Southern state coalition bid likely for Boeing NMA assembly site

June 27, 2018, © Leeham News: A coalition of four Southern US states that joined to win the US Air Force tanker contact site location for Mobile (AL) will likely link up again to bid for the assembly line of the prospective Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft, officials of three of the states said yesterday.

The Aerospace Alliance includes Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

An official of an economic development commission for Charleston (SC) said Charleston will also likely throw its hat into the ring.

The comments were made at the Leeham Co./Airfinance Journal Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference yesterday in Mobile. The conference continues today.

Read more

Vertical integration will be a ‘bumpy road’

By Laura Mueller

June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: OEMs are targeting a larger piece of aftermarket revenues, but ultimately their airline customers will determine whether a push to vertical integration is the right one, Brian Prentice, a partner at Oliver Wyman told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.

Read more

Airbus supplier ownership structure questioned

By Laura Mueller

June 26, 2018, © Airfinance Journal: Airbus-owned, tier-one supplier Premium Aerotec could end up with different owners due to the changing supply chain landscape, Dr David Pritchard, associate professor SUNY Empire State College, told delegates at the Leeham Co/Airfinance Journal Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile today.

“I think it will likely be spun off to private equity investors…you need to look at changes in the airframe industry. It doesn’t make sense for Airbus to own it and to own everything,” he says.

Read more

Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up

Subscription Required

Introduction

June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.

There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).

Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.

Summary

  • Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
  • No NMA program launch.
  • Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
  • Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
  • Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
  • Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
  • Embraer looks for order boost.

Read more

Pontifications: Growing aerospace in the US Southeast

By Scott Hamilton

June 24, 2018, © Leeham News: We’re a week away from the partnership between Airbus and the Bombardier C Series program becoming effective.

Beginning tomorrow, Leeham Co. and Airfinance Journal hold the Inaugural Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference in Mobile (AL), where Bombardier will be a C Series Final Assembly Line.

The US Southeast will also be a competitor for the site selection of the FAL for the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) should Boeing decide, probably next year, to proceed with this new airplane.

Read more

US start-up has a lot of Moxy

Subscription Required

Introduction

June 21, 2018, © Leeham News: A new US airline secured delivery positions for 60 Bombardier CS300s for deliveries from 2020, according to its business plan circulating this month.

Moxy Airlines is led by David Neeleman, founder of several airlines including Morris Air (later acquired by Southwest Airlines), WestJet, JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul Airlines.

No application for certification had been filed with the US Department of Transportation as of last week.

The plan was first reported by Airfinance Journal June 11.

Summary
  • Business plan says an “order” has been placed for 60 CS300s but also says “delivery positions” were procured.
  • Delivery positions may be those of Republic Airways Holdings.
  • Initial funding of $100m raised.
  • Secondary cities, point-to-point business model.
  • Likely boost for C Series plant in Mobile (AL)—but a suggestion that this fills the line for two years is off base.

Read more

IAM may be playing with fire in SC union vote

June 20, 2018, © Leeham News: The International Association of Machinists may be playing with fire.

Puget Sound’s IAM 751 may be burned in the process.

The Charleston Post and Courier reported that the IAM will file a labor grievance over Boeing’s refusal to recognize certification of a “micro-union” while the company appeals the legality of its creation.

“Boeing ignores us at their own peril,” the newspaper quotes a union official.

The union may be pursuing this at its own peril.

At stake is where Boeing will assemble the prospective New Midmarket Aircraft, or NMA (aka 797).

The New Midmarket Aircraft site selection will be discussed at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next week in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.

Read more

VLA era is over; are 777X, A350-1000 too large?

Subscription Required

Introduction

June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: The era of the Very Large Aircraft appears over.

The Boeing 747 passenger airliner, while nominally still offered for sale, is in reality dead.

The Airbus A380 limps along in what may prove to be a vain hope that airport congestion will spur sales next decade.

The next level down, however, doesn’t appear very strong.

Sales of the Airbus A350-1000 stalled at 200 or less for years.

Sales of the Boeing 777X likewise stalled following program launch in 2013-2014. Although the 777X has twice as many orders as the A350-1000, fully 72% of them come from three customers, one of which is in serious financial trouble and may cancel or defer some or all its orders.

Summary
  • Orders for the largest Large Twin-Aisle aircraft lag the Small and Medium Twin-Aisles.
  • Big 3 in the Middle East are major customers for the 777X, A350-1000. Iran Air also buyer of -1000.
  • While Big Twin languishes, small- and medium-twins remain in demand.
Read more

Pontifications: Why Embraer downplayed range of EJet

By Scott Hamilton

June 18, 2018, © Leeham News: Bjorn Fehrm on Thursday wrote (behind the paywall) that Embraer seems to be selling the E190-E2 short when it comes to range.

Embraer’s published range is 2,850nm. But Bjorn discovered that the range is truly 3,250nm, fully 14% more than the advertised range.

I laughed out loud when Bjorn told me of this discrepancy.

Why would Embraer short-change the E190-E2’s range?

The answer was obvious to me.

Read more

Airbus risks losing market share if it doesn’t boost A350 production

Subscription Required

Introduction

June 11, 2018, © Leeham News: Boeing is increasing the production rate of the 787 next year from 12 to 14/mo.

Airbus is reducing the production rate of the A330neo from 10 to 6/mo.

Last year, buried deep in its website, Airbus indicated plans to go to rate 13/mo, although no date was listed.

With few sales of the airplane last year or so far this year, will demand support a rate hike next year? If so, a decision is needed pretty much now to go forward.

One London-based aerospace analyst tells LNC the top executives say no rate hike will be coming.

Scheduled deliveries may lend a clue.

Summary

  • Boeing is winning the wide-body order race and retaken the lead in market share.
  • Airbus’ former top sales chief bemoaned the lack of delivery slots for the A350.
  • Supplier issues still slow A350 deliveries.

Read more