Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
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Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 01, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: In Part 1, we concluded that the existing Il-96 fuselage cross section would be suitable for a new Russian-Chinese wide-body. This means that a lot of experience and existing designs for fuselage sections can be re-used.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
Most importantly, it means that mock-ups and cabin sections can be made early in the project to start work on new and better cabin equipment. This is an area where the partners really lag their western competitors.
We will now look at what aircraft capacities can be conceived with the existing Il-96-300 and -400 fuselages and what changes will be necessary to achieve the targeted sizes that Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) have communicated.
Summary:
- The IL-96 fuselage can be re-used for a Russian-Chinese wide-body.
- The existing IL96-300 cabin is on the small side whereas the Il-96-400 cabin is a bit larger than needed.
- The project will likely choose an intermediate size fuselage to reach the targeted 250 to 280 passenger capacity.
Weekly analyst report: Boeing’s price freeze
Aug. 31, 2016: The dog days of August continue, with limited news and research notes from the Wall Street aerospace analysts.
A few items of note from the past week:
- Boeing’s price list freeze for its 7-Series airplanes drew a yawn from Buckingham Research but some negative energy from Goldman Sachs.
- Airline traffic is slowing (JP Morgan).
- Book:bill numbers drew the attention of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Narrow-body aircraft retirements are down, but storage of Boeing 777s and Airbus A330s are up (JP Morgan).
Boeing’s Joe Sutter, father of 747, dies at 95
Aug. 30, 2016: Boeing and aviation legend Joe Sutter died at age 95.
The father of the 747, and instrumental in the development of the 727 and 737, Sutter remained active in Boeing well into his 90s.
Boeing issued the following statement today:
Will United’s new president open door for Airbus?
Scott Kirby moves from president of American Airlines to president of United Airlines. Photo via Google images.
Aug. 30, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Will Scott Kirby’s move from president of American Airlines to the same position at United Airlines lead to a major shift in fleet acquisition at the Chicago-based carrier?
This is an intriguing question that may take some time to answer.
Kirby spent 20 years with American CEO Doug Parker through their careers at America West Airlines, US Airways and American.
Pontifications: “Troubled” 787 is a thing of the past
LNC has been beset by technical issues since Aug. 17 that interferes with e-mail notification as well as links to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin. We’re working on it with Wordpress.
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 29, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Faulty engines dominated commercial aviation news last week.
First was ANA’s Boeing 787s were hit by issues with its Rolls-Royce engines. Corrosion was found on key engine parts. ANA cancelled flights to inspect and repair the engines.
Unfortunately, some media characterized the matter as the “latest” to hit the “troubled” 787. The London Telegraph is one example.
This characterization, of course, refers to the history of the 787 with its design and production challenges and later by the grounding from the lithium-ion battery fires.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The aircraft
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August29, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: We have now covered the capabilities of the joint venture partners for a Russian-Chinese wide-body and its possible market. Now we will look at what kind of aircraft such a cooperation can create, given technology and other constraints.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
There have been bits and pieces leaked to media from Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).
We will look at what has been said and combine that with our knowledge of existing and future technological capabilities of the parties to make predictions for what aircraft the project can produce.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-bodywill be made to cover the “small wide-body”market.
- Initial size will be a 250-280 passenger wide-body
- The aircraft will be a twin with engines from either GE or Rolls-Royce.
- Range with 280 passengers will be 6,500nm.
Russian-Chinese wide-body: The market
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required.
Introduction
August 25, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Having dissected the players behind the Russian-Chinese wide-body, it’s time to look at what market such an aircraft aims to capture.
Figure 1. Concept for new wide-body airliner. Source: United Aircraft.
The project participants, Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) and Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC), say they intend to make a 250-280 seat aircraft with a 6,500nm range.
We will look at what market such an aircraft can address from its Entry into Service (EIS) 2025 and over the next 10 years. We will also discuss the constrains that emerges with UAC and COMAC entering the market as new players.
Summary:
- The Russian-Chinese wide-body covers a market segment called “small wide-body” in the Global market forecast made by Airbus and Boeing.
- Based on data in these forecasts, the dominant market during the first 10 years after a 2025 Entry into Service (EIS) would be a captive Chinese market.
Trump or Clinton will be OK for defense industry: Analyst
Aug. 24, 2016: It’s a light week for relevant commentary from the US aerospace analysts.
- Buckingham Research takes a view on the election of either Trump or Clinton on the defense industry.
- India’s Jet Airways will defer 10 Boeing 787s (Wells Fargo).
- Aeroflot will transfer its 22 787s to another company (Wells Fargo.)
AvWeek obtains Boeing sales targets
Aug. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s the kind of leak that drives a company crazy. Aviation Week obtained an internal Boeing sales target list that is well below a book:bill of 1:1 this year. The math shows that Boeing would have a book:bill of just 0.72:1.
Even this may be optimistic.
The sales target data, obtained by Guy Norris, indicates Boeing had a target of 88 777 sales and 88 787 sales this year.
The list does not distinguish between 777 Classics and 777Xs. So far this year, Boeing booked just eight 777 Classic orders.
It’s booked 19 787 orders.
The target list show 14 orders for the 747-8. Four already have been booked.
The order figures above are through August 16. This sales target list is a few months old and may have changed since then.
Boeing’s guidance has been 1:1.
Pontifications: Getting there from here on Boeing’s deferred production costs
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 22, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing’s deferred production and tooling costs for the 787 program continue to be a focus-item by some
Boeing 787-9. Photo: Boeing.
aerospace analysts, media and observers: will the company be able to recover these costs, or will it inevitably have to take a write down.
Some Wall Street aerospace analysts believe Boeing can’t recover all the costs.
For example, Ron Epstein of Bank of America Merrill Lynch concluded Boeing will only recover about $14bn of the $29bn in deferred production costs.
Rob Spingarn of Credit Suisse pegs the recovery number at about $22bn.
These figures are before Boeing took a $1bn pre-tax “reallocation” to research and development for costs related to two more of the first six test airplanes last month in advance of the July 27 earnings call.
Boeing officials are confident they will recover the costs. LNC spoke with Wall Street analysts and Boeing to paint a picture of how Boeing expects to accomplish this.
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Posted on August 22, 2016 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing, Leeham News and Comment
787, 787-10, 787-8, 787-9, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Boeing, Credit Suisse, Dennis Muilenburg, Greg Smith, Rob Spingarn, Ron Epstein