Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Pontifications: Technical challenges for UAMs, et al, only part of the problems March 28, 2023
- An uneven financial recovery among OEMs and Suppliers March 27, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 5. Optimal fuselage March 24, 2023
- Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 5P. Optimal fuselage March 24, 2023
- A Chinese intervention in Ukraine would kill its aerospace industry March 23, 2023
Paris Air Show, Day 4: Closing orders, commitments
June 20, 2019, © Airfinance Journal: By day four of the Paris Air Show, most of the OEMs had already wrapped up their deal-making, but there was still time for Airbus to 
tempt another two airlines and another lessor towards the A321XLR and the A220-300 products.
Airbus and CFM are the manufacturers that will leave Paris the happiest, although ATR was keen to make its case, citing 75 “new orders” at the show. However, in line with the odd phrasing employed by most marketing departments this week, it was difficult to discern what those “orders” meant. ATR said they included “35 firm orders from NAC disclosed on June 18”, but its press release about that deal described only a “letter of intent for 35 firm ATR -600s, with options for a further 35 and purchase rights for another 35.”
Paris Air Show, Day 2: Orders and commitments
June 18, 2019, © Airfinance Journal: Boeing received a much-needed vote of confidence in its grounded 737 Max aircraft with a commitment for 200 of the type from IAG.
Nonetheless, the US manufacturer failed to register a firm order from the second day in a row.
Airbus, in contrast, continued to build momentum for its new A321XLR with orders and commitments from IAG and Cebu Pacific.
CFM also had a good day, registering big orders from lessors and AirAsia for its LEAP engine.
No new turboprop from Embraer for now
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May 27, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is not going to launch a new 70-90 seat turboprop now or at the Paris Air Show next month, the CEO of its Commercial Aviation unit said today at the company’s pre-air show briefings in Brazil.
Speculation has been rising since word leaked last year that Embraer began showing a conceptual turboprop airliner to potential customers. But John Slattery, CEO of Embraer 
Commercial Aviation, said the business case has yet to be closed, information still needs to be gathered and analyzed, and studies of the engine technology—including hybrid electric—still must be done.
ATR and Bombardier are the leading global manufacturers of turboprop airliners today. ATR has an overwhelming majority of the backlog, between 80%-85%. Bombardier neglected sales of the Q400 during the development of the C Series. The company last year agreed to sell the program to Canada’s Viking Air. The transaction is expected to close this summer.
Bjorn’s Corner: Time to reassess the safety standards for our airliners
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 26, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In the wake of the 737 MAX crashes the standards to which Boeing and the FAA qualified and approved the 737 MAX MCAS function is questioned.
FAA has called the world’s aviation regulators to a meeting on the 23rd of May to discuss how the revised MCAS function will be approved. But it’s time to discuss more than how the updated MCAS shall pass.
2019 Outlook: ATR begins year in commanding position
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Introduction
Jan. 7, 2019, © Leeham News: ATR, the turboprop airliner OEM, enters 2019 in a commanding position.
Year-end 2018 order numbers for ATR and rival Bombardier aren’t in yet.
Through October, ATR held 74% of the backlog. Bombardier, buoyed by a large order for 25 Q400s from India’s SpiceJet (the 2027 deliveries in the Chart below), had 26% of the backlog.
Bombardier contracted to sell its Q400 program to Longview Capital Partners, parent of Viking Air. The Canadian company previously purchased all legacy de Havilland programs, including the Beaver, Twin Otter and aerial firefighting aircraft.
Viking restarted production of the Twin Otter and is gearing up to restart the Beaver.
Its plans for the Q400, Q300 and previous Dash 8 programs hasn’t been announced.
Summary
- Bombardier neglected the Q400.
- Small market over 20 years.
- ATR would like new program.
2019 Outlook: A pivotal year for Embraer
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Introduction
Embraer E190 2.
Dec. 28, 2018, © Leeham News: If it cannot be said that 2019 will be a pivotal year for Boeing, this is not the case from Embraer.
It will indeed be a pivotal year.
