Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
- A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
- The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
- Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
- PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.
Bjorn’s Corner: Intro, LCC long range and CFM’s LEAP
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 19, 2015: This is the first version of my Corner where I will comment on the aeronautical world as I see it. It will be a mix of tech things (I am an engineer) and my view on things from my European vantage point. Enough on reason and style; lets get started.
LCC goes long range: After AirAsiaX and Norwegian, now Ryanair is going long range, according to Irish Times (or not; the latest news from Robert Wall of The Wall Street Journal is that the board has not approved a long range business plan).
Be that as it may with Ryanair, the key thing is that what happened to the majors on short haul is about to hit them on long haul as well. Short haul LCCs brought about a change in airline economics and in single aisle aircraft. The LCCs, followed by Ultra LCCs, started the trend to denser and denser configurations where the latest trends are sub 29 inch pitch slim-seats and lavatories that started at 37 inch getting slimmed to 31 inch. It has also brought about changes in galleys and emergency exits configurations, all leading to aircraft with higher and higher capacities.
Rebuilding confidence at Bombardier
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- This week the Malay government announced an order for 20 CSeries CS100s. for a new airline.
Introduction
March 17, 2015: c. Leeham Co. Turmoil at Bombardier, both financial and with the departure of several key personnel, caused a crisis in confidence among customers and shareholders. The stock price took a tumble and some Canadian aerospace analysts, and the few on Wall Street who also follow the stock, have become increasingly pessimistic. Leeham News and Comment published a long analysis after Ray Jones departed Bombardier Commercial Aircraft in a surprise move, the latest in a series of top-level departures at the unit. Market reaction was decidedly negative.
CEO Pierre Beaudoin stepped up February 12 to executive chairman, relinquishing the chief executive title of Bombardier to Alain Bellemare, a veteran of Pratt & Whitney whose appointment was generally well received.
Still, customers we talked with continue to be cautious. One has a wait-and-see about what Bellemare will be able to achieve, and how soon. This customer believes Bellemare has until the Paris Air Show in June to show some tangible progress.
Another customer was considerably more upbeat, viewing the appointment as a major change in the company for the better.
Canadian analysts were positive about the management changes, in part because the market has lost confidence in the Beaudoin management and in part because Bellemare and his PW experience are viewed as heavy-weight.
Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisitions and Commercial Aircraft, Bombardier. Source: Fleigerfaust.
We sat down with Ross Mitchell, vice president of Business Acquisitions and Commercial Aircraft for Bombardier, at the ISTAT conference last week in Phoenix for a wide-ranging interview. Here is Part 1.
Summary
- Bombardier needs to restore confidence in the market after all the turmoil. How will this be accomplished?
- Will Alain Bellemare have the flexibility and freedom to do what needs to be done?
- Organizational restructuring has already made some progress.
- The financings are a positive.
This is a pivotal year for the A380 as Airbus considers neo, PIPs
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary
- Customers take wait-and-see approach to prospect of a New Engine Option.
- Mixing engine types a consideration for some.
- Some at Boeing quietly rooting for Airbus to proceed.
Odds and Ends: CS300 first flight delayed; PW GTF; Boeing enters MidEast fray
Baby, it’s cold out there! Bombardier delayed the first flight of its CSeries due to the cold. Click on image to enlarge. Source: Sylvain Faust.
CS300 first flight delayed: When Bombardier says it’s too cold for the CS300 first flight, you know it’s cold up in Montreal. It’s -21C at Mirabel (-6F) and partly cloudy, but that was too cold for the guests, according to our man on the scene, Sylvain Faust. Canadians know how to dress for this cold but visitors don’t. A rescheduled time hasn’t been definitively announced.
Bombardier doesn’t have an open-faced tent and outdoor heaters set up, according to Faust.
PW GTF: Flight Global has a report about Pratt & Whitney’s “new aggressiveness” in competing with CFM International in the battle of the Pure Power Geared Turbo Fan vs the LEAP-1A. These engines power the Airbus A320neo family.
Boeing enters MidEast fray: American, Delta and United airlines want Open Skies revisited in order to curb competition by the Big Three Middle Eastern carriers. Boeing, FedEx and JetBlue, have entered the fray, opposing any such action. Here is the story.
Lufthansa fleet exec praises top-level change at Bombardier
Feb. 13, 2015, c. Leeham Co.: The appointment of Alain Bellemare as president and chief executive officer of Bombardier is viewed positively by the largest and most influential customer for the slow-selling CSeries, Lufthansa Airlines Group.
Nico Buchholz, EVP Fleet Management, Lufthansa Group.
Lufthansa has a firm order for 30 CSeries and options for 30 more. The Group’s subsidiary, Swiss, is to get the firm orders. The market anticipates that the Group could eventually exercise options for its other subsidiaries.
Nico Buchholz, executive vice president for fleet management for the Group, told Leeham News and Comment today that he has worked with Bellemare as a supplier-customer for years in his previous position as an executive of Pratt & Whitney.
Boeing 757 MAX: why its operating economics does not work
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb 12, 2015: In a series of articles during the autumn we covered the replacement scenarios for Boeing’s 757-200 when used for long haul passenger operations. The series also included an interview with Boeing’s head of new airplane studies, Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing where he outlined what Boeing studied and why.
This week The Wall Street Journal published an article portraying that Boeing seriously considered launching a re-engined 757 as a response to Airbus A321LR. Boeing has since vehemently denied the story and we have given the reasons why it does not make sense for Boeing.
As a complement we show the operational economical analysis that we did at the time of our 757 articles, now updated to the exact modifications suggested by The WSJ, a new engine and new winglets paired with modern avionics.
Regional operations with the Turboprop, prop-jet or Jet
- We examined the future of turboprop airliners Jan. 5, 2015, analyzing the backlogs of Bombardier and ATR–and the ATR overwhelming dominance of the current turboprop sector. This is the second of a series looking at this sector.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
- The ATR72-600, Bombardier Q400 and CRJ700 are all about the same size, around 70-80 seats single class or 60-70 seats dual class.
- They offer different comfort levels, and it is not all about speed.
- In developing the economics in two steps we seek the crossover points between the different types.