBIT and Free Cash Flow.
Here the details of the Airbus Group divisions results for first half 2016:
Boeing: Our 737 MAX product range will come to market as planned despite changes
By Bjorn Fehrm
Mike Delaney. Source: Boeing
July 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: Mike Delaney, Boeing’s Vice president and General manager for Aircraft development in the Commercial Airplane division, promises unchanged delivery times despite late changes to the company’s 737 MAX line-up.
Delaney went through the changes for the MAX program as part of a larger presentation, outlining the status for all ongoing aircraft developments within Boeing at the ongoing Farnborough Air Show.
The original 737 MAX 7 seen in the picture has just grown 12 seats. Source: Boeing
AirAsia: More and more congestion for Asian airports
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 13, 2016, ©. Leeham Co, Farnborough Air Show: AirAsia Group Chief Executive Tony Fernandes said yesterday that increased congestion the group has seen for several of the airports AirAsia operates to in the Asian market motivated an order for 100 Airbus A321neos.
“We are slot constrained on several of our destinations and when we can’t get any more slots from an airport, it’s better to take-off with the 50 more passengers that an A321neo offers rather than the 180 seat our standard A320 have,” said Fernandes.
AirAsia Airbus A321 as ordered yesterday at Farnborough Airshow. Source: Airbus
“The congestion has grown to the point where it will no longer be optimal for AirAsia to only operate with our standard-size aircraft, our fleet of 200 A320ceos with 180 seats, which will be gradually replaced in coming years by our order for 304 A320neos with the same seating,” Fernandes said. Read more
Boeing MAX program progresses well
Our coverage of the Farnborough Air Show begins today with an interview with Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. There will be a combination of paywall and freewall posts.
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Introduction
July 10, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Farnborough Air Show: The Boeing 737 MAX flight test
Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the Boeing 737 program. AIN Online photo via Google Images.
program is going well, with the company looking for ways to add improvements to the airplane even before it enters service next year.
Improvements, which include airplane and engine components, are intended to provide dispatch reliability close to the 99.98% of the 737 NG and extend on-wing time for the reliable CFM56 engine that has powered the 737 since introduction of the 737-300 in 1984, says Keith Leverkuhn, VP and GM of the 737 program.
Summary
- Many of the major tests are completed.
- Boeing, CFM see opportunities to insert components into the LEAP-1B during flight testing to extend on-wing time from entry-into-service.
- MAX 7X (or “7.5”) can be done within the “confines” of the current MAX program.
- A larger MAX isn’t ready to go yet.
Farnborough Air Show preview: expectations and possible surprises
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Introduction
July 4, 2016, © Leeham Co: The Farnborough Air Show begins next Monday and predictably, focus will be on orders.
With new airplanes from Airbus and Boeing past their development stages, conventional wisdom says there won’t be much new in this arena.
Don’t be so sure.
Bombardier is now on an upward trajectory, but don’t look for a big splash at #FIA16 (for those looking for this year’s Twitter handle). Embraer will have its E190-E2 at the show.
It’s Boeing’s 100th Anniversary and the company is rolling out the history for the show.
Summary
- No new products from Airbus.
- Boeing may have a surprise.
- Low number of orders anticipated.
Mid-Market airplane comes before A320, 737 replacement: Pratt & Whitney exec
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Introduction
June 16, 2016, © Leeham Co.: A middle of the market airplane will come before a replacement for the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, predicts Alan Epstein, vice
Alan Epstein, VP technology and environment, Pratt & Whitney.
president of technology and the environment for Pratt & Whitney.
“The challenge to the business of the narrow-bodies is the A320s and the 737s are so learned-out that Boeing and Airbus are so efficient at building those airplanes, that their inherent cost is so low, it’s extremely difficult to move into that market,” Epstein said. “Because the learning curve, you need incredibly deep pockets and you’re going to be negative for a long time.
“I think that also applies to Airbus and Boeing,” Epstein said, referring to the prospect of a new single-aisle aircraft.
Summary
- New single aisle airplane would be a “white elephant” for 10 years.
- Engines need to be at least 10% more efficient than today’s GTF and LEAP for a new single-aisle aircraft.
- Middle-Market airplane likely to come first.
Airbus aircraft programs in review
By Bjorn Fehrm in Hamburg
Introduction
May 31, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus went through a complete review of all their aircraft programs as part of their yearly briefing for media in Hamburg today. A lot was said regarding the status for the different programs by Airbus CEO Farbice Bregier, its COO customers John Leahy and Executive VP Strategy and Marketing Kiran Rao.
Figure 1. Most recent A350 delivery was to Cathay Pacific. source: Airbus.
The briefing was given against a backdrop of weak orders and deliveries for the first five months of the year. Both Bregier and Leahy said, “This is to be expected, it’s not sustainable that we have Book-to-Bill ratios (orders vs. deliveries) of over 1.5 or even close to two for many consecutive years. We have a backlog of 6,700 aircraft that customers expect us to deliver and they have little appetite to order new aircraft when they can earliest get them by 2021 at the earliest.
“We are now in a period of focus on deliveries and we can expect and be happy with a book to bill ratio of around one for the coming years. The extraordinary backlog also justifies our decision to increase production to 60 units per month for our A320 single aisle program.”
Here follows what was said for each of the programs.