Embraer Commercial Aviation is to become part of a new joint venture with Boeing.
This leaves some of Embraer’s military and all of its business aviation business remaining.
EMB’s KC-390 program will move to a second joint venture in which EMB owns 51% and Boeing owns 49%.
Summary
- Year-to-date Embraer sales, financials were below expectations.
- E175-E2 has no firm orders and the conditional sale has been removed from the backlog due to international accounting standards.
- Customer service follows Embraer Commercial Aviation.
Pontifications: Nordic quietly rises to #4 world lessor
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 10, 2018, © Leeham News: In the world of commercial aviation, GECAS, Avolon, AerCap, Air Lease Corp and BOC Aviation are among the most recognizable names of lessors.
These companies make headlines with large orders of Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Air Lease is headed by Steven Udvar-Hazy and John Plueger, giants of the aircraft leasing business.
But one lessor quietly, below the radar, has become one of the largest lessors in terms of aircraft count pursuing regional aircraft, a product mostly shunned by the biggest lessors.
Nordic Aviation Capital Embraer E190-E2. Source: Nordic.
Nordic Aviation Capital last year ranked tied for fifth with asset manager BBAM, each with 404 airplanes in their portfolios, according to an Airfinance Journal 2017 survey. GECAS, AerCap, Avolon and SMBC Aviation Capital were bigger.
DAE Capital of Dubai, BOC Aviation, Air Lease Corp and Aviation Capital Group rounded out the top 10. Read more
Pontifications: Transitions, clearing the decks and turmoil at Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 26, 2018, © Leeham News: With the naming of CFO and COO officers-in-waiting, Airbus Group has completed the extreme makeover of its executive ranks.
The full transition won’t be complete until April. It’s widely been reported that these changes, including retirements and pushing out people who were not yet near retirement age, was a necessary step to settle fraud and corruption investigations undertaken by England, France, Germany and even the United States.
The latest appointments, announced last week, are for the successors of CFO Harald Wilhelm and Airbus Commercial COO Tom Williams. Dominik Asam, 49, replaces the 52 year old Wilhelm in April. Michael Schöllhorn, 53, replaces the 66 year old Williams Feb. 1. Read more
Bombardier announces sale of Q400 program, exploring options for CRJ
Nov. 8, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier today announced the sale of its slow-selling, aging Q400 turboprop program to Canada’s Viking Air.
- The press release from Viking’s parent company is here.
Viking previously purchased out-of-production Bombardier/de Havilland aircraft programs, including the Twin Otter, Beaver and CL-415 firefighting bomber.
Viking Air previously purchased the Bombardier de Havilland Twin Otter program and restarted production. Now, it’s buying the slow-selling Q400 program for a mere $300m. Photo via Google images.
Twin Otter production was restarted. The Beaver was not an is not in the cards to be restarted. The CL-415 was limping along, and no longer a contributor to Bombardier’s cash flow and profits.
“The Company entered into definitive agreements for the sale of the Q Series aircraft program and de Havilland trademark to a wholly owned subsidiary of Longview Aviation Capital Corp. for approximately $300m,” Bombardier said in a press release. It also announced the sale of other assets for $800m. The two deals are expected to close in the second half of 2019.
The low price reflects the struggles the Q400 has had for years. Bombardier lost money on the Q400 in recent years.
Bombardier also said it is considering its options for the aging, struggling CRJ program. Read more
Bombardier squeezed by ATR, Embraer, Mitsubishi
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Introduction
Oct. 22, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier has a firm backlog of 67 Q400 turboprops. ATR has a backlog of 256 through Oct. 20, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
This is an 80% market share for ATR.
Bombardier has 83 CRJ jets of all models in backlog. Embraer has 442 orders for all E-Jet models. Mitsubishi has 213 firm orders for its MRJ70/90.
This is just an 11% market share for the CRJ.
These figures illustrate why the market doubts Bombardier’s long-term future in commercial aerospace.
Summary
- The Q400 and CRJ are aging aircraft designs.
- Minor enhancements don’t address the underlying issues.
- New competition is squeezing BBD.
