Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
- SPEEA, Boeing at impasse over safety program, union says April 23, 2024
FAA takes first steps for re-certification of the MAX
December 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The FAA issued a draft of the updated Master Minimum Equipment List (MMEL) for the Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 on its website yesterday. It’s there to be commented on by anyone who has input to its content within 30 days.
This step is the first external sign the re-certification of the 737 MAX has begun.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 6.
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We now finalize the series about the Lion Air JT610 crash by analyzing the changes Boeing has made to the aircraft to avoid further problems with MCAS (Maneuver Characteristics Augmentation System).
The changes bring MCAS to the level it should have had from entry into service and in some aspects further.
WTO compliance decision poses new risks for Airbus, US customers
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Introduction
Dec. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: The Trump Administration Tuesday threatened to increase the tariffs on European goods after a World Trade 
Organization (WTO) compliance panel concluded Airbus and the European Union have not fully cured illegal subsidies on the A350 and some residual “harm” to Boeing remains as the A380 program winds down.
The EU and Airbus criticized the conclusions as faulty. The EU is expected to appeal by next Wednesday.
The Administration already imposed a 10% tax on the A320 family, the A330neo and A350 imported into the US. So far, the A320 family assembled at Airbus’ Mobile (AL) plant are exempt.
US airlines and lessors whose lessees are US carriers are required to pay the tax. Airbus and its customers are working the problem behind the scenes.
Summary
- The EU awaits a WTO arbitration decision next spring and is prepared to retaliate with taxes on Boeing airplanes.
- Airbus believes it will be in a stronger position than Boeing once the WTO acts.
- US customers are liable for tax.
Pontification: A320 production challenges may extend to 2022/23
By Scott Hamilton
- Update of Boeing 737 NG Pickle Fork cracking issues.
Dec. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus sees struggles for A320 production continuing throughout next year, into 2021 and spilling into 2022/23 as the Air Space cabin is introduced on the A321XLR.
Executives also see lower margins than the target 15% for the A350 and losses on the A220 continuing into the middle of the next decade.
Even so, profit targets are expected to be met and officials still want to ramp up production rates on the A320.
This mixed picture was presented by Airbus CFO Dominik Asam during series of investors meetings last month in Asia, arranged by Citi Research’s London office.
In a research note issued Nov. 22, Citi summarized the three days of meetings with investors in Australia, New Zealand and Tokyo.
FAA assumes MAX inspections, won’t slow deliveries, agency says
Boeing photo.
Nov. 29, 2019, © Leeham News: The decision by the Federal Aviation Administration this week to assume inspections of Boeing’s 737 MAXes before delivery won’t delay the company’s projected schedule, once the airplane is recertified.
The FAA Wednesday notified Boeing that federal inspectors will examine each of the hundreds of MAXes that have been built but stored since the March 13 grounding order before the airplanes can be delivered.
Boeing historically had this authority as designated representatives of the FAA.
The decision raised questions whether this would slow the delivery schedule Boeing plans.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 5.
November 29, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series about the Lion Air JT610 crash by now analyzing the final part of the flight.
We try to understand what changed when the First Officer took over the flying from the Captain and why the aircraft subsequently crashed.
Converting customers to the FSA
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 28, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing works its way through the 737 MAX crisis, all consideration whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA) is on hold.
But the Boeing sales force has been testing the market with a single-aisle concept, the Future Small Airplane (FSA) to replace the MAX.
This highly confidential effort has been underway for months. Some lessors have been approached to swap some MAX orders for the FSA—there was a supply-demand imbalance for lessor-ordered MAXes even before the grounding—and airlines across the globe have been approached to gauge interest.
Summary
- Solving a lessor placement headache;
- Older 737 NG replacement;
- Accommodating airlines that over-ordered;
- Brand new (non) metal for old carriers.
Looking beyond MAX
Nov. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing still doesn’t have a timeline for recertification of the 737 MAX and the Federal Aviation Administration isn’t going to be rushed, but aerospace analysts are increasingly looking beyond the grounding at a normalized Boeing.
It will be well into 2021 before Boeing clears the inventory of MAXes.
Nevertheless, analysts see the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel, hoping that it isn’t an oncoming train.
Boeing quietly rolled out the 737-10 MAX last week in an employee-only event. The 10 MAX is the last of the long line of 737s that began with the -100 model in 1967. It had a capacity for 110 passengers. The 10 MAX can seat 220 passengers. Boeing photo.
Bjorn’s Corner: Analysing the Lion Air JT610 crash, Part 4.
By Bjorn Fehrm
November 22, 2019, ©. Leeham News: We continue the series on analyzing the Lion Air JT610 crash by analyzing MCAS in more depth before we go to the final part of the flight.
We look at what was wrong with the initial version of MCAS, the augmentation system that caused JT610 to crash and what has changed in the updated version. Read more
Pontifications: A new setback for Boeing
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing suffered another setback last week, and this time it’s unrelated to the 737 MAX.
Boeing abandoned a robotic riveting/fastener system awkwardly called Fuselage Automatic Upright Build, or FAUB, intended to speed production.
Bloomberg first reported the abandonment. The Seattle Times has an extensive story detailing the history and objectives.
Doing these processes manually is incredibly labor intensive. FAUB, when it works, dramatically cuts the time, improves the accuracy and reduces injuries.
FAUB is but one element of a production transformation Boeing has been doing for years under the code name Black Diamond.
Converging technologies in NMA
Various automated and digital processes technologies have been in place on various 7-Series programs for years. FAUB, as The Seattle Times reported, was added to the 777 Classic line ab0ut six years ago. Part of the mission was to de-risk FAUB for application to the 777X.
Then, FAUB and the other processes were to converge for the first time on one Boeing Commercial Airplanes program with the New Midmarket Airplane, or NMA.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said on several earnings calls that the NMA was as much about production as it was about a new airplane program (or words to this effect).
But Boeing couldn’t make FAUB work.
Why not?
This is a good question and one for which there isn’t a clear answer.
It works elsewhere
FAUB, or a system very similar, is used by Airbus and other aerospace companies. It works for them, says Jessica Kinman, a senior manager for Dassault Systemes.
Kinman spoke Friday at a seminar sponsored by the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) at North Seattle College about advanced manufacturing and other transformative production processes. This was just two days after the Boeing FAUB news broke.
Among the processes illustrated: robotics working on an upright fuselage. In other words, FAUB—although this was not identified as Boeing’s FAUB.
With the NMA business plan relying in part on Black Diamond processes, of which FAUB is an element, losing FAUB isn’t going to help an already-struggling business case.
But, then, NMA is on hold at Boeing until the MAX returns to service and cash flow resumes. So, from this perspective, losing FAUB at this time isn’t especially critical.
Longer term
But longer term, Boeing needs to understand why it couldn’t make FAUB work whereas Airbus and others can.
It’s all part of the digital factory Dassault and its competitors consult on as aerospace (and other industries) transform in the future.
I’ll have more about this in a subsequent post.