Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.
The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.
Let’s look at the NMA first.
Airbus, Boeing square off with A330neo, 787 in advance of NMA launch
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Introduction
Feb. 8, 2018, Leeham Co.: Boeing hasn’t launched the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, aka 797) and may not until next year.
But the maneuvering to capture, solidify or preempt moves is already well underway by Airbus and Boeing.
Reuters synopsized this during its reporting at this week’s Singapore Air Show.
This is only the tip of the iceberg.
Summary
- Boeing 787 production rate increase to 14/mo next year is, in part, a head-‘em-off-at-the-pass maneuver to prevent customers from buying the Airbus A330neo.
- The 787-8 could see a new lease on life as interim airplane.
- A330-800 has steep uphill slog.
- Airbus, Boeing face off 787, A330neo.
2018 an important year for wide-bodied airplanes
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Introduction
Feb. 5, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This will be an important year for wide-body sales in commercial aviation.
It would be overstating to say 2018 will be a pivotal year for wide-body airplanes, but there should be some important developments.
Summary
- Boeing may—or may not—launch the twin-aisle New Midrange Aircraft this year.
- Sales of the 777X remain stalled.
- Sales of the A330neo remain stalled.
- Airbus must decide whether to boost the production rate of the A350.
Boeing’s special needs in the next decade may be solved by Embraer
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Introduction
Jan. 8, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Key factors may play into the prospective business venture, however it’s defined, between Boeing and Embraer that have gotten little
notice.
Boeing’s need for engineering talent from Embraer has been touched on by many media, including LNC. But a detailed analysis hasn’t been forthcoming, that we’ve seen.
Not discussed yet is the fact that new airplane programs at Boeing and Embraer wind down in 2021-22, leaving both companies in danger of facing the next decade without new products at a time when competition will be emerging.
The lack of new airplane programs endangers the engineering talent pool. For Boeing, this is already going to be critical as more than 5,500 engineers and technicians reach age 65 in the next 10 years.
Boeing’s New Midmarket Airplane, if launched, will address part of the company’s new product requirement after 2020. On the other hand, Embraer has no new product, although officials have discussed potentially launching a turboprop program.
Summary
- Boeing’s 787 and 737 programs wind down this year and in 2020.
- Embraer’s EJet-E2 program winds down in 2021.
- Boeing faces talent drain as engineers and technicians age.
- Boeing NMA needs engineers and Embraer can supply them.
Pontifications: 2018 is a year of Transformations
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 8, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This is going to be a year of transformations.
This might be viewed with puzzlement by some. After all, only minor-modification models will be entering service this year: the Airbus A350-1000, the Boeing 737-9, the Airbus A319neo and the Boeing 787-10. The first flight of the 737-7 should occur.
Flight testing continues for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, the COMAC C919 and Irkut MC-21.
The proposed deal between Airbus and Bombardier should receive government approvals this year. Talks between Boeing and Embraer may or may not result in a combination of some kind.
The Big Deal, however, resides in Everett (WA).
Is the Airbus A321LR a better NMA stopgap than the 767-300?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
January 04, 2016, © Leeham Co.: We have discussed if the Boeing 767-300ER could function as a stopgap until an NMA would be available. We then compared it with Boeing’s 787-8 and Airbus’ A330-800 as alternative stopgaps. We didn’t include any single-aisle alternatives at the time, like Airbus’ A321LR or Boeing’s 737 MAX 10.
These aircraft have limitations in passenger capacity and range compared with the 767. The least compromised aircraft in an NMA role is the A321LR, which comes within 1,500nm of the range of the 767-300ER. We, therefore, use it as our single-aisle alternative when we look at further stopgaps until an NMA arrives in 7-10 years.
Summary:
- The A321LR has 30% less passenger capacity than the 767-300ER when configured with comparable cabin standards.
- It also has 1,500nm less range than the 767-300ER.
- The operating costs on a trip and seat-mile basis are considerably lower, however.
- If the majority of planned routes are within the capability of the A321LR and other aircraft, with longer range, could complement it on the longest routes, it is a more economical alternative to a new 767, both on a Cash Operating Cost basis and when including capital costs.
- This assumes increased route frequency can compensate the higher capacity of the 767.
NMA market sector is small, Airbus’ Leahy says
This is a continuing series of articles derived from LNC’s “retirement” interview with John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus. Leahy retires this month.
Jan. 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This is the year many expect Boeing to decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft, also known as NMA or unofficially, the
John Leahy, COO-Customers of Airbus. Photo via Google images.
797, to serve the Middle of the Market.
The MOM sector is broadly defined as above the Boeing 737/Airbus A321 and below the Boeing 787/Airbus A330-200/800.
Others, including LNC define the market more broadly.
Boeing’s outstanding year
Dec. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing had an outstanding year.
For the first time since 2013, it booked more sales of the 787 than it produced, the so-called book:bill ratio.
The bridge for the 777 Classic to the 777X was all but filled, a point of controversy for the past several years.
Total net orders through November were 633, almost twice that of Airbus through the same period.
This excludes orders announced at the Dubai Air Show which have yet to be booked.
The only lump of coal, coming just before Christmas: Airbus won a major deal from Delta Air Lines for 100 A321neos plus 100 options.
Other events propelled Boeing to an outstanding 2017.
Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources
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Introduction
Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officially, Boeing says the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, or 797) entry-into-service will be around 2024-25 if the program is launched.
LNC has learned the target date now being discussed is 2027.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
This means the 737 replacement likewise slips, with EIS after 2030 instead of late next decade or in 2030.
The new NMA target date, which we’ve heard from the supply chain and customer base, gives further impetus to the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger production, a decision that is supposed to be made by the end of this year.
Summary
- Technology is at the heart of the new target EIS for the NMA.
- The 737 replacement was always intended to follow the NMA.
- Supply chain asked for 767 production rate ramp-up feasibility.
Top 10 aviation stories of the year on Leeham News
Dec. 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airplane development and the whimsicle made the Top 10 stories on LNC in 2017.
The Top 10 are a statistical listing of the most-viewed posts, not some judgment call on the part of LNC.
Here is the rundown.
Read more
26 Comments
Posted on December 31, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Emirates Airlines, Leeham News and Comment, McDonnell Douglas, MOM, New Midmarket Aircraft, NMA, Qatar Airways
737-7, 737-700, 777-9, A321, A321NEO, A322, A380, Airbus, Bernstein Research, Boeing, Bombardier, C Series, Delta Air Lines, Emirates Airline, McDonnell Douglas, MD-95, New Midmarket Aircraft, NMA, Norwegian Air Shuttle, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines