Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 5. Turbofan design problems April 26, 2024
- Airbus 1Q2024 results: Airbus CEO: “A350 in-service experience drives positive reputation and orders” April 25, 2024
- A350-1000 or 777-9? Part 3 April 25, 2024
- Boeing CEO promises company is turning around…again April 24, 2024
- Solid start for stand-alone GE Aerospace despite cuts to LEAP output April 23, 2024
MTU investors day: views of its engine programs, future airplane timelines; separately, Embraer COO interview
Figure 1. Technical milestones have been passed on PW GTF programs for the applications on Bombardier, Airbus, Mitsubishi and Irkut airplanes and are approaching for Embraer. Source: MTU Investors Day. Click to enlarge.
Nov. 30, 2014: MTU Investors Day: MTU is a major participant in engine development and supplies, participating on the GEnx, GTF and GEnx program. It’s also a member of the joint venture in International Aero Engines and it’s a major player in the aftermarket Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) sector, providing a serious competitive alternative to the aftermarket contracts offered by the engine OEMs. Its held an investors day conference Nov. 25. Highlights included:
- Milestones have been passed on the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fanengine for the Bombardier CSeries, Airbus A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ and Irkut MC-21; and are on schedule for the Embraer E-Jet E2.
- The success of the GTF is requiring huge production commitments.
- The large number of airplane/engine programs require a major ramp-up of production during the next few years.
- The major investment in new engines is largely over for now, leading to the expectation of long-term revenue from MRO.
Odds and Ends: Airbus to lower A330 rate; Mitsubishi MRJ rollout Saturday; Delta retiring 747s; Enders slams German government; MC-21
MC-21 will claim 10% of world market: So Irkut claims. Here’s a 10 minute video.
Update, 7am PDT Oct. 17: Airbus announced it will lower production rates on the A330ceo from 10 to nine a month in 4Q2015. We believe this is a first-step. The backlog drops sharply in 2016. The first A330neo isn’t planned for delivery until December 2017 and we believe rates will come down once more in advance. At the Farnborough Air Show, John Leahy, COO Customers, said he believes rates for the neo will settle in around 7-8 a month/ we think ceo rates will come down to reflect this.
Mitsubishi rolls out MRJ Saturday: You can watch it live, at 2pm Japan time.
The MRJ 90 is Japan’s first home-grown commercial airliner since the YS-11 turbo-prop, which entered service in 1961. As we noted Wednesday, the MRJ has collected a good number of orders, but the customer base in small.
The MRJ is 3 1/2 years late.
Aviation Week has this feature.
Here is a link to a brochure.
Delta retiring 747s: Delta Air Lines said during its earnings call Thursday that it will retire its Boeing 747-400s in 2017. These airplanes were acquired in the merger of Northwest Airlines, which was the launch customer of the 747-400. Delta is replacing the 747s with twin-aisle, medium-sized airplanes.
Enders slams German government: Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus Group, slammed the German government over its position on defense exports.
Enders, a German, has long been critical of German government policies, and has been moving operations into France as a result.
We find Enders’ candor to be refreshingly frank. Most CEOs tend to hedge their opinions.
New and Derivative airplanes: Some good, some not; Part 1
First of two parts.
Earlier this year, Airbus officials said they will concentrate on improving existing airplanes once the A350 enters service.
Boeing followed by saying it would not take any “moonshots” and develop new airplanes, at least for some indeterminate time.
The sentiment on the part of both companies is understandable if not disappointing for aviation purists who want to see new and innovative airplane models rather than made-over sub-types.
This is one of those cases where both schools of thought are right. (Text continues below photo.)
Later this month, we will unveil a new, updated Leeham News and Comment with a combination of paid and free content. Watch this space for more information.
New airplanes are, to state the obvious, very expensive to develop and in this increasingly technological age and demand for “smarter” airplanes that are more fuel efficient and which try to improve passenger experience while cramming as many revenue-paying passengers into the airplane as possible, becoming more and more challenging. Where it once was possible to bring an airplane to market within four years of launch, today airframers routinely look at seven years and even eight. Even derivative airplanes are now taking six or seven years to enter service from launch.
Odds and Ends: Order bubble, revisited; MRJ lands JAL; MH370
What order bubble, Revisited: We recently asked the question, What order bubble?
The orders don’t stop coming. Boeing landed a big fish with a large order from BOC Aviation, bringing net orders to 918–easily on the path to 1,000. Airbus lags at just over 800 net orders through July (it only reports monthly, not weekly as does Boeing), but we see Airbus hitting 1,000 this year, too. There were 121 MOUs announced at the Farnborough Air Show for the A330neo and we expect most of these to firm up, if not all. (There will likely be some swaps by Air Asia from the A330ceo to the neo, however.) We expect more A320 orders as well.
Boeing’s BOCA order was the lessor’s largest ever and included two 777-300ERs. Boeing is attempting to combine -300ER orders with 737 and 777X deals in order to bridge the production gap between the 777 Classic and the 777X.
GE Aviation and GE Engines naturally benefited from the 737 and 777 BOCA deal, since they are the sole-source engine providers on the airplanes.
MRJ lands JAL: Japan Air Lines ordered 32 Mitsubishi MRJ90s for delivery from 2021. This is the fourth customer for MRJ. JAL’s rival, All Nippon Airways, was the launch customer for the MRJ90. JAL also ordered up to 27 Embraer E-Jets.
MH370: New information emerged this week on the flight path of Malaysian Airlines MH370, which disappeared on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing and is believed to have crashed in the south Indian Ocean.
We’ve been asked by local media if MAS can survive. We believe it can, given the government backing. It’s the flag carrier and we don’t think Malaysia will allow the airline to go out of business. Korean Air Lines survived following a series of crashes and the Soviet shootdown of KAL 007 during the 1980s. MAS may become a very different airline, but we think it will continue.
Leeham News launches Premium plan, companion to free content; engineer joins staff
Free content.
Leeham News and Comment (LNC) today launched a Premium subscription plan as a companion to free content.
LNC has provided news and commentary since February 2008, providing industry-leading information and insightful analysis, principally focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer but also including emerging challengers to the Big Four OEMs, the leading engine manufacturers, suppliers and airline news.
LNC has been a leading resource of news and comment throughout the commercial aviation industry and its professional followers in the aerospace supply chain, investment analysts and the media.
Since the first of this year, LNC increasingly provided more and more technically-based content. This content is valuable and supplements the industry-leading news and reporting that has been provided since 2008. We are pleased to announce the addition to our staff, Bjorn Fehrm, who focuses on technical evaluation and complements the strategic expertise of Scott Hamilton, the founder of LNC and Leeham Co. consultancy.
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Posted on October 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi
737-9, 757, 757 replacement, A321NEO, Airbus, Bjorn Fehrm, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi