Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: hot summer, hot engines
By Bjorn Fehrm
17 July 2015, ©. Leeham Co: It is summer in south of Europe and we have had over 30°C/86°F for weeks. It makes one realize the conditions where the engines have to work over their flat rating point in the Middle East.
Aircraft engines are a bit fidgety. They don’t like temperature although they are made to sustain that their hottest parts, the nozzle and first turbine after the combustor, gets scalded to 1700°C/3,092°F or more.
Go down to the very back end of the engine and we come to where the key engine parameter, EGT (Exhaust Gas Temperature), is measured. It determines a lot of things, among them the time the engine stays on wing. Things are typically 700°C/1,832°F cooler here and this is where a reliable temperature measurement probe can be placed. Based on its values, the total health of the engine’s core is determined. It is also a key input whether the engine shall be throttled back in a hot take-off like in the Middle East.
Pontifications: ExIm reform
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2015, © Leeham Co. The US ExIm Bank authorization expired last week. As readers know, I’m a strong advocate of renewal of the authorization. Boeing, and other companies, hope reauthorization can be achieved this month.
I won’t restate the reasons I think ExIm should be reauthorized, nor my utter disdain for the right-wing Republicans and Tea Party types who don’t get that the Bank helps Boeing sell airplanes and sustain or create jobs. I’ve written about this many times, and the competitive disadvantage Boeing will have vs Airbus, whose European Credit Agencies will take full advantage of this.
But there are some points on the “other side” to revisit.
LEAP, the best of 1,000 investigated alternatives.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 23, 2015, © Leeham Co. CFM International went through 1,000 iterations before settling on the final design for the LEAP engines that will power the Airbus A320neo, the Boeing 737 MAX and the COMAC C919.
In an interview with us at the Paris Air Show, CFM LEAP program manager Gareth Richards explained the macro process of the development of LEAP, CFM’s sequel to CFM56. This will be the largest turbofan engine program in the history of civil aviation and the follow on to the world’s most-sold turbofan, the CFM56.
Richards focused on how an engine like LEAP gets designed and what the trades are that a single aisle, short haul engine has compared to long haul engines.
LEAP is sharing the A320neo platform with Pratt & Whitney’s GTF but is sole engine on the 737 MAX and the C919. This will lead to engine production rates five years into the program of 1800 engines which is higher than the present rate of CFM56 deliveries.
Dependant on rate increases by Airbus and Boeing, this can increase beyond 2,000 engines per year after the initial ramp. It would make LEAP the largest civil turbofan program whichever way one counts: engines, installed thrust or revenue.
Summary:
- Research of optimal engine cycle was extensive, with more than 1,000 alternatives investigated before settling on the final LEAP cycle.
- The production ramp is the fastest ever, from 30 engines 2015 to 1,700 by 2019.
- While CFM does not want to ramp faster than planned, final production rate is flexible.
- The large volume of sold engines, the fast production ramp and the short-haul cycle makes for a conservative approach to performance.
- We discuss with Richards how such a program is managed and how you make sure you can deliver on promises.
Bjorn’s Corner: What Paris Air Show taught us about East and West.
By Bjorn Fehrm
25 June 2015, © Leeham Co: With a few days in the office one can look back at Paris Air Show with a bit of perspective. So what are the impressions?
It was surprising how many orders Airbus and Boeing landed. Both had played down the expectations, telling that it will be a decent show but nothing close to record. Yet both were booking orders or commitments which were better than expected going into the PAS. Read more
Embraer CEO talks about risks
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Introduction
Embraer CEO Paulo Cesar Silva. Photo: AINOnline via Google Images.
June 22, 2015, Paris Air Show, © Leeham Co. Embraer has emerged as the#3 commercial aircraft producer over the years, behind Airbus and Boeing and overtaking Bombardier, by approaching risks carefully and conservatively. No other decision in recent years reflects this approach than what to do when events outside its control forced officials to decide what to do about the future of the E-Jet.
Bombardier launched the CSeries with a new design and a new engine. The larger of two models, the CS300, was a direct challenge to Airbus and Boeing and their smallest aircraft. Airbus responded with the New Engine Option family, forcing Boeing to react with the re-engined 737, the MAX.
With the smallest CSeries, the CS100, a competitor to the largest EJets, the E190 and E195, Embarer had to do something. The question was what.
