Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
MC-21 and C919 compared
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Note: With the first flight of the Irkut MC-21 in the weekend, we move the Qantas Ultra Long Haul article Part 2 to a later date.
Introduction
June 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Irkut’s MC-21 and COMAC’s C919 both completed their first flights during last month. Both are new competitors in the market’s hottest segment, that for 150 to 240 seats.
They both challenge the present rulers: Airbus’ A320 and Boeing’s 737 MAX. We made first analysis of the aircraft against their Western competition here, here and here.
We now dig deeper with a direct comparison between the MC-21 and C919 projects.
Summary:
- In the first article, we compare the projects, the structural concepts and the aerodynamics of the MC-21 and C919.
- Follow up articles will compare systems, cabins and overall performance for the aircraft.
Bombardier’s missed opportunity for the CS500
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Introduction
May 29, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing worries that if left unchecked, Bombardier will launch the often-talked about CS500, a 160-189 passenger concept that would compete directly with Boeing’s 737-800 and MAX 8.
Image via Google.
Boeing alleges that Bombardier sold Delta Air Lines 75 CS100s at $19.6m, amounting to price dumping because of Canadian government “subsidies” received in a bailout. Boeing told the US International Trade Commission in a May 24 closing brief that Bombardier, in essence, will become the next Airbus if the ITC doesn’t nothing to penalize Bombardier by slapping 79% tariffs on the Delta aircraft.
As a result, Bombardier stands to drive Boeing out of business and with it, the US aerospace industry.
There are a couple of key flaws in this argument.
Summary
- Bombardier missed its greatest opportunity to develop the CS500 as a competitive airplane to the 737 (and the Airbus A320).
- Boeing claims the CS500 will kill the 737-800. But this model is slated to go out of production by 2019, long before the CS500 could enter service.
- Boeing’s argument assumes the 737 MAX is a long-term airplane. In reality, the New Small Airplane is just around the corner, so-to-speak—which should surpass the economics of the CS500.
Qantas’ ultra-long haul dream
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 25, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The headline is taken from a Reuter’s article by Jamie Freed from April . We helped Freed to check if the Airbus A350-900ULR and Boeing 777-8 could fly the coveted Sydney-London distance direct.
The article says it’s possible, if it’s not too windy. Here we go a bit deeper into what’s involved.
Figure 1. Airbus photo of A350-900 test aircraft in formation.
The question is not if it’s possible. It’s about how many passengers can be carried for the two jets and if it’s economic at the seat count. We use our aircraft model to take a deeper look.
Summary:
- The direct distance Sydney-London is 9,200nm the shortest way.
- On a windy day, this will extend to over 10,000nm air distance when going West.
- Both the A350-900URL and 777-8 can trade passengers for fuel to fly longer.
- We look at where the corner points are and where the trade stops giving us more range.
Paris Air Show Preview
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Introduction
May 22, 2017, © Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show begins June 17, and few in the industry expect much in the way of orders this year.
The order cycle is on the downward side of the bell curve. Sustaining the 2,000, 3,000 or nearly 4,000 gross orders announced 2011-2013 simply couldn’t be achieved. The “order bubble” had to break, and it did. Last year, Airbus and Boeing reported some 1,400 orders between them.
Airbus guides that it will tough to achieve a 1:1 book:bill this year. Boeing is running about 1:1 book:bill so far but it also guides conservatively. Still, LNC thinks Boeing might surprise this year–and some of this could be at the Paris Air Show.
Leeham Co.’s new publication, Commercial Aviation Report, provides a Focus Report on the Air Show. This encompasses the expectations for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, COMAC, Irkut, Mitsubishi, CFM, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce into one easy-to-read package.
The pre-airshow press briefings by the OEMs begin next week. We don’t expect any earth-shattering news from these and we wanted to get our views out ahead of these briefings.
Summary
- Boeing wants to launch the 737-10 MAX at the Paris Air Show. This could spur a group of orders that would give Boeing a rare win in the headlines vs Airbus on the latter’s home ground.
- Mitsubishi plans to have its MRJ90 at the Air Show. One airplane entered the paint shop for ANA colors–this might be the one making the appearance.
- Embraer expects to have its KC-390 there. Will the E195-E2 also make an appearance?
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 3.
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
May 18, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the second article about the US regional aircraft market, we looked at the cabins for the regional aircraft we examine. We started with looking at the typical classes and their seat ratios for the mainline aircraft the regional aircraft are feeding to/from. Then we mimicked that on the regional aircraft.
We filled the cabin with domestic First-class seats, then Premium economy and finally Economy until we got 76 seats or the cabin said stop.
