Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
Bombardier squeezed by ATR, Embraer, Mitsubishi
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Introduction
Oct. 22, 2018, © Leeham News: Bombardier has a firm backlog of 67 Q400 turboprops. ATR has a backlog of 256 through Oct. 20, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
This is an 80% market share for ATR.
Bombardier has 83 CRJ jets of all models in backlog. Embraer has 442 orders for all E-Jet models. Mitsubishi has 213 firm orders for its MRJ70/90.
This is just an 11% market share for the CRJ.
These figures illustrate why the market doubts Bombardier’s long-term future in commercial aerospace.
Summary
- The Q400 and CRJ are aging aircraft designs.
- Minor enhancements don’t address the underlying issues.
- New competition is squeezing BBD.
Pontifications: Market Intelligence from NY
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 22, 2018, © Leeham News: I was in New York City last week for a series of meetings. Here’s what “the street” is talking about. I make no judgment calls about whether the thoughts are on target or not. Read more
Assessing A320 production rate interest in >70/mo
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Introduction
Sept. 17, 2018, © Leeham News: With the supply chain under major stress and Airbus and Boeing trying to recover from scores of “gliders” sidelined at airports without engines, each company nevertheless continues to study production rate increases for the A320 and 737 families.
Airbus publicly has said it’s looking at rate 70/mo. Boeing publicly acknowledges it’s looking at rate 63/mo.
Supply chain sources tell LNC Airbus is studying an even higher rate, into the “70s,” at early as 2020—a date that most consider out of the question.
Boeing is known to be considering a rate of 70/mo for its most profitable program.
Today, LNC looks at the A320 scenario. A future post will examine the 737.
Summary
- Airbus is scheduled to deliver more A320 members in 2019 than production capacity. Some of these may be parked backlog airplanes.
- 2020-2021 sold out at rate 60/mo, 2022-2023 nearly so.
- Rate increase to 70/mo opens opportunities for Airbus, pressure on Boeing.
Mitsubishi shouldn’t be worried over support following Boeing-Embraer deal: BGS chief
July 18, 2018, © Leeham News, Farnborough: Mitsubishi’s MRJ will be supported even if Boeing and Embraer complete a deal to form a new company in which Boeing is an 80% shareholder.
Embraer’s E175 and E190 jets will compete with Mitsubishi’s MRJ70 and MRJ90 respectively. Boeing entered into a product
and parts support agreement with Mitsubishi when the MRJ program was launched.
Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Global Services, said in an interview with LNC that despite the competition, BGS will honor the Boeing commitment to Mitsubishi.
BGS already supports Airbus aircraft, which of course fiercely compete with Boeing.
MRJ’s GTF flameout traced to manufacturing issue
Editor’s note: The Farnborough Air Show begins next week. Mitsubishi is expected to have a flying display of the MRJ90 at an international air show for the first time. This is the last of three stories from Mitsubishi’s MRJ program update in Moses Lake (WA) last month.
By Dan Catchpole
July 10, 2018, © Leeham News: An engine flameout in August 2017 that left the Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) test fleet grounded for several weeks was caused by a manufacturing quality issue on a component in the Pratt & Whitney geared turbofan’s accessory gearbox, according to a Mitsubishi executive.
Source: Mitsubishi.
Related Stories
- MRJ delays over, execs insist (now open to all readers).
- Laser focus for MRJ program (now open to all readers).
MRJ program chief Alex Bellamy said the manufacturing quality problem caused a machined component to suffer a durability issue, leading to flameout.
Laser focus for MRJ program
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By Dan Catchpole
July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: It’s been two years since a small army of Japanese aerospace workers landed in Moses Lake, a sleepy former Air Force base town in rural Central Washington. The Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MAC) will be in Moses Lake for another four or five years as it nudges its new regional jets—the MRJ70 and MRJ90—into service.
Japan’s All Nippon Airways is the launch customer and first operator for the Mitsubishi MRJ90. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first Mitsubishi Regional Jet, the MRJ90, originally was supposed to enter into service in 2013, but myriad develop delays have dogged the sleek jet, which now is slated to deliver to launch customer All Nippon Airways in mid-2020.
Delays over for MRJ program, execs insist
By Dan Catchpole
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July 3, 2018, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. executives insist the MRJ90 is past the seemingly endless delays that have dogged its development. It is on track toward type certification and first delivery in mid-2020.
MRJ90 flight test vehicles at Mitsubishi’s Moses Lake (WA) flight testing facility. Source: Mitsubishi.
The problem is when it arrives, the 81-seat MRJ90 will be the wrong fit for the US market. Program executives praised the plane’s advanced design during media briefings at the MRJ flight test center in Moses Lake (WA), but when they spoke about market opportunity, it was for the smaller MRJ70, which is at least three years away from entering service.
Starting in 2022, Mitsubishi expects a wave of 50-seat regional jet retirements in the North American market. And North America—specifically the United States—”is the most important market for us to make this business successful,” said Yugo Fukuhara, Mitsubishi Aircraft vice president and general manager of sales and marketing.
Farnborough Air Show: No NMA, unlikely A321 Plus, no Boeing-EMB tie up
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Introduction
June 25, 2018, © Leeham News: Little in the way of excitement is expected at the Farnborough Air Show next month.
There won’t be any launch of the oft-talked about Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft (NMA, aka 797).
Airbus continues to be coy about its response to the NMA. Studies about an A321neo Plus or Plus-Plus have been talked about almost as long as Boeing has been discussing the NMA. More recently, now there’s talk of an A321 XLR.
Summary
- Expectations for incremental airplane orders at the show should be low.
- No NMA program launch.
- Doubtful if Airbus launches A321neo enhancements.
- Airbus-C Series makes its debut—but to what end?
- Mitsubishi to showcase MRJ.
- Bombardier renews emphasis on Q400, CRJ.
- Embraer looks for order boost.
Spies and industrial spying
By Scott Hamilton
Scott Hamilton
March 27, 2018, © Leeham News, Bainbridge Island (WA): The unexpected US order to close the Russian Consulate in Seattle this week set off a media frenzy in this city because two reasons cited were the proximity of the consulate to Boeing and two US naval bases, Bremerton and Bangor.
There is a third, smaller one, in Everett, but this wasn’t mentioned.
Bremerton is a major repair-and-overhaul base for ships, ranging from aircraft carriers to submarines to frigates and support ships.
Bangor is home to Trident nuclear missile subs and the spy sub, USS Jimmy Carter.
I live on Bainbridge Island, a stone’s throw to Bangor (ground zero in a North Korean nuclear missile attack?) and a 45-minute drive to Bremerton. It’s 45 minutes from here to Boeing Field via ferry and car.
Boeing, of course, is the principal home to Boeing Commercial Airplanes. The commercially-based P8 Poseidon and the KC-46A tankers are built here.
NMA focus needs to be on engines
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Introduction
March 19, 2018, © Leeham Co.: As the market awaits a decision by Boeing whether to launch the New Midrange Aircraft (NMA, or 797), focus has been on the aircraft’s definition and market demand.
It should be on the engines.
It doesn’t matter whether Boeing designs a fabulous airplane that’s the next best thing to sliced bread. What matters is whether the engines will be ready in time for Boeing’s suggested entry-into-service and if they are, whether they will be reliable out of the box.
The recent track record isn’t all that encouraging. Neither is Boeing’s preferred timing.
Summary
- CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce each had problems with their new engines. All continue.
- The Boeing NMA requires brand new engines, not derivatives.
- Engine development and certification within the Boeing preferred timeline is sporty at best.