BBD management: Bombardier’s management gets a scathing review following last week’s announcement that it will “pause” the LearJet 85 program and it will miss free cash flow guidance. This follows the unexpected resignation of Ray Jones, the head of sales, and a 10-year veteran of the company. Aviation Week has a separate article refuting the “poor business climate” excuse BBD gave for business jets.
Our own conversations paint a picture of a management structure that has inhibited CSeries sales from the start.
AirAsia 8501: Preliminary analysis of the AirAsia flight 8501 Cockpit Voice Recorder indicates no sign of terrorism or pilot suicide, according to several press reports. More likely is a high altitude stall or aircraft upset, the reports say.
In our conversations with a former NTSB crash investigator, he believes the flight spiraled down, hit the water and broke up upon impact.
MH370 Update: Flight Global has a good piece updating the search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
Holy cow: Readers know we follow the Seattle Seahawks closely. Sunday’s game against the Green Bay Packers was a heart-stopper. Seattle trailed for 57 minutes of the 60 minute game and then exploded to come from a 19-7 deficit to win 28-22 in Overtime. What a thriller. Now the Seahawks will meet the New England Patriots in Arizona February 1 for the Super Bowl. The Pats crushed the Indianapolis Colts Sunday.
We’re negotiating our bet with an exec at Pratt & Whitney this week….
Unfortunately, Boeing won’t be repeating its 747-8F-painted Seahawks airplane this year, according to the USA Today. What a shame.
Posted on January 19, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
By Bjorn Fehrm
Toulouse 13 Jan 2015: Airbus today held their annual press conference where they among other things revealed their final numbers for orders and deliveries. The press conference was hosted by Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier accompanied by COO Customers John Leahy, new COO Tom Williams and new Head of Programs Didier Evrard.
Airbus in 2014
Bregier started with pointing out that 2014 was a very eventful year for Airbus. Airbus did their customary end of year sprint and passed Boeing for net orders with 24 aircraft netting 1456 commands, Figure 1.
On the delivery side Boeing is ahead with 723 deliveries versus Airbus 629, Figure 2.
Further Airbus certified the A350 and delivered the first aircraft to its launch customer, Qatar Airways. It also launched the A330neo and got 120 orders during the year. Finally they flew the A320neo first prototype.
Posted on January 13, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 12, 2015: One of the subjects which is sure to come up on Airbus annual press conference on Tuesday the 13th in Toulouse will be when and how Airbus will re-engine the A380.
Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier vowed during the Airbus Group Global Investors Day last month that an A380neo is coming.
There is much speculation around this subject as the business case of re-engineering an aircraft that is selling at such low numbers is difficult to get to close. The business case is difficult to make work for Airbus (such a project will cost in the order of $2 billion) but it will be equally hard for the engine manufacturers to offer engines that have enough efficiency gain to make the overall project feasible from an efficiency improvement perspective.
Summary
Posted on January 12, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 8, 2015: Engines on the aging fleet of Boeing 757s are a key reason operating costs of this rather unique airplane are between 20% and 30% more than a Boeing 737-9 or an Airbus A321neo.
“The thing to worry about most for the 757 engines is the cost to overhaul,” says an industry official who trades in 757s. “The cost of producing life limited parts is crippling the marketplace.”
Total costs and the direct operating costs are being directly affect by the engine costs, the person says, who doesn’t want to be identified because of the sensitivity of the topic.
Posted on January 8, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
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Introduction
Dec. 28, 2014: Two challenges to the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing in the 150-220 seat single-aisle sector move forward in development in 2015, but neither is in a position to be a threat for the balance of this decade, nor even in the next.
Both challenges, the COMAC C919 from China, and the Irkut MC-21 from Russia, will for various reasons fall short of the Airbus A320/321 and Boeing 737-8/9 and plans to design the next generation new single-aisle airplane.
Summary
Here’s a visualization of events to look for in commercial aviation in 2015.
