Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Paris Air Show Preview: Airbus
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Introduction
May 3, 2015, c. Leeham Co. The Paris Air Show is June 15-19 for the trade/industrial portion. Beginning this week, Leeham News and Comment will provide our 
Market Assessment and insight about what to expect. We begin this weekly exercise by looking at Airbus. Future posts will look at Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer and other major players at the PAS.
Summary
- First, an overarching look at what to expect;
- What to expect for Airbus at the show;
- The future of the A380neo;
- Outlook for the A330ceo/neo; and
- Outlook for the A321LR.
Can PIPs bring the A380 what Emirates Airlines wants?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
26 April 2015, C. Leeham Co: With Emirates Airlines deciding for Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engines for its 50 new A380s and admitting that it would accept that this could be for all of them if Airbus does not proceed with an A380neo, the time has come to look at how much incremental improvements can be brought on the present A380.
Our proprietary aircraft model is particularly suited for such studies as we can change any parameter and read the result off the efficiency scale. We can also play with the aircraft’s configuration and see what effect it will have. Based on Emirates’ new configuration of A380s equipped with the Trent 900 engine, we have checked what incremental improvements are doable and what would they bring.
Summary
- Our deep analysis of 18 Dec. 2014 showed that the present A380 is the most economical aircraft one can operate if one can fill it to normal load factors.
- Emirates COO Tim Clark complements this fact with the statement, “It is Emirates’ most profitable aircraft” in the press conference in London last week when announcing the Trent 900 deal with Rolls-Royce.
- Clark’s statement also covers the fact the passengers prefer A380 over other aircraft if they have a choice, it operates with higher load-factors then Emirates other aircraft.
- The A380 is a rather special design and its characteristics make Product Improvement Packages, PIPs, possible in a number of areas. We discuss which they would be and model their effect on overall performance.
- While the sought-after 10%-13% improvement would not be in there, incremental changes can cover up to half of that with more or less plausible business cases. Airbus is right now deciding which of these they see as worthwhile and introducing them.
Rolls-Royce displaces Engine Alliance for Emirates A380 order
Rolls-Royce, in a major upset, won the Emirates Airlines order to power 50 Airbus A380s ordered in November 2013. The win displaces Engine Alliance, which to now has been the sole-source provider for EK’s A380s.
Two sources confirmed the RR win. RR and Airbus did not comment on the win. EK and RR have not made any announcement. EA also did not comment.
According to one source, EK determined the RR Trent 900 was determined to be up to 4% more efficient than EA. But it’s unclear if there were other factors involved. Read more
Boeing MOM airliner; market coverage
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
12 April, 2015: In our study of the options for Boeing’s market study called Middle of the Market (MOM), we could conclude that the most likely aircraft to cover their 200-250 seat 4750nm range requirement would be a seven abreast twin aisle aircraft using their patented new oval construction, thereby saving weight and drag.
After finishing the series, Readers requested that we conclude the work by showing what market segment a family of such airliners would cover and how they would relate to the Boeing 787-8. As it is pretty straight forward to see with our aircraft performance model how much of a range of aircraft variants one can make from one base development of aircraft and engine, we decided to fulfill the wish from our Readers.
We have therefore looked at how far the concept MOM airliner could be stretched and what segment in the market would be covered by it. We also studied how much such a family would encroach on Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner market.
Summary
- A base design such as our proposed MOM dual aisle airliner can typically cover a market of 30-40 seat increments per model.
- Limiting factors are the base models wing area and span, together with engine sizing. Much depends on the engine’s stretch capability.
- A MOM airliner family would compete with the 787-8 for short- and mid-haul traffic, there presenting a more economical alternative. The Dreamliner would have long-haul for itself.
Next Gen turboprop R&D continues at Pratt & Whitney
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Introduction
Maria Della Posta, SVP Sales and Marketing, Pratt & Whitney Canada
April 5, 2015, c. Leeham Co. Pratt & Whitney Canada (PWC) continues to develop the next generation turbo prop engine despite little interest from Bombardier for a replacement for its slow-selling Q400 or from Airbus, 50% owner of ATR, dominant producer of this type of aircraft.
Maria Della Posta, SVP of sales and marketing, said PWC is confident demand will prevail over the current lack of interest to see a new airplane program launched as early as 2016 or 2017–though she hedges that this could slip a year or two.
Summary
- In the meantime, PWC continues to undertake Performance Improvement Packages (PIPs) for its ubiquitous PW100 series that is now in its 38th iteration.
- Emerging market ambitions could create new opportunities for PWC to put its next engine on new entrant turbo prop producers.
- Airlines seek a new, larger turbo prop than the Q400 and ATR 72.
Bombardier CS300 analysis vs A319neo, 737-7
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
March 29, 2015, c. Leeham Co: Bombardier’s big bet in the aeronautics sector, CSeries, is well into flight testing, now more than half way toward the 2,400 hours required by Transport Canada before certification can be granted. The first aircraft to be certified will be the smaller 110 seat CS100 but the market is most interested in the larger 135 seat CS300, which has 63% of present orders and commitments, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Cseries largest model, CS300. Source: Bombardier.
Bombardier’s new CEO, Alan Bellemare, told reporters last week that the CS100 would be certified during 2015 with entry into service slipping into 2016. The CS300, which is a direct challenger to Airbus’ A319neo and Boeing’s 737-7, should follow six months after CS100. With the CS300 in flight testing and going into service next summer, we decided to have a deeper look at CS300 and its competitors.
Summary
- A319 and 737-7 are shrinks of the market’s preferred models, A320 and 737-8, and as such not the most efficient models.
- The CS300 is the series center-point and it shows. The modern design beats the Airbus and Boeing designs on most counts.
- Part of the modern concepts in CSeries is the well-conceived Pratt & Whitney PW1000G geared turbofan.
- PW’s 73 in fan version of the PW1000G for CSeries is slightly less efficient that the 81 in version for A319neo but CS300 lower weight makes sure this is more than compensated for.
Bjorn’s Corner: Intro, LCC long range and CFM’s LEAP
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 19, 2015: This is the first version of my Corner where I will comment on the aeronautical world as I see it. It will be a mix of tech things (I am an engineer) and my view on things from my European vantage point. Enough on reason and style; lets get started.
LCC goes long range: After AirAsiaX and Norwegian, now Ryanair is going long range, according to Irish Times (or not; the latest news from Robert Wall of The Wall Street Journal is that the board has not approved a long range business plan).
Be that as it may with Ryanair, the key thing is that what happened to the majors on short haul is about to hit them on long haul as well. Short haul LCCs brought about a change in airline economics and in single aisle aircraft. The LCCs, followed by Ultra LCCs, started the trend to denser and denser configurations where the latest trends are sub 29 inch pitch slim-seats and lavatories that started at 37 inch getting slimmed to 31 inch. It has also brought about changes in galleys and emergency exits configurations, all leading to aircraft with higher and higher capacities.
This is a pivotal year for the A380 as Airbus considers neo, PIPs
Introduction
March 15, 2015: This is a pivotal year for the future of the Airbus A380.
Tim Clark, the president of Emirates Airline, increased the pressure for development of an A380neo when he said he’d buy up to 200 of the prospective re-engined airplane, potentially doubling the number of neos he previously said he’d buy.
It was widely expected that if Airbus proceeds with a neo, Rolls-Royce will provide the engine. Market Intelligence, however, indicates development of the Advance engine may be running into challenges. Airbus is now talking with Engine Alliance about upgrades to the GP7200.
Summary
- Customers take wait-and-see approach to prospect of a New Engine Option.
- Mixing engine types a consideration for some.
- Some at Boeing quietly rooting for Airbus to proceed.
Pontifications: A350 launch aid, Emirates and the A380, Bombardier and U-Turn Al
By Scott Hamilton
March 5, 2015: A350 Launch Aid: Boeing and the US Trade Representative got in a big twist around 2006 when Airbus said it would accept more than $1bn in launch aid from Germany for the A350. At that time, the US and European Union had recently launched the international trade complaints before the World Trade Organization (WTO), but the A350 came after the complaint was filed and the WTO refused the US request to add it to the proceedings.
Germany, in a political snit, later said it would withhold part of the launch aid because Airbus hadn’t promised the number of jobs in connection with the program to Germany that politicians wanted.