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History undermines Boeing claim of C Series impact: analysis

Analysis

Dec. 22, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing blames a subsidized, price-dumped Bombardier C Series for the poor sales of the smallest member of the 737 family, the -700 and the 7 MAX, but history doesn’t support the claim.

The US Department of Commerce clearly ignored sales evidence that the 737-700 has been “done” for many years and the 737-7 MAX was an unattractive design

Boeing 737-7 MAX. Rendering via Google images.

that hasn’t been fixed with a redesign; airlines simply don’t want the airplane. Commerce levied tariffs amounting to 292% on C Series imported into the United States in the future.

The US International Trade Commission is currently awaiting post-hearing briefs from Dec. 18 testimony from Boeing, Bombardier, Delta Air Lines and other parties to determine whether Boeing suffered “harm” by the C Series deal with Delta and a near-miss with United Airlines.

If the ITC concludes Boeing suffered harm, the DOC tariffs stand. If not, the DOC action is moot. The loser at ITC is expected to appeal.

79 Comments

Posted on December 22, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Delta Air Lines, Leeham News and Comment, Lessors, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines

737-7, 737-700, 737-8, 737-800, AerCap, Air Lease Corp., Airbus, airlines, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Aviation Capital Group, Boeing, Bombardier, C Series, CS100, CS300, Deltas Air Lines, ILFC, Ilyushin Finance Corp., Macquarie Airfinance, Uniterd Airlines, WestJet

Used A330-200s could be interim solution to NMA

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Introduction

Dec. 11, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is considering restarting the 767-300ER passenger line as an interim aircraft to the New Midmarket Airplane.

Airbus is pushing the A330-800 or, alternative, new A330-200s are its solution to the upper end of the Middle of the Market sector.

There is another alternative, however: used A330-200s. There is an emerging supply of these as one airline plans a down-sizing and initial 10- to 12-year leases expire in the near future.

Etihad is planning to dispose of its Airbus A330-200s. These would make a good, potential pick-up by an airline seeking an interim solution while awaiting the New Midrange Aircraft. Photo via Google images.

Summary

NMA EIS target remains 2025, Boeing says, as opposed to 2027, according to market sources.
Regardless, timeline, production ramp-up indicates near-term need for newer airplanes.
Business case for NMA still hasn’t closed; program launch still uncertain, but activities continue.
Boeing 767 production ramp up studies underway, effective as soon as early 2020.

Embraer’s improved E-Jet E2

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

December 07, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Embraer is four months from first service introduction of the new generation E-Jet, the E190-E2, with Norway’s Wideroe. Following the smooth E190-E2 program will be the larger E195-E2 in 2019.

Embraer’s E2 update of the E-Jet is more elaborate than the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX updates. In addition to new engines, the aircraft’s wings and systems are changed. In addition, the fuselages are stretched on two of the three models for increased passenger capacity.

We analyze the areas of change from the original E-Jets and what these mean for the operations and economics of the aircraft.

Summary:

The E-Jet E2 keeps the strong point of the original E-Jet, its comfortable cabin, and improves other areas to keep the family competitive after 2020.
As the only aircraft family in the market (regional or mainline), the E2 models E175, E190 and E195 all get their own optimized wings. The result is good field and range performance paired with low fuel consumption.
The E2 family introduces advanced Digital Fly-By-Wire to allow reduced static stability and by it trim drag. This improves the fuel consumption further.
Other system changes focus lower maintenance costs. The new single-aisle generation (A320neo, 737 MAX) lowers maintenance costs per seat. The regional OEMs must respond.

3 Comments

Posted on December 7, 2017 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, American Airlines, E-Jet, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, Premium

Bombardier, CF34-10E, CF34-8E, CSeries, E190, E190 E2, E195, E195 E2, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, PW1900G

Airbus’ strategy for the A330-800

By Scott Hamilton

Dec. 6, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The A330-800 entered the final assembly line last week at the Airbus production plant in Toulouse, France, amid doubts in the industry that the airplane will be produced beyond the prototype.

The first A330-800 is on the Final Assembly Line at Airbus. Source: Airbus.

There is only one order for the sub-type, six from Hawaiian Airlines—and Hawaiian is expected to cancel the order. The airline is running a competition between the Airbus A350-900 and the Boeing 787-8/9, according to market intelligence.

145 Comments

Posted on December 6, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines

767-300ER, 787-8, A330-200, A330-300, A330-800, A330-900, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Boeing 797, Hawaiian Airlines, low cost carriers, NMA, United Airlines

Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources

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Introduction

Dec. 4, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officially, Boeing says the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, or 797) entry-into-service will be around 2024-25 if the program is launched.

LNC has learned the target date now being discussed is 2027.

Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.

This means the 737 replacement likewise slips, with EIS after 2030 instead of late next decade or in 2030.

The new NMA target date, which we’ve heard from the supply chain and customer base, gives further impetus to the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger production, a decision that is supposed to be made by the end of this year.