Now we complete the picture by comparing the economics of the aircraft after which we summarize our findings.
Summary:
- The benchmark aircraft for the US scope clauses is the E175 from Embraer. It was designed for the scope clause market.
- It’s larger dimensions means the operating costs are slightly higher than the CRJ900.
- A scope clause-bound operator can compensate the Bombardier CRJ900’s tighter cabin with more seat pitch. It has the longest cabin of all compared aircraft.
- The MRJ70 and CRJ700 are too short for scope clause flying with 76 seat cabins and the MRJ90 is too heavy for the 86,000lb maximum weight limit.
Special Report: Focus on the Boeing 737-10
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May 15, 2017: © Leeham Co.: It’s coming down to crunch time for Boeing to launch the 737-10 MAX.
There was the “soft launch” of the airplane at the March 2017 ISTAT conference in San Diego.
The Paris Air Show is around the corner. It’s next month, and Boeing officials want to launch the program there.
In a Special Report, Leeham Co. LLC is re-launching the magazine that was the foundation of the creation of Leeham Co. and Leeham News and Comment. The magazine, Commercial Aviation Report, or CAR for short, takes an in-depth look at the 737-10, its genesis and its competitive position against the Airbus A321neo.
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations. Part 2.
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
May 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In the first article about the US regional aircraft market, we described the special rules that apply for outsourced regional airlines, operating for a mainline carrier. The mainline pilots limit the outsourcing via Scope clauses in their Union agreements to aircraft with 76 seats and 86,000lb Maximum Take-Off Weight (MTOW).
We identified potential aircraft that fit these restrictions in the first article. Now we examine their load carrying capability.
The MTOW limit sets a hard limit on how large aircraft can be used to house 76 seats. The mainline carriers want the regionals to mimic their domestic cabin classes in their aircraft. There shall be no disruption for a First class or Premium economy passenger whether on a mainline flight or on a feed flight to/from the hub.
The challenge is to accommodate the seating standard in the aircraft that come in question.
Summary:
- Mainline airlines want to replicate their three class cabins for all sectors of a network.
- This means the regional aircraft cabins shall offer First class, Premium economy and Economy sections.
- Only the larger aircraft we study can offer a three class cabin with 76 seats.
Read more
WestJet’s 787, international strategy fraught with risks
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Introduction
Boeing 787-9. WestJet ordered 10 and placed an option for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019. Boeing photo.
May 8, 2017, © Leeham Co.: WestJet, Canada’s #2 airline behind Air Canada, is making dramatic departures from its low-cost, low-fare strategy since the company began operations in February 1996.
The company earlier announced it will form an Ultra Low-Cost Carrier (ULCC). Last week came an order for 10 Boeing 787-9s and options for 10 more. Deliveries begin in 2019.
Summary
- WestJet is taking on Air Canada and its LCC unit, Rouge, in LCC and long-haul LCC markets.
- “Too much going on to get comfortable,” writes analyst.
- Capital costs will go up significantly.
Regional aircraft for US Scope clause operations
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
May 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The US regional aircraft market changed shape last year. Most players expected that the negotiations between mainline pilots and the airlines would allow larger and heavier aircraft going forward.
But no, the present limits of 76 passengers and a Max Take-Off Weight (MTOW) of 86,000lb remained. Next negotiation round will be 2019 (United Airlines) and 2020 (American and Delta Airlines). By now, most observers expect the present limits to stay beyond 2020.
Figure 1. United Express Embraer E175. Source: United Airlines.
The non-moving limits surprised manufacturers. They expected their new aircraft could fit under new rules, allowing heavier aircraft.
With the changed situation, we go through which aircraft fit the present rules and which does not. And what are the options, should the rules not change come 2020.
Summary:
- The present scope clause-compliant aircraft are the CRJ700 and CRJ900 from Bombardier and E175-E1 from Embraer.
- These aircraft will be joined by the new MRJ70 from Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation at the turn of the decade. The MRJ90 will arrive as well, but is too heavy for Scope-restricted airlines.
- We use our performance model to dive into how these aircraft operate under present and future Scope clause rules.
Read more
C919, the Chinese challenger
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 01, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China) C919 is expected to have its first flight this month, perhaps as early as this week. We review where the program stands and how it compares to its competition.
When the C919 program was launched in 2008, neither Airbus nor Boeing envisioned re-engining the A320 and 737 families. First flight was planned for 2014 and entry-into-service in 2016.
The C919 would have had economic and capital cost advantages over the A320 and 737NG. With program delays of at least four years, and maybe more, those advantages have been narrowed. Read more