Posted on December 26, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Mitsubishi, Paris Air Show, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
767-2C, A320NEO, A350-1000, A350-900, A380neo, air force tanker, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GTF, KC-46A, LEAP, MC-21, Mitsubishi, MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Rolls-Royce, Trent XWB
The new chief executive officer of United Technologies Corp., Gregory Hayes, threw cold water on hopes and dreams of Pratt & Whitney, a subsidiary, that the successful small- and medium-sized Geared Turbo Fan will grow into the wide-body market.
Aviation Week just published an article in which all three engine OEMs were reported to be looking at a 40,000 lb engine that would be needed to power a replacement in the category of the Boeing 757 and small 767. Hayes did not specifically rule out a 40,000 lb engine, leaving PW’s potential to compete for this business unclear.
Hayes has been CEO for two weeks. He was previously CFO. He made his remarks in a UTC investors event last night. The Hartford Courant has this report.
Hayes’ remarks were in response to a question from an analyst about research and development expenses. Here is his reply, from a transcript of the event:
Posted on December 12, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 757, 757 replacement, 767, 767 replacement, A320NEO, Alain M. Bellemare, Bombardier, C919, CFM, Comac, CSeries, E-Jet E2, Embraer, GE Aviation, Gregory Hayes, GTF, Irkut, MC-21, Mitsubishi, MRJ, Pratt & Whitney, United Technologies
Nov. 30, 2014: MTU Investors Day: MTU is a major participant in engine development and supplies, participating on the GEnx, GTF and GEnx program. It’s also a member of the joint venture in International Aero Engines and it’s a major player in the aftermarket Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector, providing a serious competitive alternative to the aftermarket contracts offered by the engine OEMs. Its held an investors day conference Nov. 25. Highlights included:
Posted on November 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
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Now open to all Readers.
Introduction
Boeing is looking at a number of scenarios for its New Airplane Study (NAS) that would replace the 757 and 737, have ranges from 4,000nm-5,000nm, and carry as few passengers as 130 or as many as 240.
To cover this broad range of demands could require reverting back to the 1980s when Boeing simultaneously developed two airplanes serving very different missions, the 757 and 767, that shared cockpits and some other common elements.
Boeing faces some hard decisions in the coming years, as Airbus outflanks Boeing in the single-aisle sector with the A320neo family and its latest offering, the A321neoLR. Our analysis and sales figures show the 737 MAX falling further and further behind in market share as MAX 9 lags vis-à-vis the A321neo.
We spoke with Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing, during a break at a conference last week organized by the British American Business Council-Pacific Northwest, and covered this and a number of other topics.
Summary
Posted on November 2, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737 MAX, 737-9, 757, 757-200, 757-300, 767, 787, A320NEO, A321NEO, A321neoLR, Airbus, BABC-PNW, BACB, Boeing, British American Business Council, CFM, GE Aviation, GE9X, GTF, Kourosh Hadi, LEAP, NAS, New Airplane Study, New Light Twin, New Single Aisle, NLT, NSA, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Ultra Fan
Boeing 737 MAX 8 as a long and thin aircraft and how it fares in general versus Airbus A320neo.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Over the last weeks we have looked at Boeing’s 757 replacement possibilities on its long and thin network niche, including a ground breaking launch interview for the A321neoLR with Airbus Head of Strategy and Marketing, Kiran Rao. In the series we have seen that the A321neo has the potential to replace the 757-200 on long and thin international routes. Boeing’s equivalent single aisle entry, 737 MAX 9, has problems to extend its range over 3,600nm. It is too limited in the weight increase necessary to cover the longer range.
Many have asked how the less- restricted Boeing 737 MAX 8 would fare, suitably equipped with the necessary extra tanks. This is the subject of this week’s sequel on the theme long and thin. At the same time we look at Airbus entry in this segment, the A320neo, to see how it stacks up to the 737 MAX 8, both in their normal 1,000 to 2,000nm operation and then also in a long and thin scenario.
Let’s first summarize what we found so far in our four articles around the Boeing 757 and its alternatives:
Summary
Figure 1. Boeing 737 MAX 8 overlaid with Airbus A320neo. Source: Leeham Co.
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Posted on November 9, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce
737, 737 MAX, 737NG, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, CFM, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce