Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
Major fleet decisions may not be positive for Airbus, Boeing
Pontifications is off this week.
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Introduction
March 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There are some major fleet decisions that will probably come down the pike this year at American, Delta and United airlines. Not all of them are going to be viewed positively by Airbus and Boeing.
There is also a serious warning sign emerging from the Middle East that could have serious, negative impacts on Airbus and Boeing.
Summary
- American Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-900s any more. Consolidation with US Airways appears to have made these surplus.
- Delta Air Lines, which so far eschewed any orders for the Airbus A320neos and Boeing 737 MAXes, is understood to be readying a Request for Proposals to be issued this year.
- United Airlines doesn’t want its Airbus A350-1000s any more. Picking up cheap Boeing 777-300ERs appear to have made these surplus.
- Emirates Airlines, reacting to Brexit and Donald Trump’s travel bans, is undertaking a full business review in response to a sharp drop in bookings.
CDB Leasing aims for 500-600 aircraft portfolio
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Introduction
March 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: China’s evolving commercial aerospace and aviation industry has high-profile companies such as AVIC and COMAC, and its expanding supplier based, combined with joint ventures with Western companies is well known.
Less well known is the growth in the aircraft leasing business. Increasingly, Chinese lessors are showing up on the order lists of the Big Four aircraft manufacturers. Still, there remains a bit of a mystery about the lessors and dynamics within China.
LNC spoke with the newly appointed CEO of CDB Leasing during the ISTAT conference last week in San Diego.
Peter Chang has been in the Western leasing business for decades, employed in key positions with Aviation Capital Group, ILFC and Aircastle—usually with responsibility for China.
He was named CEO of CDB in December, a move that was announced during the January Dublin conferences of Airlines Economics and Airfinance Journal. More key personnel announcements were made during ISTAT.
In an exclusive interview, LNC asked Chang about the origins of CDB, other Chinese lessors, the current policy of restricting flow of Chinese cash outside the country, the Boeing 737-10 and the Bombardier CSeries.
Here is this interview.
Long-haul cost differences
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 2, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The single-aisle, long-haul operations are on the increase. The new re-engined Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX generations are good for destinations of up to 3,000 nm, after taking into account reserves, winds and alternates planning. The Airbus A321LR is good for up to 3,500nm sectors.
Last week, we showed the Bombardier CS300 is joining the crop of single-aisles capable of 3,000nm city pairs, the distance between London and New York.
We also wrote the cost level of the single-aisle aircraft is competitive with the next step up dual-aisle, the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo.
But how do the different cost areas pan out? Is fuel cheaper or more expensive for the dual-aisle? What about the single-aisle crew costs? For clarity, we engage our cost model.
Summary
- The total costs are similar per seat mile for single and dual aisle, but the parts are not.
- The fuel costs per seat are surprisingly similar; the differences are to find in other places.
CSeries trans-Atlantic capability
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 23, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We previously described how new generation engines make the Boeing 737 MAX 8 a trans-Atlantic aircraft. The MAX 8 is smaller than the Airbus A321LR, but not the smallest single-aisle with trans-Atlantic capability. This distinction goes to the Bombardier CSeries.
We wrote about the CS100 capability to cross the Atlantic from London City Airport last year. After the article, we received new and improved data from Bombardier. The CS100 can now fly directly to US East Coast on the difficult westward leg with a business cabin of 42 seats. The updated article is here.
When we look at the improved capabilities of the CS300 (announced at Farnborough Air show last summer), this aircraft can also cross the Atlantic with a full cabin of 130 passengers.
Bombardier arranged so we could discuss this deeper with the VP CSeries program, Rob Dewar.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to compare the CS300’s suitability for long-haul to the Airbus and Boeing competition.
- The aircraft have similar range and seat mile costs. The smaller aircraft have lower trip costs.
- With Rob Dewar, we explored the potential for additional capability for the CS300.
Assessing the SSJ100 future
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Introduction
Feb. 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Sukhoi is Russia’s attempt at reentering the commercial airliner business. The SSJ100 regional jet is, by most accounts, an attractive
SSJ100 in CityJet colors. CityJet is one of two Western operators for the Russian-made airplane. Photo: Superjet International.
and efficient aircraft.
But it’s hampered by erratic production and questionable product support (largely due to the overhang of the Putin politics).
The aircraft was grounded briefly in December when a fatigue issue was found in the tail section during a routine inspection.
Summary
- Nearly 100 SSJ100s are in service.
- Two key Western customers.
- Small customers base.
- Captive Russian customers.
Norwegian’s risky fleet expansion
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 15, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In our review of Norwegian Air Shuttle last week (Norwegian from now on), we pointed out the company’s relatively weak balance sheet. It’s considerably weaker than its direct competitors.
At the same time, Norwegians’ fleet expansion is the most aggressive outside of boom markets like India or Indonesia.
Norwegian ordered 200 narrow body aircraft in 2012. It ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8s in January and 100 Airbus A320neos in June. This compares to a narrow body fleet of 70 at the time and a fleet of 100 today (mainly 737-800s). In addition, Norwegian has 30 Boeing 787 long haul aircraft on order on top of the 12 it operates today.
How much risk do these 230 incoming aircraft pose to Norwegian?
Summary:
- Presently, Norwegian absorbs 50% of incoming single aisle aircraft for own needs (Boeing 737-800 and later MAX 8).
- The other 50% (deliveries of Airbus A320neo) are leased to external operators.
- The financing need for incoming aircraft, be it for own or other’s use, is $15bn over the coming years.
- With a balance sheet of of only twice that size and 10% own equity, the going can get rough if the market weakens.
Trans-Atlantic for $75, does it work?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
February 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Norwegian will start trans-Atlantic flying between Edinburgh and New England for $75 one-way in late spring when it gets its Boeing 737 MAX 8.
The introductory price will be $69. CEO Bjorn Kjos says the operating costs of the 737 MAX 8, “which is very low,” will make this level of ticket pricing possible.
We were the first to point out (November 2014 in this article) the re-engined MAX 8 would be a trans-Atlantic enabler at a new cost level. We didn’t put the passenger ticket at $75 at the time. Time to check if it’s possible to make money with such fare prices.
Summary:
- We use our aircraft performance model to generate the operating costs between Scotland and New England/upstate New York.
- We then compare the total costs for the trip versus revenue. What is the average ticket price to break even?
- We use an aggressive cabin, the same as for the European traffic.
- Is it OK to travel at that comfort level for the seven hours over the Atlantic?
- For $75, you bet it is.
Assessing the MC-21 future
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Introduction
Feb. 9, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Russia’s Irkut designed a mainline jet to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families that, from a passenger experience
Irkut MC-21 at roll-out. Photo via Google images.
viewpoint, is the best in class.
The MC-21 has a wider fuselage than the A320 (which is wider than the 737). Seats and the aisle are the widest in the class. The overhead bin space is plentiful.
But the airplane is hampered by its environment: Russia itself.
Summary
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Posted on February 13, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, China, Comac, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, United Aircraft
737, A320, Airbus, ARJ-21, Boeing, C919, C929, Irkut, MC-21