Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Will increasing fuel prices revitalize new aircraft sales?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
August 2, 2018, © Leeham News.: As outlined in our Monday article the changing fuel price is affecting fleet plans. With increasing cost of fuel one would expect the airlines to order more new fuel-efficient aircraft.
The reaction from some US carriers has been the opposite, deferral of deliveries of new aircraft. While this might be a short-term reaction, long-term rising fuel prices will favor new, fuel-efficient aircraft. The fuel price level when this happens is today’s subject.
Summary:
- There are more factors than fuel and capital costs which influence buy new or keep old fleet, but the fuel and capital costs are the key variables.
- We also explore if there is a difference in crossover fuel price between Narrowbody or Widebody fleets.
The Southeast ramps up to challenge Washington State in aerospace
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Introduction
July 26, 2018, © Leeham News: The US Southeast continues its aggressive expansion in aerospace.
Washington State plots to win the assembly site for the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft and expand its space footprint.
In a way, it’s a defensive holding game for Washington, which faces competition from more than a half dozen states where the cost of doing business is cheaper and the regulatory environment is friendlier to business.
Summary
- Washington State doesn’t “get it,” say some suppliers and a trade group.
- Gearing up for NMA competition.
- Expanding the Southeast aerospace footprint.
First mover or not, that is the question: A321XLR vs NMA
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Introduction
July 23, 2018, © Leeham News: First mover or not first mover, that is the question.
In a pre-Farnborough Air Show interview with another publication, Airbus Group CEO Tom Enders said Airbus had the advantage of being the “first mover” by acquiring majority control of the Bombardier C Series program.
But when it comes to responding to the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Airplane (NMA, or 797), Airbus officials say they are content to wait and watch, willing to let Boeing make the first move.
At the same time, Airbus is proceeding with studies to further extend the range of the A321neo, in the form of the A321XLR. The airplane would have a range of 4,500nm, up from 4,100nm, according to information widely leaked at the air show.
Summary
- Airbus looks to squeeze Boeing from the bottom of the NMA market with A321neo improvements.
- Boeing sales chief dismisses A321XLR as a sub-set of a sub-set.
- But others see the basic A321 design as more flexible than the 737 MAX.
- Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury
Related stories
Airbus’ jetBlue A220 deal, first analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
July 12, 2018, © Leeham News: The Airbus A220 won its first battle against Embraer’s E2 E-Jets, winning the order to replace 60 Embraer E190s at jetBlue. The airline held a telephone conference yesterday, presenting its choice of the A220 and explaining why it chose the A220.
JetBlue said in the call it was a close race. We analyze how close.
Summary:
- JetBlue showed the advantages the A220-300 would have against the incumbent E190. The expected improvement in costs of 25%-30% were identified.
- The airline wouldn’t be drawn on the difference between the A220-300 and Embraer’s E195-E2, the real competitor. Our performance model shows it’s a close race.
Boeing, Embraer tie-up key to NMA development
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Introduction
July 9, 2018, © Leeham News: When Boeing and Embraer announced last week the Memorandum of Understanding to form a joint venture between Boeing and 
Embraer Commercial Airplanes, writers and analysts jumped on the bandwagon that LNC pointed out as far back as last year.
Summary
This is:
- A strategic play;
- About Embraer’s engineers and low-cost production in Brazil;
- About tapping Embraer’s resources for development of the potential Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft; and
- About EMB’s potential lead in developing a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737, among other things.
Additionally, a Boeing partisan sees new trade complaint against C Series.
Related stories:
The changes to the A350-900ULR
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 28, 2017, © Leeham News: Airbus has published more information about the A350-900ULR Singapore Airlines will get after the summer.
The new A350-900 Airport Planning Guide from Airbus shows the A350-900ULR has a deactivated forward Cargo compartment. It’s good for the performance of the aircraft. We explain why.
Summary:
- For a ULR aircraft, the carry of cargo is an exception.
- The standard A350-900 has cargo bays with 36 LD3 positions. On the A350-900ULR only a few would be used.
- Airbus, therefore, decided to run with only one cargo hold, by it gaining performance on the ULR missions.
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
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Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
US start-up has a lot of Moxy
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Introduction
June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.
Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.
The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.
Summary
- Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
- Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
- Initial funding of $100m raised.
- Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
- Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.
VLA era is over; are 777X, A350-1000 too large?
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Introduction
June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: The era of the Very Large Aircraft appears over.
The Boeing 747 passenger airliner, while nominally still offered for sale, is in reality dead.
The Airbus A380 limps along in what may prove to be a vain hope that airport congestion will spur sales next decade.
The next level down, however, doesn’t appear very strong.
Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 stalled at 200 or less for years.
Sales of the Boeing 777X likewise stalled following program launch in 2013-2014. Although the 777X has twice as many orders as the A350-1000, fully 72% of them come from three customers, one of which is in serious financial trouble and may cancel or defer some or all its orders.
Summary
- Orders for the largest Large Twin-Aisle aircraft lag the Small and Medium Twin-Aisles.
- Big 3 in the Middle East are major customers for the 777X, A350-1000. Iran Air also buyer of -1000.
- While Big Twin languishes, small- and medium-twins remain in demand.