Boeing’s tactical option for MOM sector

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Introduction

Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s not a done deal yet—the business for the so-called Boeing 797 remains a challenge. But the consensus is that Boeing will launch the program next year, for an entry-into-service around 2025.

Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.

Yet there are airlines that say they don’t want to wait that long for a new airplane.

What are their choices?

  • Acquire the Airbus A330-200. It’s available now. Fuel is cheap and is expected to remain so well into the next decade.
  • Acquire the A330-800. It’s fairly cheap. It’s about 10% less expensive to operate on a per-trip basis than the A330-200. The new engines will serve as a hedge against rising fuel prices for an indefinite future.
  • Acquire the Boeing 787-8.
  • Airbus ponders an A321neo+.
  • There’s another option that is not readily apparent.

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Can Airbus improve the A321neo further? Part 2

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

August 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we started the look into how the Airbus A321neo could be incrementally improved. To understand what can improve an aircraft, ones need to understand its limitations.

The A321neo is mainly limited by its wing, which is highly loaded. But there are ways around this limitation other than developing a new wing, an exercise which would require time, money and a new certification program.

Having understood the limitations, we now look into what can be done about them.

Summary:

  • The changes to the wings can be limited to those that are easy to do, resulting in longer range.
  • Combined with fuel capacity improvements and stronger engines it produces a very interesting aircraft.

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CSeries starts operations from London City Airport

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 09, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Bombardier (BBD) CSeries has done its first revenue flight to London City Airport. It was a scheduled Swiss International Airlines (SWISS) flight from Zurich that landed on the airport yesterday.

With the CSeries operational from London City, the route network that can be flown from the downtown airport changes significantly. Europe out to Moscow or Las Palmas is accessible and an all business class CS100 could fly direct to New York.

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Pontifications: Context is everything

By Scott Hamilton

Aug. 7, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The quote appeared on Twitter, citing the chairman of Air Lease Corp, Steven Udvar-Hazy:

“I would simply but strongly encourage the OEMs to carefully review their production rate aspirations closely and realistically.”

Hazy, often (but erroneously) called the “Godfather of leasing,” is a voice to be reckoned with. He is enormously influential with Airbus, Boeing, lessors and the industry. He’s been a launch customer of several aircraft new aircraft models and, if he’s not the Godfather of leasing (this title really belongs to the late George Batchelor), Hazy raised aircraft leasing to a fine art.

So, when the quote appeared on Twitter, I sat up in my chair.

Was Hazy suggesting Airbus and Boeing will be producing too many airplanes, creating a supply-demand imbalance?

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Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 6

By Bjorn Fehrm

August 03, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In our search for an electric regional aircraft configuration, we found that a jet aircraft requires too high power levels. The higher speeds of a jet aircraft take the power levels beyond what we can handle with an electric hybrid propulsion system.

Our ambition is to transport 50 passengers on a regional network. For networks which have sectors around 200-300nm, the turboprop is the preferred regional aircraft. We will now re-direct our hybrid regional aircraft project to this market segment.

Figure 1. An ATR 42-600 48 seat regional turboprop. Source: Wikipedia.

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Can Airbus improve the A321neo?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

August 03, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Airbus A321 has been in its own single aisle league for capacity and with the A321LR for capacity and range.

With Boeing’s launch of the 737 MAX 10, the unique position has taken a hit. With A321 occupying 40% of Airbus single aisle sales, Airbus is examining how to re-open the gap.There is much talk about an A322: an aircraft with new wing, engines and so forth. This is a major undertaking and will need new engines for its realization. Couldn’t Airbus improve the A321 as it is?

We look into what short term improvements can be done to the A321, and what these would give.

Summary
  • To understand what improvements can be made for the A321neo, one needs to understand its limitations.
  • We describe the present limits.
  • We find them in wing-loading, span-loading, engine thrust and tankage

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Mid-Year production/delivery update: Bombardier, Embraer

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Introduction

July 31, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s time for our mid-year update of the Big Four airframe manufacturers and their production/delivery outlooks.

Our update is through June 30. Although Boeing provides weekly order updates, Airbus, Bombardier and Embraer only do so monthly.

Our update data relies on the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.

Today we look at Bombardier and Embraer.

Summary
  • Bombardier’s CSeries production skyline is said by the company to be sold out through 2019, but there are some “dicey” customers as early as next year.
  • BBD’s big challenge comes in 2020, given the goal of producing 120 airplanes a year.
  • The CRJ and Q400 lines continue to be a major challenge.
  • Embraer’s production line looks nearly full in 2018, but it, too has some customer issues.

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Airbus group 2Q results: Engine deliveries decides 2017 results.

By Bjorn Fehrm

July 27, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus Group presented its 2Q2017 results this morning. The result for the first half and the full year of 2017 is decided by A320neo engine deliveries.

Out of a planned 200 A320neo deliveries for the year, Airbus could deliver 54 aircraft during the first half, with 35 completed aircraft waiting for engines on the Airbus tarmac.

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Mid-year production update at Airbus

July 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s mid-way through 2017 and LNC is taking its second look at production and delivery stream flows for the Big Four airframe manufacturers.

We examined Boeing Monday in advance of its earnings call Wednesday. Today we look at Airbus in advance of its earnings call today. We look at Bombardier and Embraer next Monday.

We use the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker as the basis for our exam.

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Is Norwegian in trouble? Part 2

By Bjorn Fehrm

July 19, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we raised the question if Norwegian Air Shuttle was in trouble. The CFO, Frode Foss, left a few days earlier. Analysts were worried and the stock dived 8%.

Last Friday, the airline presented its 2Q2017 result. An optimistic report. New destinations, increasing revenue and a profit of NOK 861m ($107m). But the stock tanked further, now down 11%. What’s behind the increased worry?

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