Production wars coming: Airbus v Boeing

If some industry observers are concerned about the prospect of over-production now, the current state of affairs may only be the tip of the iceberg.

Airbus CEO Fabrice Bergier says he expects to boost production of the A320 and A350 families over the next few years, overtaking Boeing by 2018.

Airbus currently produces the A320 at a rate of 42 per month. The A330 rate is 10/mo and the A380 at 3/mo. Production of the first customer-destined A350 is to begin by the end of this year, with a targeted delivery in the second half of next year. Ramp-up to an initial production target of 10/mo is planned over a four year period, but the wing factory in Broughton, Wales, has a capacity for 13/mo, inferring a greater rate is already planned. Airbus is considering a second A350 production line, largely focused on the A350-1000.

Boeing currently produces the 737 at 38/mo, going to 42/mo next year. The 777 rate is 8.3/mo and the 747-8F/I rate is 1.75/mo. The 767, driven by the USAF tanker, is 1.5/mo. The 787 is ramping up to 10.mo, with a target by year end, but we believe this will be more likely in Q12014.

Boeing has notified the supply chain to consider higher rates for the 737, 767 and 787. We posted the chart below last June, reflecting the higher planning rates.

Read more

Odds and Ends: Flight test progress for A350, 787-9, CSeries; New A320, 737 cabins; JetBlue tails

Flight Test Programs: Here’s a quick update on the flight test programs underway right now:

Airbus A350XWB: The sole flying test platform in the A350XWB program has accumulated  150 hours since its first flight just before the Paris Air Show in June. The second test plane is due to enter the program this month. The program is believed to have completed its VMU (unstick) testing.

Boeing 787-9:  The second member of the 787 family has accumulated 40 flying hours since its first flight on Sept. 17. Aviation Week has a good article on the flight test progress. The airplane is nearing its flutter testing.

Bombardier CSeries: Flight Test Vehicle 1 returned to the skies Tuesday after two weeks since its first flight Sept. 16. Further software upgrades and analyzing test results were stated as the reasons for the gap. The airplane reached 25,000 feet and Mach 0.60 in its second test flight, which lasted four hours.

New A320/737 cabins: Interior maker Zodiac has designed retrofit cabins for the Boeing 737NG and the Airbus A320 families. The 737NG cabin is similar to the Boeing Sky Interior installed on every new 737, but Boeing didn’t offer this as a retrofit to the installed base. Zodiac’s design actually carries more luggage than Boeing’s. The Zodiac A320 cabin is similar.

APEX reported in 2012 that Zodiac had designed an A320 cabin. Zodiac has this detail of its 737NG cabin offering.

Only Qantas Airways has purchased Zodiac’s 737 interior and so far there are no customers for the A320 version. But this is about to change. Here is the story we wrote for APEX.

JetBlue Tails: The airline’s blog has a nice compilation of all its tail liveries here.

Odds and Ends: CSeries concludes second flight; Boeing’s impact on WA State

CSeries second flight: It was two weeks and one day to the second flight of the Bombardier CSeries, quite a bit longer than the Boeing 787-9 and the Airbus A350. The lengthier time was subject to a fair amount of scrutiny by some observers.

We’re told that Flight Test Vehicle 1 was under-going software upgrades. The fly-by-wire aircraft had taken aloft in direct law flight mode. Some of the delay to first flight had to do with software upgrades.

Bombardier collected some noise data on the second flight.

Boeing’s impact on WA State: A new study outlines the impact of the current Boeing 777 family to Washington State, and it’s pretty big. The study was commissioned by the State to understand what needs to be done to win the assembly site for the 777X. A bi-partisan Legislative panel has been appointed by Gov. Jay Inslee as part of this effort.

Other stuff:

  • Long-time readers will remember that we’ve had the opportunity to take a couple of trips on the Trident submarines Alabama and Maryland. Our interest in submarines remains keen. So when we came across an article about the plans for the successor to the Ohio class SSBN, we decided to include it today. The features talk about fly-by-wire control, video monitoring instead of the periscope and a host of other whiz-bang modern technology.
  • Airbus Military handed over the first A400M to France. If we thought the development period of commercial airliners is tough these days, the A400M may set new standards for a military program: 30 years, according to Reuters. With the plans to end Boeing’s C-17 production in 2015, we hear Boeing is developing a smaller cargo/troop transport that will compete with the A400M and be a replacement for the smaller Lockheed Martin C-130.

Frontier sold to Franke group; what of Republic CSeries order?

It had become one of the worst-kept secrets: Indigo Partners, the investment group managed by Bill Franke, former CEO of America West Airlines, has purchased Frontier Airlines from Republic Airways Holdings.

Frontier assumes all the Airbus A320neo family orders outstanding.

Franke’s Indigo bought controlling interest in Spirit Airlines and transformed it into an Ultra Low Cost Carrier. Indigo sold its shares months ago and Franke and an associate resigned from the Board of Directors, and from then on speculation was rife Indigo was gearing up to buy Frontier. Frontier CEO David Siegel has been transforming Frontier into an ULCC, but Franke is likely to take to concept further.

Republic was the launch customer for 40+40 Bombardier CSeries, Inevitably, questions will arise over the future of these orders, since these were assumed to be for Frontier.

Our information is that Republic has plans for these airplanes apart from Frontier.

LionAir says CSeries order coming: Montreal Gazette

The Montreal Gazette reports that LionAir of Indonesia expects to place an order for the Bombardier CSeries next year.

Bloomberg has some additional detail.

LionAir already has hundreds of orders outstanding from Airbus and Boeing and is essentially attempting to replicate the business model of AirAsia, with subsidiaries in a number of countries.

Odds and Ends: RR, Airbus milestone; C919; first flight videos

Rolls-Royce, Airbus Milestone: Aviation Week reports that the two companies reached a design milestone for the engine on the A350-1000.

C919 nearing ‘critical’ stage: Flight Global reports that the COMAC C919, China’s bid to challenge Airbus and Boeing in the 150-210 seat sector, is nearing a critical design stage. COMAC also discusses some of the issues with its ARJ21 in the article.

First Flight Videos: No introductions needed.

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWtPA8v-xeQ&w=560&h=315]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5SBzdG3upw&w=420&h=315]

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4HZRvwkiwk&w=420&h=315]

Odds and Ends: Next phase for CSeries; the C-17

Next phase for CSeries: Canada’s Financial Post has a report on how the Bombardier CSeries, powered by the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine, is “ushering” in a new era of quiet flight.

As we noted in a post last Monday, the engines are key to the success of the CSeries, given the promised sharply lower noise profile and fuel burn.

Speaking of noise, a noisy crowd appeared before a town hall meeting in Toronto where Porter Airlines’ proposal to fly the CSeries into the downtown Toronto City Airport was the topic. The airport, located in the lake a few hundred yards off the shoreline, is highly noise sensitive. Porter placed a conditional order for up to 30 CS100s for operation out of the airport, which is currently restricted to turbo-props for commercial service. The low noise promises for the CSeries is key to Porter’s conditional order, which will be firmed only if a tripartite governmental agreement lifts the jet ban.

Aviation Week, meanwhile, has this report about the first flight and the challenges facing the flight test program, which is currently planned for one year from last Monday’s first flight.

Keeping the C-17 alive: Boeing announced the end of production of the C-17 in 2015, but Defense News has an article suggesting how the C-17 might live on.

CSeries first flight follow up

Several news items following the first flight of Bombardier’s CSeries:

CSeries takes to air for the first time; PW also conducting own tests with new GTF engine

Update: First flight touchdown at 12:24 EDT, 2 1/2 hours.

Original Post:

Bombardier’s multi-billion dollar gamble to leap from regional airliner manufacturer into the mainline arena took off this morning at about 9:54 AM EDT. The CSeries CS100 Flight Test Vehicle 1 took to the air in clear skies at Montreal Mirabel Airport.

BBD’s flight tests are scheduled to last 12 months. There will be five Flight Test Vehicles based on the 110-seat CS100. Two more FTVs, based on the 135-seat (two class) CS300 will join the program later.

The CS100 is planned to enter service 12 months after the first flight; the CS300 is planned to enter service six months after the CS100.

Bombardier will be testing and monitoring all flight characteristics, performance and systems parameters.

Engine maker Pratt & Whitney will be keenly watching the test flights and evaluating its new engine, the P1000G Pure Power Geared Turbo Fan. This is PW’s multi-billion dollar bet to become a major player again in commercial transports. The GTF has been in development nearly 30 years.

PW, of course, spent the last several years testing the GTF as the company narrowed in on the design that has now been chosen for five platforms: the CSeries, the A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ regional jet, Embraer’s E-Jet E2 re-engine, and a shared position on the Irkut MC-21 from Russia.

PW promises fuel savings of up to 16% over today’s engines, a point better than the competing CFM LEAP. It promises reliability as good as its V2500 on the A320 family. PW undertook years of tests on the ground and flight tests on an Airbus A340 and a PW-owned Boeing 747SP, but flight tests on the CSeries-the first mating of the new engine to the first of the five platforms-will be closely scrutinized to see if performance validates all the tests.

Robert Saia, vice president of PW’s Next Generation Product Family, tells us that ground tests and PW’s Flying Test Bed (FTB) provided the data PW needed to make its promises for the engine. Validating this data on FTV 1 is only part of the engine side of the test program. Overall power capability, specific thrust requirements (notably for go-around situations and spool-up, or re-acceleration, time) will be run during the flight testing.

PW promises an engine that will enable the CSeries to have a 70% smaller noise footprint than its in-production competitors flying today, the Boeing 737-700 and Airbus A319. But this will be the first time the GTF is flown on the plane for which it was designed, so acoustical tests will be performed.

Proving the CSeries and the GTF are as quiet as promised is especially important to Bombardier. It’s sold the airplane to airlines serving noise-sensitive airports in London and Sweden. Canada’s Porter Airlines has a conditional order for up to 30 CS100s for use at Toronto’s downtown City Airport, where noise is an especially sensitive issue.

Acoustical tests don’t have to be performed at these airports, but may be done at any airport that has a certified, noise-calibrated system.

Another key element PW will be watching is the electric communication between the engine and the cockpit and validating maintenance troubleshooting guidelines that will be given to airlines, which must be compatible with the flight manual.

CSeries first flight this morning 0930 EDT

It’s 0-dark-30 here on the West Coast, waiting for the Bombardier CSeries first flight in 45 minutes.

You can watch on the Bombardier webcast here, where it will go live just before, according to Tweets. You can follow on Twitter at #CSeries.