Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
Huge win for Boeing in union vote
Feb. 15, 2017, (c) Leeham Co.: It wasn’t even close: 74% percent of the Boeing hourly touch-labor workers at the 787 plant in North Charleston (SC) voted against the International Association of Machinists to represent them.
It’s a humiliating defeat for the IAM that will have negative repercussions for IAM 751 in the Seattle-Everett (WA) area.
Boeing will be able to continue to hold non-union Charleston over Seattle’s IAM when it comes time to select the site for the New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) for the Middle of the Market sector. LNC calls this the 7M7.
Program launch for the NMA is widely expected next year. Site selection could come next year or in 2019.
IAM loses union vote at Boeing SC
Update: IAM got thumped: 75% to 25% for unionization, 2,097 to 731. Kawabunga!
Feb. 15, 2017: The International Association of Machinists lost its effort to unionize Boeing’s Charleston (SC) 787 plant.
The result was announced about 8:30pm EST by the IAM, but no vote or percentage totals were included.
LNC infers that the absence of the vote totals means the IAM lost by a wide margin.
More to come….
The press release is below.
Long, bitter history precedes union vote at Boeing Charleston today
Feb. 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s touch-labor workers at its 787 assembly plant in North Charleston (SC) will vote today on whether to become represented by the International Association of Machinists (IAM).
It’s a vote with huge stakes for both sides.
Boeing vociferously opposes a Yes vote. The IAM, which represented workers on the property when it was owned by Vought before Boeing purchased the plant, was voted out by the workers, by then employed by Boeing, just days ahead of Boeing selecting Charleston for the second 787 assembly line. It is widely believed the vote throwing out the IAM was the capper in Boeing’s decision to locate line 2 in Charleston.
The IAM has been itching ever since to regain representation of the workers here. A previous vote was scrubbed when it became clear, via nose-counting, it would fail.
Analyst puts Sell on Boeing stock in unusally bearish report
Feb. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In an extraordinarily bearish research note, boutique Buckingham Research Group (BRG) downgraded Boeing stock to Underperform (Sell) from Neutral (Hold) today.
BRG, which agrees with other aerospace analysts that Boeing stock is priced on free cash flow, sees FCF falling beginning next year. Buckingham predicts 737 production rates—which Boeing wants to boost to 57/mo to support FCF—will be short-lived.
Buckingham sees 777 Classic delivery rates dropping from Boeing’s target of 3.5/mo to “bottom out” at 2/mo.
Weak orders for the 787 means Boeing won’t increase production rates for the 787 from 12/mo to 14/mo. BRG predicts that in 2019 Boeing will announce a rate reduction from the current 12.mo to 7/mo on one production line, and this line will be only in Charleston (SC).
Boeing VP-Marketing Randy Tinseth speaks tomorrow at the annual Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference in Lynnwood (WA). Tinseth is always the eternal optimist in his presentations. We’ll see if he addresses anything in BRG’s bearish report.
Pontifications: Alaska’s A321neo test drive
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It was subtle, but it was there: Alaska Airlines will take the Airbus A321neo for a test drive.
This will happen via its new sibling, Virgin America, which has 10 A321neos on order. VA is an exclusive A320 operator. Alaska flies only Boeing
737s. The acquisition of VA by Alaska immediately raised questions whether Alaska will retain the Airbus fleet and orders or phase them out in favor of the 737.
Of more interest to partisans than to me, the question over the future of the Virgin America brand also became a top question.
Deferrals at historic low, say Boeing CEO
Dennis Muilenburg, Boeing CEO.
Feb. 9, 2017: Requests for order deferrals are at an historic low but there are still challenges in bridging the production gap between the 777 Classic and 777X, Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said during a Cowen & Co. presentation today.
Deferral requests are at only 2% of the backlog of nearly 6,000 airplanes, compared with an historic rate of about 6%, Muilenburg said.
“There are no particular regional trends,” he said during a phone-in appearance; weather prevented Muilenburg from flying in for the event. “Deferrals remain very low. We have skyline flexibility to move things around.”
At the same time, Muilenburg acknowledged Boeing still faces a challenge of filling the bridge between the 777 Classic and 777X, even at the reduced production rates in place. The rate is now 7/mo, down from 8.3/mo. It goes to 5/mo in August. Actual delivery rate beginning next year through 2019 is 3.5/mo as production of the 777X is feathered in.
Muilenburg identified filling the bridge as a “risk.”
“We still have work to do to fill out the bridge,” he said. The line is virtually sold out this year, but only 90% sold out at the reduce rate next year and in 2019.
Look for more KC-46A tanker orders soon
Feb. 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing last month received a $2.1bn order for 15 more KC-46A tankers from the US Air Force, bringing the total so far to 34.
Look for more orders in the coming months.
Boeing has Letters of Intent for 152 more with delivery dates beginning in 2018, according to the Ascend data base.
Extending the line
The aerial refueling tankers are based on the 767-200ER, which is no longer offered by Boeing in a passenger version.
Boeing expects 400 sales of the tanker over the life of the program. Using the current LOIs as a base, the USAF commitment extends to 2028. At the current production schedule planned, the 767 line could be active until 2042.
But the USAF isn’t the only customer for the 767.
Trans-Atlantic for $75, does it work?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
February 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Norwegian will start trans-Atlantic flying between Edinburgh and New England for $75 one-way in late spring when it gets its Boeing 737 MAX 8.
The introductory price will be $69. CEO Bjorn Kjos says the operating costs of the 737 MAX 8, “which is very low,” will make this level of ticket pricing possible.
We were the first to point out (November 2014 in this article) the re-engined MAX 8 would be a trans-Atlantic enabler at a new cost level. We didn’t put the passenger ticket at $75 at the time. Time to check if it’s possible to make money with such fare prices.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to generate the operating costs between Scotland and New England/upstate New York.
- We then compare the total costs for the trip versus revenue. What is the average ticket price to break even?
- We use an aggressive cabin, the same as for the European traffic.
- Is it OK to travel at that comfort level for the seven hours over the Atlantic?
- For $75, you bet it is.
Norwegian, from regional to mainline competitor
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 8, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: When SAS (Scandinavian Airlines Systems) canceled Norwegian Air Shuttle’s (NAS) contract to feed its Norwegian network 2002, it had no idea the former feeder would almost run it out of business 10 years later.
The cancellation forced NAS to change tack. Subcontracting as a feeder to a mainline was no longer possible; SAS was the only mainline in Norway after buying Braathens (NAS’ original contractor). NAS decided to become a Low Cost Carrier (LCC).
Ten years later, Norwegian (as we call NAS from now) had taken over a large part of SAS’ European business. SAS was fighting for its life. Another five years and Norwegian’s expansion on LCC long-haul is forcing IAG (BA, IBERIA, Air Lingus, Vueling), Air France-KLM and Lufthansa to react.
How strong a threat to other LCCs and the majors’ long haul operation is Norwegian? We will answer the questions in a series of future articles. We start with Norwegian’s roots and its development til now. Read more
Assessing the MC-21 future
Subscription Required
Introduction
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Summary
Read more
Leave a Comment
Posted on February 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, United Aircraft
737, A320, Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, C919, C929, Irkut, MC-21