Embraer could launch an entirely new, larger aircraft, following the Bombardier example. It could do a “simple” re-engine of the EJet. Or it could do something else.
Officials chose to stay away from confronting Airbus and Boeing with a CS-300-sized EJet. Instead, they drew the line at 133 seats in highest density, adding 12 seats to the E-195. The Pratt & Whitney GTF was chosen to power a fundamentally new airplane, one with new wings, new systems, aerodynamic upgrades and other improvements.
We met with CEO Paulo Cesar de Souza e Silva at the Paris Air Show to talk about EMB’s approach to global risk factors.
Summary
- Oil prices, over-ordering and over-expansion by airlines factor into Embraer’s market assessments.
- Airline focus on market share rather than profitability is bad decision-making.
- Asia is Embraer’s best opportunities today.
Engine Alliance undertakes PIPs, but not to level Emirates wants
June 17, 2015, Paris Air Show, c. Leeham Co. Engine Alliance, one of the two power plant suppliers for the Airbus A380, said today that it is undertaking Performance Improvement Package (PIP) upgrades to the GP7200 to lower maintenance and operating costs and to reduce fuel burn.
This contrasts with blunt remarks from Tim Clark, president and COO of Emirates Airlines (EK), that EA has “flat lined” and isn’t undertaking PIPs. Emirates is by far the largest operator of EA-powered A380s but recently ordered the competing Rolls-Royce Trent 900s for EK’s 50 A380s ordered late last year. Clark kept engine selection open at the time.
Dean Athans, Engine Alliance president, told LNC today that the A380 is a low-volume airplane and the
David Athans, president of Engine Alliance
business case for investing in the GP7200 to the level Clark want’s isn’t there.
“Tim is acting in the best interests of Emirates Airline, and he wants to most and the best of GP that he can get,” Athans said in an interview. “I’d do the same thing if I was in his place. He wants a brand new engine. He wants a large GTF or GE9X version for this A380s. I would, too. The position I’m in, looking at the volume and the business case for the A380, it doesn’t enable that level of investment.”
At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Assn. last week in Miami Beach (FL), Clark told LNC that EA wasn’t willing to invest in the PIPs Clark wanted, and RR is.
Bombardier ‘transformation initiative’ goes after costs across the enterprise, supply chain
June 8, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Bombardier suppliers, already squeezed by Airbus and Boeing to cut costs and prices,
Alain Bellemare, CEO of Bombardier.
will soon face a new effort from Bombardier to do the same.
The new chief executive officer, Alain Bellemare, last week announced a “transformation initiative,” of which going to the supply chain is but one part for cut costs across the enterprise.
Bellemare, who was named CEO in February, knows something about cost cutting. He was an executive at Pratt & Whitney, a unit of United Technologies, before coming to BBD, and has been on the giving and receiving end of demands to cut costs.
Bellemare was named with the charge to restructure Bombardier, after billions of dollars in losses, cost over-runs and delays in corporate and commercial aircraft programs, the highest profile of which is the CSeries. The CSeries is the bet-the-company leap into mainline jet aircraft which, at the lower end, compete directly with Airbus and Boeing.
In an interview with Bellemare at the International Air Transport Assn. Annual General Meeting Monday in Miami, Bellemare covered a wide range of subject about how BBD will be remade.
A350 replacing A340-300 / 777-200ER, still on with lower fuel prices?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 7, 2015, c. Leeham Co. We have just rounded off a series of articles around how A350 is to fly, its systems approach and lastly the conversion of Finnair’s A340/A330 pilots to A350. Finnair will replace the airlines A340-300 with the A350-900.
A question that comes up is how much more efficient is the A350 that is delivered to these airlines, and does the investment still make sense with today’s lower fuel prices? To get an answer we took the two customers that will get their A350 within the next months, Vietnam Airlines and Finnair, and we compared A350-900 to the aircraft that it will replace in their fleets, Boeing 777-200ER for Vietnam Air and Airbus A340-300 for Finnair.
We used our proprietary model to fly these aircraft over some typical routes for the airline’s, for Vietnam Airlines Saigon-London and for Finnair Helsinki-Shanghai.
Summary:
- The present aircraft are over 20% less efficient than A350 on these routes.
- For the A340 it is the engines which are the culprit, for the 777-200ER the wing.
- With a realistic fuel price for the planning period the differences in efficiency are large enough to motivate the switch.