Leeham News and Analysis
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A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
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Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.
Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.
The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.
But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.
Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.
The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
Mitsubishi lands MOU for up to 100 SpaceJets from USA’s Mesa Air
Sept. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) won a large commitment for up to 100 of its new M100 SpaceJet from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines.
The Memorandum of Understanding was announced today at the Regional Airline Assn. annual US conference. The MOU is for 50 firm orders and purchase rights for 50 more. Mesa is a new MITAC customer. Deliveries begin in 2024. Entry into service is planned for 2023.
The M100 is compliant with the US pilot contract Scope Clauses, which (among other things) limit the weight of the airplane and seating configuration.
A Letter of Intent for 15 M100s was announced at the Paris Air Show. This customer has yet to be identified.
Read more
Pontifications: Catching up on Odds and Ends-Alaska’s Airbus fleet, first E195-E2 delivery, Boeing’s MAX rebranding question
- Take our Boeing 737 MAX rebranding poll at the end of this post.
Sept. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time to catch up on Odds and Ends.
Alaska Airlines
In its second quarter earnings call and 10Q Securities and Exchange Filing, Alaska Airlines said it was returning one Airbus A319 and two A320s off lease this year and next.
By Scott Hamilton
These airplanes are from its Virgin America acquisition, which introduced the Airbus family into the all-Boeing Alaska mainline operations.
Alaska officials have said several times they are evaluating whether to phase out all Airbuses and return to an all-Boeing fleet, or keep the Airbuses and operate a mixed fleet indefinitely.
I wondered if this was the start of the phase out.
“We are planning to return 1 A319 this year and 2 A320s next year at normal lease expiration,” Brandon Pederson, EVP and CFO of the company, wrote LNA. “This is not part of a broader fleet decision, nor a phase out of the smaller Airbus aircraft. Leases on the remaining 50 A319/A320 aircraft in the fleet have varying maturities through 2025.”
Pontifications: Embraer sees E175-E2 orders this year outside US
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 26, 2019, © Leeham News: My column July 22 entitled Embraer counts on Boeing heft for E2 sales boost raised a few hackles in Sao Jose dos Campos, headquarters of Embraer.
It wasn’t meant to. Rather, slow sales of the E-Jet E2 this year caught the attention of more than a few in the market, so I thought putting some perspective on the issue was worthwhile.
After all, sales of the Bombardier C Series were slow between the announcement of selling 50.01% of the program and consummation of the deal nearly a year later.
Such is the case with E2 sales pending consummation of the Boeing-Embraer joint venture, which has a target date of closing by year end, I wrote.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 16, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we this week discuss the Flight Control System’s authority to execute maneuvers by its different parts and why the authority of these parts is a fundamental parameter when designing the system.
Figure 1. Embraer Phenom 300’s Yaw damper rudder. Source: Embraer.
Embraer presents second quarter 2019 results.
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: Embraer announced its 2Q2019 results today. The company delivered a slightly better quarter than expectations after a disappointing first quarter.
The Commercial Aircraft division and its E175 is still paying the company bills, as the start of the E2 program with E190-E2 is slow, with deliveries at one per quarter so far this year.
Pontifications: MAX market share holding steady, so far
By Scott Hamilton
July 29, 2019, Leeham News: Despite threats and fears of cancellations for the Boeing 737 MAX following two fatal accidents of virtually brand new -8 MAXes, few order cancellations directly attributable to the crashes have occurred.
So far, there isn’t a discernible shift to Airbus, either, data shows.
Pontifications: Embraer counts on Boeing heft for E2 sales boost
By Scott Hamilton
July 22, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer still appears to be in a bit of a holding pattern following the Paris Air Show in which it announced orders and commitments for only 76 EJets. Two additional orders announced at the show were previously under the Unidentified category.
This seems to be following a pattern set with the Bombardier C Series, in which sales were slow while the market waited for the deal to close in which Airbus acquired 50.01% of the C Series program.
14 new airplanes and derivatives see EIS through 2027
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July 15, 2019, © Leeham News: There are 14 new and derivative aircraft scheduled for entry into service (EIS) through 2027. This rises to 16 if Boeing launches the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA).
But there are plenty of uncertainties around precise EIS hanging over some of these.
LNA sees entry into service for the Boeing 777X slipping to the first quarter of 2021.
LNA sees the Boeing 777X EIS slipping into early 2021. China’s C919 is now slated for a 2021 EIS, but development has been tricky and delays have been common. Russia’s MC-21 flight testing has been slow and international sanctions hang over this aircraft.
Mitsubishi’s MRJ90, now called the M90, is slated to enter service next year. It, too, has been plagued by delays. The redesigned MRJ70, the M100, moves from a 2021 EIS to a planned 2023 EIS—but given the MRJ90’s history of delays, the company has to persuade the industry no more slippages are likely.
Here is a rundown by year and aircraft of the EIS dates.