Summary

Technology is at the heart of the new target EIS for the NMA.
The 737 replacement was always intended to follow the NMA.
Supply chain asked for 767 production rate ramp-up feasibility.

2 Comments

Posted on December 4, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

American Airlines, Boeing, CFM, GE Aviation, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Midmarket Aircraft, NMA, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, United Airlines

767-300ER, 797, American Airlines, ANA, Boeing, Boeing Global Services, Delta Air Lines, Japan Air Lines, KC-46A, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Midmarket Aircraft, NMA, United Airlines

Leahy reflects on 33 years at Airbus

John Leahy will retire in January and stay for a short transition to help his successor, Eric Schulz, who was named EVP, Chief of Sales, Marketing and Contracts. Leahy is Chief Operating Officer-Customers. During his three-decade long tenure at Airbus, the company moved from a single-digit market share to surpassing Boeing for more than a decade in sales. Leahy spoke with LNC about his retirement.

John Leahy, right, with William Franke, CEO of Indigo Partners at a history-making deal for 430 A320neos, announced at the Dubai Air Show. Photo via Google images.

Nov. 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: John Leahy was a salesman at Piper Aircraft, a small general aviation aircraft producer when he received a call from a headhunter to join Airbus North America as its top salesman.

Leahy was head of marketing at Piper. With a pilot’s license, he would take various Piper aircraft to conventions or air shows and on sales calls for demonstration.

“It was great fun,” he said. “It was really an enjoyable job.” Leahy said Piper was consolidating everything in Vero Beach (FL) and he wasn’t sure he wanted to move there. He wanted a more direct sales role and accepted a position with Piper in Geneva, Switzerland, as Director of the Eastern Hemisphere. “I felt that was pretty cool.”

Before moving, the headhunter called.

62 Comments

Posted on November 28, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines

Airbus, airlines, America West Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Braniff, Delta Air Lines, John Leahy, Northwest Airlines, Pan Am, United Airlines, US Airways

Boeing’s good year for wide-body orders

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Introduction

Nov. 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Officials from Airbus and Boeing each said this year that wide-body orders, languishing for the past couple of years, should pick up by the turn of the decade as the in-service fleet reaches 20-25 years old.

Aerolineas Argentinas plans a wide-body competition for deliveries around 2020-2021. Photo via Google images.

But Boeing has had an exemplary year through Nov. 21, the most recent update of its Orders and Deliveries website. The company reported 160 net orders for the 767, 777 and 787, with 88 for the latter. Commitments for 40 more at the Dubai Air Show are not included, as these have not yet been firmed up.

Airbus hasn’t done nearly as well: just 56 net orders for the A330 and A350 families through October, its most recently reported data.

Have Boeing’s results indicated a sooner-than-expected uptick in orders?

Summary

Not enough data to draw definitive conclusions, but uptick may be arriving early.
Aerolineas Argentinas and Thai Airways are looking at wide-body aircraft orders. See the stories here and here.
Early this year, 5-year slump was seen. By August, strong market seen.

Challenges facing Boeing in 767-300ER passenger restart

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Now open to all readers.

Introduction

Nov. 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The clock is ticking toward the end of the year for Boeing to decide whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line.

Officials want to decide by year-end.

Restarting the line isn’t as easy as one might think. Boeing is building the 767-300ER freighter and it has the tooling for the passenger model. Boeing has several challenges to resolve before any green light for the restart.

Summary

There is a space problem at Everett, where the 767 is assembled.
Restarting the passenger supply chain is an issue.
And, as ever, so is cost.
Does Boeing simply restart the line without upgrades, or are upgrades included, which will increase the cost to produce the airplane?
Closing the business case on the NMA.

5 Comments

Posted on November 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

air force tanker, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines

767-300ER, 767-300ERF, 797, A330, Airbus, American Airlines, ANA, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, FedEx, JAL, KC-46A, Middle of the Market, MOM, New Midmarket Airplane, NMA, United Airlines

Pontifications: Playing catch-up

Oct. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Recent weeks have been dominated by the news of the Boeing-Bombardier trade complaint. More is to come before and after the end of the year.

It’s time to catch up on some other news.

13 Comments

Posted on October 16, 2017 by Scott Hamilton

American Airlines, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Pontifications, United Airlines

737-700, American Airlines, Bombardier, CS100, Delta Air Lines, E175-E1, E175-SC, Embraer, United Airlines

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Leeham News and Analysis

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Top 10 aviation stories of the year on Leeham News

History undermines Boeing claim of C Series impact: analysis

Used A330-200s could be interim solution to NMA

Introduction

Summary

Embraer’s improved E-Jet E2

Introduction

Summary:

Airbus’ strategy for the A330-800

Boeing moves EIS target for NMA to 2027: sources

Introduction

Summary

Leahy reflects on 33 years at Airbus

Boeing’s good year for wide-body orders

Introduction

Summary

Challenges facing Boeing in 767-300ER passenger restart

Now open to all readers.

Introduction

Summary

Pontifications: Playing catch-up

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