Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24. May 30, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3. May 29, 2025
- Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals May 26, 2025
Odds and Ends: Hawaiian orders A330-800, drops A350-800; A330neo market potential; Engines and Airbus
Hawaiian Air’s A350-800s: Hawaiian Airlines July 22 ordered six Airbus A330-800s and simultaneously dropped its order for six A350-800s. HA also took six purchase rights for the A338. Deliveries begin in 2019.
The A338 is slightly smaller, nominally at 252 seats, and has somewhat less range at 7,600nm than the 276-seat, 8,250nm A358, but only Hawaiian knows how much it needed the extra range. Losing the extra seats does give HA a hit to revenue potential, however. For wide-body airplanes, Airbus says each seat has the revenue potential of $2m/yr.
Offsetting the revenue loss is a far lower capital cost for the A338 vs the A358. Our economic analysis, based on technical specifications estimated before the Farnborough Air Show and before Airbus revealed data for the A338, showed the A338 pretty close to the A358 on a pure operating cost basis, not including adjustments for capital cost.
Airbus A330-800 and -900neo, first analysis part 2: engines and maintenance costs
Further to our initial analysis of the launched Airbus A330neo, here is our follow up diving deeper into engine matters and maintenance costs.
The A330neo engine
We met with Rolls Royce Vice President Customer Marketing Richard Goodhead to talk about the Trent T7000 for the A330neo and to straighten some misconceptions around the engine. First the base facts as presented by Airbus and Rolls Royce Monday: Read more
Farnborough Air Show, July 15: VLA program analysis: A380, B747-8I, 777-9, [and the wishful thought of an A350-1100]
Fabrice Bregier, CEO of Airbus Commercial, threw cold water on the prospects of an A380neo and an A350-1100, the latter to compete with the Boeing 777-9.
Bregier’s position on the A350-1100 leaves Boeing with a monopoly at the 400-seat marker. Boeing doesn’t view the 777-9, which nominally seats 407 passengers, as part of the Very Large Aircraft sector which begins at 400 seats. Rather, Boeing lumps the -9 into the medium-twin aisle sector (300-400 seats).
While Airbus continues to struggle with sales for the A380, Boeing doesn’t much talk about the 747-8I anymore, focusing primarily on the future potential of the 747-8F. Boeing bravely talks about the prospect of four or five customer sales for the 747-8I this year, including a strong wishful-thinking of an order from Emirates Airlines (president Tim Clark says he’s not interested).
Airbus A330-800 and -900neo, first analysis
Airbus cleared the air about the A330neo, which we concluded was a must last December, and made the 2014 Farnborough Airshow go off to an exciting start. A lot has been speculated about the A330neo, and in the end it did come out a bit stronger than what most had anticipated. Some of that is marketing but a lot is real, and here we give a first assessment of what was launched.
Let’s start with the specifics as given by Airbus and Rolls-Royce today in presentations and discussions. Here are the A330-800neo and -900neo’s main features: Read more
Is the A330neo engine Rolls Royce’s first carbon fan model?
The Airbus A330neo program has come a long way since our 29th of December article “A330neo prospect gains traction.” With the Farnborough Air Show days away, we understand there are now Airbus internal job postings for engineers to join the program. The speculation then reduces to “when” the program will be announced, not “if.” Another would be what improvements are foreseen for the Boeing 787-derived engines that may power the neo.
Rolls Royce reportedly gains exclusivity
Reuters recently reported that Rolls Royce might get an exclusive engine deal for the A330neo. There are many reasons Airbus might give Rolls Royce or General Electric exclusivity on an engine for the A330neo, especially if Airbus sees the likely sales of the updated aircraft to stay below 500 units. The reasons can range from how much of the $2B estimated program cost the engine manufacturer would pay to what efficiency improvements they would undertake on top of what is already on the way for their 787 engines. There is every reason to believe the GEnx-1B can match the fuel consumption performance of a further developed Trent T1000-TEN. We understand Rolls Royce will leverage developments from the A350 TXWB engines but GE can just as easily leverage developments from the LEAP program.
The picture shows the Rolls Royce Trent 1000 carbon fibre fan demonstrator engine from the companies ALPS (Advanced Low Pressure System) program. Is this also the looks of the Rolls Royce A330neo engine?
Air New Zealand shows off first 787-9
Air New Zealand and Boeing displayed the industry’s first 787-9, of which ANZ is the launch customer, in a media show-and-tell today.
ANZ touted its black-painted exterior and black-decorated interior for what it called a game-changing airplane that is better than the 787-8. Officials noted this is the first time an airplane stretch has more range than the shorter version.
Air New Zealand is the launch customer for the Boeing 787-9. It displayed the plane July 9 in a show-and-tell for international media. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
Boeing officials pointed to a more efficient production system, better engineering and lessons learned from the 787-8 program that produced an airplane that is expected to at least match the current dispatch reliability of the 787-8, if not better it, upon entry-into-service in the coming weeks. The 787-8 had a difficult EIS and a lower-than-expected dispatch reliability. Lessons learned should overcome all these disappointments.
GE analysis post Farnborough
Our wrap up of Farnborough would be incomplete without looking closer at the world’s leading engine supplier, GE Aviation, which together with partners (like SAFRAN in CFM joint venture) garnered more than $36 Billion in orders and commitments during the show. This figure was only significantly bettered by Airbus ($75 Billion) and it came close to Boeing’s $40 Billion. With such level of business the claim by GE Aviation CEO, David Joyce, that the Airbus A330neo engine business was not the right thing for GE as they have more business than then they know what to do with, was certainly no case of “sour grapes”. Read more
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Posted on July 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, Farnborough Air Show, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized
737 MAX, 777, 777-300ER, 777X, 787, A320NEO, A330neo, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce