Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing ponders restart of 767-300ER passenger line
Oct. 19, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing is nearing a decision whether to restart the 767-300ER passenger line, LNC has learned.
The company is in discussions for 50-60 aircraft, market intelligence indicates.
Boeing declined comment, saying it does not discuss conversations with customers.
United Airlines Boeing 767-300ER. Photo via Google images
But sources indicate that the prospect of restarting the 767-300ER passenger line could serve as interim lift until the prospective entry-into-service of the Boeing New Midrange Aircraft, now commonly called the 797, for the Middle of the Market sector.
LNC on Aug. 14 speculated that relaunching the 767-300ER could be a good tactical move on Boeing’s part.
Pontifications: JADC 20-year forecast: VLA, NMA and other data
By Scott Hamilton
July 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: The Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) just published its 2017-2037 jet and turboprop forecast. JADC forecasts a demand for 33,336 jet airliners and some 2,000 turboprops.
JADC is partly owned by Mitsubishi, which is developing the MRJ70/90 and which is on several Boeing programs.
I like the JADC forecast because it segments the seating categories in more detail than Airbus and Boeing and somewhat differently than Bombardier and Embraer.
I also view JADC as having less of an axe to grind than the Big Four OEMs.
A couple of quick take-aways:
Business case for NMA remains uncertain
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Introduction
July 17, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We’re half way through 2017. Boeing reported orders through July 11, a week ago. Airbus won’t update its July orders until the end of the month.
Through July 11, Boeing reported 116 net wide-body orders: 15 for the 767, 33 for the 777 and 75 for the 787. Net cancellations of -7 for the 747 are included in the net 116 figure.
The 15 767s were not commercial models, however, but 767-2C tankers for the USAF.
Over at Airbus, none of China’s 40 commitments announced July 5 for 40 A350s are in the June summary, and won’t be in the Orders tally until the commitments turn into firm orders. Through June, airbus had net 26 widebody orders: three A330-200s and 29 A350-900. There were cancellations of four A330-800s and two A380s.
If the 40 China A350s were included, this would bring Airbus to 66 widebody orders, still well short of Boeing’s YTD figure.
Summary
- Airbus product gap widens as A330-200/800 stalls.
- Boeing 787 strength comes from 787-9; 787-8 remains minor player.
- Middle of the Market business case still unproved.
Interest seen in Boeing’s “797,” says lessor
May 16, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Air Lease Corp., one of the world’s leading lessors, sees
John Plueger, CEO of Air Lease Corp.
a “quite a bit” of interest from its customers in the prospective Boeing Middle of the Market aircraft, says its CEO, John Plueger.
Speaking at the Airfinance Journal conference in New York today, Plueger acknowledged with some push from moderator Mark Streeter of JP Morgan that pricing needs to be in today’s dollars in the $70m-$75m range.
How Airbus can kill the Boeing 797
Artisit concept of the Boeing 797. Rendering via Google images.
May 10, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Airbus can kill the business case for the prospective Boeing 797, the New Midrange Aircraft also known as the Middle of the Market Airplane,
- Reuter’s Tim Hepher has this story.
- CNN’s Jon Ostrower has this story.
All it has to do is move first, instead of waiting for Boeing to launch the 797, something considered likely next year.
If Airbus launched what is commonly called the A322, a larger, longer-range version of the A321neo, the new version would become a true replacement for the Boeing 757, meet economics of the smaller 797, which has a working title of the 797-6, at a much lower capital cost.
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 6
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 27, 2017, © Leeham Co.: We have in several articles gone through the sizing of an NMA (New Midrange Aircraft). We looked at the fuselage, cabin, wings and engines. Now we will sum the exercises and look at the performance of the resulting aircraft.
Boeing is seriously considering launching an NMA. The key to the launch decision will be the airplane’s economics: for development and production as well as operation.
The idea is the NMA shall have “twin aisle comfort with single aisle economics.” We will now use or performance model to analyze if the final aircraft has these characteristics.
Summary:
- An NMA designed to the principles in our articles will have a seven abreast dual aisle cabin. The cabin will increase passenger comfort in the 200 to 260 seat range and speed ground operations.
- Careful design of the fuselage, paired with a modern wing and engines, would produce an NMA with “dual aisle comfort and single aisle economics.”
7M7 is key to Boeing’s future
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Introduction
An enthusiast’s concept of the Boeing 797. Image via Google.
April 24, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Boeing faces growing challenges this year as airplane sales slow, production of the 777 Classic declines, its new Global Services unit prepares to formally launch and a decision whether to authorize a sales offering for the New Midrange Airplane looms.
We’ve spent a lot of time covering slowing sales and declining 777 production. Tomorrow, we’ll have a special report on the ambitious Global Services strategy.
We’ve also spent a lot of time on the Boeing NMA. LNC’s Bjorn Fehrm last week presented number three in a paywall series on the NMA, looking at it from a technical viewpoint. We’ll take a look at it from a strategic point of view today.
Summary
- There is a demand for the NMA that is commercially viable.
- Middle of the Market sector is larger than typically defined.
- 7M7 is key to Boeing’s future.
Could an NMA be made good enough? Part 5
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 20, 2017, © Leeham Co.: After defining the fuselage and wings, it’s now time for the engines. We go through the sizing criteria for engines for airliners and find the size of engine that is needed for the NMA.
The NMA will need engines which are larger than the single aisle engines for Airbus’ A320neo and Boeing’s 737 MAX. But they will be smaller than the next size up for modern engines, the GEnx-2B for Boeing’s 747-8.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
This means the NMA will need new engines, at least 50% larger than the present engines designed for A320neo and 737 MAX.
Summary:
- An NMA engine will be sized by V2 safety speed or Maximum Continuous Thrust (MCT) criteria.
- The normal Top of Climb (ToC) sizing point will be less stressing for a twin engine airliner like NMA.
Could an NMA be made good enough, Part 4?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 13, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Last week we finished the sizing of the fuselage for an NMA design. Now we continue with the wing. We go through the key parameters that will decide the performance of the wing and the aircraft.
The NMA is a critical design case. The performance envelope has to be just right. Too high and the economics of the aircraft won’t work, both for purchase price and operational costs.
Figure 1. The NMA takes more and more the shape of a 767 replacement (A United 767-200). Source: United
Summary:
- Wing design is the mixing of conflicting requirements to a successful compromise.
- The NMA wing will use the design principles of the Boeing 787/777X wings but will be different in area, size and plan-form.
- The wing is sizing the engines, something we will look at in the next article.
Boeing’s tactical option for MOM sector
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Aug. 14, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s not a done deal yet—the business for the so-called Boeing 797 remains a challenge. But the consensus is that Boeing will launch the program next year, for an entry-into-service around 2025.
Boeing 797 concept. Source: Boeing.
Yet there are airlines that say they don’t want to wait that long for a new airplane.
What are their choices?
Read more
7 Comments
Posted on August 14, 2017 by Scott Hamilton
air force tanker, Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Delta Air Lines, GE Aviation, Leasing, Leeham News and Comment, Middle of the Market, MOM, Pratt & Whitney, United Airlines, US Airways
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