Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Farnborough: Orders on Day 3
July 18, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Firm orders had largely dried up by day three of Farnborough 2018, although Boeing could celebrate some big commitments for its Max narrowbody from Vietjet and four undisclosed customers. Elsewhere Bombardier won its first order of the show after Uganda’s flag carrier signed for CRJ900s.
Boeing’s P8 hits six years in service
The object below the APU outlet is one of many sensors on the Boeing P8-A Poseidon. Source: Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2018 © Leeham News, Farnborough: Boeing’s P8-A Poseidon, the 737-based airplane best known for anti-submarine patrols, entered service with the US Navy six years ago.
Since then, Australia, New Zealand, the UK and Norway are among the countries ordering the airplane and the first Navy P8 entered heavy maintenance here.
Boeing produces the P8 at a 1.5/mo rate, which is full rate.
The Navy ordered 117 P8s, but there is potential to order more.
Farnborough: NMA business case appears to weaken, evidence at air show indicates
Analysis
July 18, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: The biggest, longest-running story at this year’s Farnborough Air Show is about an airplane that doesn’t exist: the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA or 797).
And the underlying story that’s emerging from the buzz on the sidelines and interviews with key observers and industry participants is that Boeing’s business case for the airplane appears to be getting weaker, not stronger.
Farnborough: Good days for Embraer, 777F
July 18, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Embraer came roaring back in the first two days of the Farnborough Air Show after a slow year last year.
Boeing’s 777F saw a surge of orders and commitments and the 747-8F also landed some new commitments.
Through Tuesday, the Brazilian manufacturer announced orders, options and commitments for 265 members of the E1 and E2 EJet families.
These are:
Farnborough: Day 2 orders tally
July 17, 2018 (c) Airfinance Journal: Day two of the Farnborough air show saw David Neeleman’s new US airline commitment for 60 Airbus A220-300 aircraft, a story that was first revealed by Airfinance Journal on 11 June. Embraer announced commitments for 270 aircraft from six customers.
Farnborough: Boeing Global Services ponders 777-300ER P2F program
July 17, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Boeing Global Services is studying the world’s first passenger-to-freighter conversion program for the 777-300ER, BGS president Stan Deal revealed to LNC today at the Farnborough Air Show.
Boeing sells the 777-200LRF as a new freighter and third parties are gearing up for a 777-200ER P2F program, but up to now, there hasn’t been a -300ER P2F program contemplated.
The -300ERF would be targeted for the volumetric cargo market as opposed to the density-based market that is served by the 777F.
Deal said BGS hopes to conclude its study by fall. A potential conversion cost is not yet known.
Farnborough: First day order recap
By Alex Derber
July 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal: Day One of Farnborough 2018 belonged firmly to Boeing in terms of firm orders, although the US manufacturer saved up many of its largest announcements from deals done earlier in the year. Airbus, meanwhile, almost achieved parity if one includes softer commitments from airlines and lessors, although there were some speculative deals, notably a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for 17 A350s from Starlux, a Taiwanese start-up not yet in business.
Other noteworthy deals included lessor Jackson Square Aviation’s first new aircraft order and United decision to buy E175s rather than the newer E2 variant.
Farnborough: Boeing reconsiders metal fuselage for NMA as cost remains major challenge
July 16, 2018, © Leeham News: Farnborough: Boeing has returned to considering a metal fuselage for the New Midmarket Aircraft as an alternative to the ovoid-based composite design that has been the focus for the past two-three years, multiple sources tell LNC.
Boeing hasn’t been able to narrow the cost of the composite design to a point where selling the aircraft in the $70m-range is feasible, sources say.
Farnborough: E190-E2 “quietest single aisle airplane in production,” boasts CEO
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Embraer today revealed that the E190-E2 achieved better fuel burn than its target of 16%.
Flight tests showed fuel burn was 17.3% better than the E1, said Rodrigo de Souza, VP Marketing in a press briefing in advance of the official show opening tomorrow.
Wideroe Airlines, the launch operator of the E190-E2, now has three in service. De Souza said initial analysis of the operations show fuel burn is even better than the flight test results, but he declined to be specific until more operations are completed with more airplanes in a few months.
Embraer claims fuel burn is 10% better than the Airbus A220.
Wideroe’s small fleet has completed 800 flight hours at an average of seven hours a day. In eight out of 11 weeks, the fleet had 100% dispatch reliability, he said.
Pontifications: Final Farnborough forecast
Special Sunday edition of Pontifications.
By Scott Hamilton
July 15, 2018, © Leeham News: The Farnborough Air Show officially starts tomorrow, when airframers begin their public relations presentations and orders are announced.
As this is written on July 13, I’m doing a final update of what to expect from the show. It’s always risky making predictions. If they are overly optimistic or pessimistic, the predictor can look foolish.
But here goes.
LNC took its first forecast look June 25.