Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
ATR begins US tour, part owner wants to divorce Airbus
ATR is making a push to sell its turbo-props in the US, which is the last exclusive domain of the Bombardier Q400. Note the new forward door on this ATR-72. The absence of this door, which the Q400 has, was a strike against the ATR in the US. The door now enables jetway boarding. Photo via Twitter.
May 3, 2016, © Leeham Co.: ATR, the maker of the ATR turbo-prop, is beginning a tour of its aircraft in the US, the last uncontested domain for the rival Bombardier Q400.
ATR won orders for its ATR-42/72 in the US decades ago, but largely ceded the market to Bombardier. ATR-42s fly for FedEx, the express package carrier, but no
ATR-42 operated for FedEx. No passenger ATRs are operated in the USA. Photo via Google images.
passenger ATRs are in service in the USA.
As the tour gets underway, Finmeccania, a 50% owner of ATR with Airbus owning the other half, wants to assume the latter’s holdings if Airbus doesn’t change its mind over its refusal to green light development of a next generation turbo-prop.
Airbus has for several years refused to grant approval because ATR had between 80% and 90% of the backlog at any given time. Bombardier had the remaining market share backlog. Now that oil prices are low, Airbus doesn’t believe a business case can me made to justify a new development.
Bjorn’s Corner: C Series flight controls
By Bjorn Fehrm
29April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: With the order by Delta Air Lines, the Bombardier C Series has taken the step up to be a viable alternative to Airbus’ and Boeing’s single aisle 130-150 seat aircraft.
In my description of airliners’ flight control and Flight Management Systems (FMS), I have focused on the established mainline single aisle players. Time to change that; C Series has arrived and will stay in the mainline segment.
Why 130 seats as a limit? Because below 130 seats there are a number of additional players (Embraer, Sukhoi, Mitsubishi…) and we can’t describe them all right now.
Now to how Bombardier has implemented the flight controls, autopilot and FMS for the C Series. In fact, we will look at how they have made the C Series cockpit, Figure 1.
Figure 1. C Series flight deck. Source: Bombardier.
I haven’t flown the C Series yet (working on it!) but I have been able to glean quite a bit over time and spent quite some time in the cockpit with the Bombardier test pilots at the Paris Air Show.
So here is a shot at describing the C Series control philosophies and capabilities and how they mimic/differ from Airbus and Boeing.
Airbus Group 1Q 2016 results: Slow start to the year, guidance maintained.
By Bjorn Fehrm
28 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group has had a slow start to 2016. Deliveries of A320neo, A350 and A400M are slowed by problems with engine and cabin suppliers. Only 127 aircraft were delivered out of a total guidance of 670 deliveries for 2016, a mere 18%. Group 1Q 2016 (1Q 2015) revenue were €12.2b (€12.1b) with EBIT of €501m (€651m), down 23% year on year.
The group expects to recover the shortfall in deliveries during the year and to reach guidance levels for revenue and EBIT, except for the troublesome A400M. This time it’s a engine gearbox item which is the culprit. Airbus CFO, Harald Wilhelm, gave a clear warning during the quarterly conference call: the A400M program “risks a significant charge” during the year.
The financial results for the divisions for the quarter were:
- The commercial aircraft division delivered 125 (134) aircraft with revenues €8,668m (€8,565m) and EBIT €407m (€569m).
- Airbus Helicopters delivered 56 (62) helicopters with revenues €1,158m (€1,285m) and EBIT €33m (€52m).
- Airbus Defence and Space revenues were €2,534m (€2,603m) with EBIT €109m (€90m).
Details of the Airbus Group 1Q 2016 results are below.
Airbus deliveries first USA-made A321ceo, to JetBlue
The first Airbus A321ceo assembled at the Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. Photo from Airways News via Twitter.
April 25, 2016: The first Airbus A320 family aircraft assembled at the Airbus Mobile (AL) plant was delivered today to jetBlue. The A321ceo, which the airline named BluesMobile, is the first of 10 A321s now in production at the plant. Eight more A321s will be delivered to American Airlines. Spirit Airlines gets the 10th.
Pontifications: Earnings week for Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer
By Scott Hamilton
April 25, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer having their first quarter earnings call this week. Bombardier also has its Annual General Meeting concurrent with its 1Q earnings on Friday.
The big anticipation will be with Bombardier.
Earlier this month, The Wall Street Journal reported Delta Air Lines was going to order 75+50 C Series from BBD. Delta, on its 1Q earnings call, said it had nothing to announce but would have more to say at its investors day. This is May 16.
But at the same time, BBD postponed its AGM and 1Q call from the 28th to the 29th. Delta’s board of directors meets on the 28th. Previously, BBD postponed by one day its year-end earnings call to coincide with Air Canada, which announced an order for 45 C Series, plus options.
Is Bombardier’s rescheduling another harbinger of the Delta order, or will Delta hold off any announcement until that May 16 investors day?
Or could Delta announce the Bombardier order Friday and the widely reported, expected order for 30-37 Airbus A321ceos?
The world aviation geeks wonder.
Bjorn’s Corner: We fly to Nice
By Bjorn Fehrm
22 April 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Last week we described the function of the aircraft’s Flight Management System, FMS. Now we will use the FMS to program a flight between Innsbruck in Austria and my hometown Nice on the French Riviera.
To make it practical and easy to follow, we will focus on how the Flightplan that we have programmed into the FMS will be processed. To follow that, we look at the display of the FMS navigation on the aircraft’s navigation display. There, one can follow how the FMS and Autopilot work through all the information that a flight-planned mission contains.
The cockpit we see in the picture is the aircraft we will use, an A319 that we have borrowed for the day from Lufthansa, just to help us understand how navigation with a FMS works. It is of course not a real aircraft, but it’s not far from it.
Figure 1. Our flight for the day, Aerosoft’s A319. Source: Aerosoft’s A319 flight simulator
The best flight simulators that are available for your PC today are extremely well done and realistic; this is one of them. It’s an A319 simulator from the German company Aerosoft. I flew the mission for us yesterday.
Let’s see how it works.
Fewer A350s in 2017-18, says Cowen & Co.; not so, says Airbus
April 21, 2016: Airbus will assemble fewer A350s than planned in 2017 and 2018, according to a short note to clients by the Cowen & Co. obtained by LNC.
Not so, says Airbus.
The investment bank was commenting on supplier Hexcel.
Airbus, Boeing 1Q earnings ahead
April 20, 2016: Airbus and Boeing will report their first quarter earnings April 28 and 27 respectively.
Year-to-date, Boeing is clobbering Airbus in orders and deliveries. It should be noted that last year, Boeing jumped to an early lead in orders and Airbus came roaring back by mid-year and year-end to outsell Boeing by a wide margin. Each company has guided at least 1:1 book-to-bill. This suggests Boeing would outsell Airbus this year because of a higher production rate: more than 740 compared with fewer than 700. Given Airbus’ propensity to have a stronger second half sales than first half, the outcome of the sales race is anything but iffy to call at this early juncture.
737-7X, 737-10 studies illustrate Boeing weakness in single-aisle market
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The Wall Street Journal revealed last week that Boeing is planning the airplane, which is larger than the current 737-7 but smaller than the 737-8. Jon Ostrower, the reporter, dubbed the plane the 737-7.5. Internally, it’s called the 737-7X.
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Posted on April 27, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, United Airlines
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